Thanks, fake Raiseyou. As I have no position I don't need a warning. Missing out on gains happens all the time. Only losing money gets me upset. And folks on SHU as well, given the nasty tone overt there amongst the pumps with frayed nerves and stagnant portfolios.
My tummy tells me these wells are a disaster just like Wahoo. Hession's "tone" and talking about 1 in 10 success rates etc., coupled with months and months of total silence, coupled with a constant share price bleed keeps me on the sidelines.
My hope is that they fess up on the next CC or thereabouts and the market bins the speculative upside in the other licenses. If the overall market stays weak I wouldn't be surprised to print a 3-handle on the stock, but I'd be a buyer in the 40s likely based on E/A.
Another thing to tuck away in the back of your mind is if the appraisal wells A4 and A5 blow the timelines out the market might REALLY get spooked.
With buoyant markets I didn't mind trading this around and don't disagree with the Bernstein analysis, but I see way better value out there now.
For example I just bought Teck Resources. Traded down hard with met coal, but given where met coal is about 90% of their profit is coming from their substantial zinc and copper operations. Coppper's a wildcard but zinc fundamentals are strong and major mines are closing next year, and new mines don't work at current (yet decent) zinc pricing. The hidden gravy is that they own 20% of the massive Suncor-lead Fort Hills Oil Sands project - it is sucking up substantial cash flow now but is coming onstream in 2017. Their cash on hand is enough to cover debt maturities for next 5 years and majority of their debt is bonds that mature beyond 2036. Trading at 5x cash flow. On met coal they are second quartile on costs - higher cost competitors are taking production offline and/or selling below their cash costs - when that market corrects over next 12-18 months TCK's profit could explode, at the same time Fort Hills comes on stream. This was a $65 stock in 2011 and has been pounded down to $19. I think 2x to 3x over 2 to 3 years is in the cards. The risk is way lower than IOC IMHO and I even get a 4.3% dividend yield whilst I wait.
Actually that was the sell. As disclosed at the time I bought around 57.70 and sold in the high 58s after getting spooked. No position now. I kind of want the horrible well news behind us before buying.
I am out at 58.75. Only a buck but I don't like the feel of it. They need to get the disappointing well news out, A nice tank on that would be an interesting buy.
Come on, Hession, let's hear about "safety issues" at Bobcat and Raptor.
I like the fake Coolaid better.
BTW it's "Liar In Chief" not Liar AND Chief.
For example: you are the Racist D-Bag In Chief
Just over 4 years since the "first bottle of Dom" was popped and retirement assured (with a $63 stock price).
Whatever happend to hemi?
Nope - I actually had an order in for 58.50 but never got hit.
Market feels a bit squishy right now so I may hold off next week. I've also found some compelling longs recently so playing with IOC dynamite on the long side feels a bit like Russian Roulette :)
Nope. I think Neil did a good job and I told him so. I Just think there are holders that are hopefull on Bobcat and Raptor so I expect a sell off if and when they turn into Wahoo disappointments.
Hi MS. Interesting idea. I'm trying to trade the day-to-day volatility a bit (the $58 to $61 range). I'm a bit worried about holding it very long as I think we have bad drilling news coming which will hopefully tank the stock, at which point I would probably buy (e.g. high 40s or low 50s). Options may be interesting - will play around with some strategies. Maybe a selling a put spread to capture some premium but protecting from a debacle.
For another withdrawal from ATM machine.
Honestly I'm a long term investor 99% of the time. I've just stared at IOC trading for years it's one of the few that I have a "feel" for. If I'm right 55% of the time on these trades I'm happy.
Yup. I've been long IOC 3 times now - Dec 6 2013 (played the bounce after the ball stomp), a few weeks ago, and yesterday/this morning. I posted each in near real-time. Just for fun. Clipping 2-5% over hold periods measured in hours isn't too bad.
I've toyed with "investing" but am hesitant at these levels. The Bernstein Bounce will fade soon enough. I think we are likely to have bad news out of the drilling program and am hoping for a flush on the the back of that. I may "invest" at that time.
Someone needs to make money on IOC. Might as well be me.
Raiseyou is one of the most rational IOC longs out there and people would be wise to absorb his common sense (as well as his civil behavior on these boards which is a rarity).
I pretty much agree with everything he wrote above, including the valuation.
I am out right now but am still mulling over a long position. I'd like it in the low 50s or high 40s for sure but 60s is a little "meh", for now.