I put the odds of a buyout before certification at about 10%. Imagine how idiotic Total would look paying up for gas that they found out later wasn't there (e.g. if it comes in at 5 tcf). Especially in this environment when they can buy dirt cheap 2P reserves on the stock market.
IMHO if Total is to buy IOC, they would wait until certification, find out exactly what they are dealing with at E/A, and then make an offer that is fear.
Execs at companies like Total don't get rewarded for playing roulette. Buying assets at fair prices with returns equal to or greater than their cost of capital is plenty good enough for them. Parting with $billions in precious cash with oil down 50% and their capex budgets under stress just to buy a bigger piece of something they already own and control ain't in the cards for a while.
Perhaps Mr. Market would have preferred an OSH win as Exxon could more easily justify more trains at PNG LNG than Total lighting up a brand new project in this energy environment.
When was the last time IOC went up on news? I'm not sure it's ever happened.
Good news for sure. Markets hate uncertainty, even among equal outcomes.
Focus can now be on the two biggies - E/A certification, and timeline.
"INTEROIL CORPORATION: BYKER GAYLEN FILES TO SELL 100,000 SHARES
FORM 144 FILED AT THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION ON 01/16/15 APPROXIMATE DATE OF SALE: 01/09/15
BYKER GAYLEN, SHAREHOLDER, OF 20 PEPPERS TRAIL, MONTAGUE, MI 49437, HAS FILED TO SELL 100,000 SHARES OF INTEROIL CORPORATION [IOC] THROUGH RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES. ISSUER PHONE 281-292-1800"
He smart man. IOC was still in the low 40s on Jan 9.
I'm not sure the nuances of the rules on why he would need to file a form 144. He's no longer an insider so that explains why no filings on SEDI.
I *think*, based on a cursory review of Rule 144, that he only now has to file it for restricted securities - his freely trading shares, if he still owns any, would not require filing, so he may be dumping or may have dumped more already.
"Restricted securities are securities acquired in unregistered, private sales from the issuing company or from an affiliate of the issuer. Investors typically receive restricted securities through private placement offerings, Regulation D offerings, employee stock benefit plans, as compensation for professional services, or in exchange for providing "seed money" or start-up capital to the company"
Whatever happened to that d-bag?
Yes, I put equal amounts of stock into NQ, IOC, DSNY, ANY, and XXII (aka the ShareholdersUnite ETF). I'm only down about 70% over the past year.
Yup. And when Getitwrong starts calling fellow longs "AH" you know we're in for some fireworks.
But dumps $50M (and counting?????) of IOC.
Also EWC is up 13% this year.
"Doesn't the stock get halted when down 10% for the day"
Nope, but the "circuit breaker" is triggered which means the uptick rule is in effect that day - meaning a short seller can't pound the bid.
I guess he has better places to put his $100K per month base salary.
975,000 shares unloaded last week.
Market may be wondering if the other 8.7M shares is on the way (or currently being sprayed into the market)
Not really sure. IOC's share price seems to have a negative correlation with good news so perhaps we'll see something horrible that will send the shares up.
Well, I view it as a can't lose proposition, (or "can't loose proposition" for the troglodytes).
If IOC goes up from here, I win. If IOC craters from here, I'll loose some money but watching the nasty folks over at PumpHoldersUnite get even more comeuppance will make any losses worth it.