We finally break through $5.65 today and run to $5.71.....I can GUARANTEE based on years of trading that 90% of stocks would have broken their high....NOT THIS STOCK......it is the ONLY STOCK I HAVE EVER SEEN THAT can break a high and run like 5 cents....LOL and THEN REVERSE......most stocks when they break their high RUN and RUN and RUN....not this stock. So even if we finally break $5.75 I doubt we go much farther......you would "think" $6 is "in the bag" if we break $5.75 as again 90% of stocks breaking their high at $5.75 would run to $6.00 in days.....this should "be good" if we break the old high.
For a $1.6 billion dollar company it is played with like no other !!!! Lets see "where they want us to go tomorrow"...#$%$ shoot......could go through $5.71 or trade back in the $5.40's.....all depends if we take out todays high ($5.71) or todays low ($5.56)......even I know that......and since we are right between $5.63 (surprise, surprise) who knows....MY GUT says we trade in the $5.40's based on past experience.....yes, they will want to "shake out more people" before they take us through $5.75 with this stock IT IS NEVER EASY and why even with all the GREAT NEWS (yes, this was another good earnings report) we are basically performing with the market......truly, this stock should have popped a few percent with earnings (WE BEAT by 2 cents, guidance was slightly better then the estimate of 10 cents....10-11 cent range and we even proved we are SERIOUS about margin improvement....WHAT ELSE DO THEY WANT FROM THIS COMPANY !!!).
I am sick watching TQNT......to think we traded a dollar or so above it a few months ago !!!! It has LEFT US IN THE DUST !!!! We couldn't even get some of the "tailwind today"......you would think we could have been up 2-3 percent considering their big move and QCOM earnings.....trust me, if QCOM missed we would have been down more then 5 cents !!! THEY HATE THIS STOCK !!!
However, I still feel the risk/reward is GOOD right now.....
You are the FIN#$%$ !!!! You gave it the "kiss of death".........you are a complete idiot !!!!
Lets see your next prediction #$%$ !!!
VERY POSSIBLE......however, go through all his posts. Even if the market corrects 10% he has been calling for a top FOREVER......
OH PLEASE !!!! You have been calling for a market top FOREVER !!!! Look at your posts......you know you will eventually be right and then you can BRAG !!!
Sooner or later the market has to sell off so keep calling for a TOP !!!!
I agree.....yields hit 3 percent we get a nice correction in the market this month......will be perceived as out of control ..... going from under 2 to 3 in a month WILL SCARE THE STOCK MARKET. I GUARANTEE THAT......no way the stock market absorbs another 25 basis points this month without some kind of sell off......all these BULLS are fooling themselves.....have they ever heard of discounted cash flows......earnings are not growing quickly enough for rates to shoot up 100 basis points....not yet !!!!
I am an RFMD bull still on the sidelines for now.....truly, the Samsung price action and Apple price action might be a "prelude to some short term issues" for RFMD and other component makers...plus, Blackberry didn't help.
I know last year RFMD did "put up an egg" in the second half and the stock took a hit (I bought shortly thereafter).
At $5.38 with the market near all time highs and it still being the summer I still feel it has risk at this price level and the risk/reward are close to neutral for now.....might pop to $6 or go below $5....who knows.
Do you even consider a scenario where you could be wrong.....my point there is still A LOT to play out this month. No SLAM DUNKS that we make new highs or break the recent lows but BOTH are still much in play and this could play out either way but right now small edge to the BULLS.....but the BEARS are still in the game and the next 2 weeks are going to tell the tale I feel but FRIDAY did nothing but give the BULLS A SLIGHT EDGE FOR NOW !!
Hey, I am a janitors assistant......lol.
Trust me, you wouldn't believe me if I told you what I did and where I was this weekend so better to just say I am a janitors assistant and eat from the dollar menu at Mc Donalds. So lets just assume that I work for PUD as his assistant since you are the only one on here with a good job and the only one who ever made any money in the stock market.
This has been a tough market to trade the last 2 months and truly I am not up that much as it has been a #$%$ shoot" and I have been both LONG and SHORT parts of both May and June. I was Long through April but never trusted the summer months so I have been short and long.....got caught some on Wednesday afternoon but "so be it".....I truly feel we are still in "correction mode" and will play this as a "relief rally" for July/August.....come November I go long as always and hoping for a nice correction......I play technicals and "seasonality" and truly the Summer is rarely good for stocks and I can still see better entry points is my main point.
Good luck to you.....time to empty some trash cans and clean some toilets at my yacht club (which of course I work at as I could never afford a nice big boat or membership....lol). Back to the pool and then to the clubhouse for a band tonight. My stepdaughter is the princess of our club this year and they let the Janitor's daughter represent the club....lol.
LOL.....it is NOT MY ADVICE.....it was YAMADA's and I was just making a point every technical analyst interprets data points differently. THAT WAS MY POINT......she is well respected and has been doing this for many years so I guess you feel you are better then her and Carter Worth......they are both wrong A LOT as well but I am sure you are WRONG A LOT AS WELL as am I.
My point is this could still be a "relief rally" as we had 2 HUGE 90 percent down days and I guess you just throw them out because we have rallied off of the 1,560 low.......
Guess you feel we will NEVER BREAK 1,600 the next month or two either....so the new low is 1,626.....if so, you need to go with EYE and bet the FARM....my main point is it can go lower and Friday did not give BULLS a SLAM DUNK. I AGREE very short term the Bulls are in control.....however, that could change by Monday night.....it was looking great for the BEARS on Wednesday morning (I believe the s and p hit around 1,605 or so and a break below 1,600 looked like a possibility with Europe being down so much). So I doubt a low volume Friday makes this a "slam dunk" for the Bulls for the next 2 months or longer.
Good luck to you.
Thanks.......my main point is EYE IN THE SKY doesn't understand that T/A can put the odds in your favor over a time frame but truly as they say "many charts lie at the bottom of the ocean".....
Low Volume Friday does not make this a 500% chance.....I would say 60-70 percent for a ride up to 1,650 but then NOBODY KNOWS not even EYE......and if we reverse on Monday all bets are off and Eye should know that.
Hey, I watched the trading on Friday and when we reversed and the Dow went negative I thought for sure the S and P and Nasdaq would as well but they never did......I am sure MOST T/A guys would have felt after the Dow went negative on Friday that the chances of a re-test of 1,600 was as good as a break out above 1,626......hey, I thought we were "golden" and I admit "they got me" as well as they "got me" on Wednesday when I took the position after the Dow opened down and went flat (I jumped on it.....figuring we would still be down for the day......rarely is Europe down so much and we end up in the black with no real news....but they GOT ME ON WEDNESDAY.....I also felt they would sell before the unemployment report but I was wrong....SO BE IT.....none of us can be right 100 percent of the time....I am right about 60ish to 70 percent and Wednesday and Friday were not 2 of my better calls......didn't post them as I never posted until today. However, I am wrong a lot .... which I was as good as EYE who feels he can NEVER BE WRONG..... must be nice !!!! Hey, there are a lot of smart people on Wall Street and everyone should be GOING LONG on Monday I guess since we broke the 50 day moving average...if it was ONLY THAT EASY !!!
You know I learned technical analysis from 2 very experienced people. They always told me there are "alternate patterns" and truly it is a game of probability and even the BEST get it wrong A LOT of the time. They stressed the key to being successful is knowing when you are wrong and GETTING OUT and letting your winners run when you are right.
I am sure they would both say "the jury is still out" whether we go to new lows or make new highs. Truly, we will not know for a little while in my opinion but AGAIN I like your chances as of right now to at least go to 1,650.....maybe 1,687 or a little higher. However, I feel the chances of going and breaking 1,600 are even a little better later this month or early next month. I just don't see this market BREAKING OUT YET......too much uncertainty with Tapering and the effects and I just don't feel earnings will be ALL GOOD NEWS (at best a 50/50 split...but I am betting worse then that).
My issue with you is that you feel you are 500% correct......this is a probability game and even Carter Worth, Kathleen Yamada or any of the others would tell you that with any technical pattern the chances of success are probably no more then 60-70 percent which is actually REALLY GOOD (better then Vegas by a lot).
So at worst the chances for the Bears to be wrong just by luck is probably 30-40 percent which is not great but they still have a chance even if you are right about the significance of the break-out. So many other factors effect T/A analysis.....like I said if something bad happened at MS or GS and was reported Monday morning the market would "panic" and sell off A LOT as fears of 2008/2009 would hit home......not saying it would happen just making a point that is why T/A has a high degree of error as "event risk" is always there....like I said let the 10 year go to 3 percent next week or Oil go over 110 and who knows.....look at those charts......that could happen as well and effect the S and P chart.
I heard from Kathleen Yamada and Carter Worth (Kathleen was on late Friday).
I am laughing because Kathleen Yamada is supposedly one of the TOP TECHNICAL PEOPLE and so is CARTER WORTH. NEITHER even mentioned the 50 day moving average as being A VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL. Yamada AFTER FRIDAYS ACTION said she felt we were in a trading range from 1,550 to 1,670....and this was AFTER FRIDAYS ACTION.
My only point is Carter Worth also felt we were in a trading range earlier in the week (can't remember the range but it had the old high as the top end).
If 2 of the TOP 2 analysts did not feel that "off to the races" was a high probability I just laugh at EYE IN THE SKY who feels their is NO CHANCE we don't test the old lows and are "off to the races". Again, we might be "off to the races" but I don't think that FRIDAY GUARANTEED IT !!! I believe the SMART TRADERS might have "set up the retail investors" ..... no different then they did on Wednesday when the market should have been down in my opinion but they rallied it !!!! They take this market where the money can be made....right now I feel they can make more money with a nice correction in July/August as they can put a hell of a scare in people if some companies miss earnings and 2nd quarter GDP comes in at 1 percent or so.....that will be an EASIER SELL then trying to talk to the market up to 1,750 or higher in my opinion....but who knows !!!!
Regardless, I have been through many July's and August periods so my feeling is there is a nice chance of a sell-off more then a blow-off top....China is weak and I can see some "caution in guidance" and in my opinion that is all it will take with the 10 year rate up so much and GDP being weak.
I feel there is more complacency now then at 1,687 and now is the time for the bulls to be very careful with their profits of about 15 percent but let the GREED GET THEM....it normally always does in the end..hey, we all forget when Apple was 705 many felt it was going to 1,000
I have to agree with EYE about one thing.....the odds have "slightly tilted in his favor" and I do feel that for the very short term.
The problem I have is there is ALSO A LOT OF BAD NEWS that could blow up and he feels it is a "totally done deal". Honestly, if I wasn't in the position I would "wait and see" but now I am rolling the dice still feeling the odds over the next 2 weeks are slightly to the down side from 1,631 and definitely to the down side from 1,650 (as the market might open up 10 points or better on Monday).
My problem with EYE is he should use the term "odds are now in the favor of the Longs for early next week" and I agree with that. However, he is acting like this is a 80 percent bet or better and truly that is not the case and if he is SO SMART he should have the experience that Technical indicators do not work ALL THE TIME (however, I do follow them and they do work 60ish percent or a little better in my opinion but it is not GAME, SET, MATCH yet for this CORRECTION and he should know that). In my opinion, the S and P has to break the old high by a few percentage points and then I would feel 1,500-1,550 is now a LONG SHOT and the next correction might stop at around 1,625 from a higher level but we are NOT THERE YET.....not with earnings season just starting and he should know better.
Hey, a stock like Net Flix which technically is in a nice uptrend if they miss could drop right through support as could IBM......so if they can so can the S and P break the 50 day moving average....personally, I am really laughing that now the 50 day is like the 200 day used to be.....too funny !!!! 50 day used to mean NOTHING...honest....or very little....next thing you know the 10 and 20 day will be GOSPEL !!!
Does everyone truly believe that will cause stocks to rise. Lets not say "it can't happen" as it is possible. It was only last week after the 10 year re-traced from 2.66 to under 2.50 that EVERYONE felt that was the SHORT TERM TOP (well, they were wrong). Also, how about the GOLD REVERSAL DAY when it hit below 1,200 only to reverse and quite a few called a SHORT TERM BOTTOM in gold (including good old Dennis Gartman).
SO PLEASE lets not act like the 50 Day moving average CAN NOT BE BROKEN THROUGH next week. Assume we get some bad earnings and guidance and the 10 year keeps going up......I guess the stock market "shrugs it off" and goes past 1,700 because "technically it should". This is EXACTLY what makes the market more then "just charts"....again, if it was that EASY all of us would be RICH beyond our dreams. Basically, our downside would be about 5-6 S and P points and the upside is UNLIMITED.
Again, I am not saying that we can't rally to 1,700 or higher.....I am just saying it is not a "slam dunk" and for the open Monday I do wish I was LONG but truly I would just sell on a GAP UP and make some money as I feel we open higher on Monday but UNFORTUNATELY I BELIEVE for BEARISH BETS we need to OPEN HIGHER and then see what the "big boys do".....if they sell into it I still feel lower lows are possible is my point and I don't believe with earnings coming they are going to risk running this market up much more until they get a better feel for earnings.....trust me, I doubt they want to totally "gamble" and buying the market at these high levels until they get earnings clarity is a GAMBLE and they are smarter then that in my opinion but we will see come late Monday !!!! It would just not surprise me if we reverse on Monday and watch then "how everyone changes their tune"......it will be FUNNY TO READ. All of a sudden EYE IN THE SKY will be like "the 50 day moving average is not the only thing that matters if we break it to the downside on Tuesday.
I believe it has "some significance" but to act like it is GAME, SET, MATCH is foolish on your part. Lets face it "none of us are 500% sure" not even you. If you were you would play a weekly option and mortgage EVERYTHING to do it and by Friday either make a ton or lose a ton.....I am sure not even you are THAT SURE.
I would say the odds of an up week next week are about 60/40 in favor of the Bulls because of the close on Friday (breaking the 50 day moving average will most likely lead to a nice open on Monday.....how we close is the key.....the BIG BOYS are back and truly who knows how they will take "the news" (higher oil prices, big move in the 10 year. etc). You could get some bad news overseas on Sunday night and who knows.....Alcoa could tell a "horror story" so "nothing is in the bag". Lets just for kicks say MS or GS announces some trading losses (not saying it will happen) or a big Tech company pre-announces.....CAN YOU TRULY TELL me the 50 day moving average will hold.....then all of a sudden you start to get "hey, false break-out....headed to test 1,600".....trust me WALL STREET is full of crooks and there is no guarantee this isn't a "head fake"......if I have learned one thing it is when things look like a GUARANTEE it NORMALLY ISN'T and you should know that. Damn, they were calling for 500 Apple a few weeks ago when we went through 450......next thing I know we are at 388 !!!! So please the 50 day moving average WAS IMPORTANT but no more important then if we open up 100 points on Monday and somehow reverse to close down around the 50 day moving average....then all it would take is some bad overseas news or ALCOA reporting bad earnings and BAM we are right back at 1,610 or so wondering if 1,600 will hold. PERSONALLY, I don't believe we SCREAM TO THE UPSIDE (over 1,700) or break to the downside (below 1,550) and I do believe we are smack in the middle of the trading range with an up pop on Monday to be sold off in short order.
You may be right.....however, I believe Earnings overall will be the catalyst. Also, the GDP report for the 2nd quarter will be "the icing".
I believe we are real close to BAD NEWS being PERCEIVED REALLY BAD.
You may say why is that......my feeling is that the 10 year is now high enough that you will have this scenario and will be the ONE THAT NOBODY IS THINKING ABOUT:
1. Bad news and people will start to worry "what if the FED STILL TAPERS in September".....don't let ANYONE FOOL YOU that FEAR WOULD TANK THE MARKETS HARD......so the more I see the 10 year spike and oil spike and the market moves higher the more confident I feel that the sell-off will be vicious. IN MY OPINION the market should have sold off on FRIDAY as HIGHER OIL PRICES and HIGHER YIELDS are never good combined with low projected GDP....
Thats right everyone is sold "the economy will get better in the second half because the fed believes it will"......I SAY "that is now factored in so the risks are HUGE if the economic data and earnings are soft".....so that is my PREMISE that the 1,750 spike is less likely short term (month or two) then the 1,550 spike !!!
Calling it a day.....good luck and thanks to everyone for their opinion......bottomline......I feel we all know something in the next couple of weeks and that will set the tone for August !!!
That response made my day. You are forgetting one big difference the market had SOLD OFF DRASTICALLY !!!
From 1,560 the market sold off like 6 percent so a V SHAPE from the low of 2 weeks ago CAN HAPPEN but most likely I don't see it since I feel so much GOOD NEWS is factored in and lately ALL THE BAD NEWS is GOOD NEWS....that can change.
China is a big HEADWIND.....Europe is recovering but still very weak and we are starting to pull out the "juice" that fueled some of this rally. GDP is not exploding......and unemployment is recovering but slowly. EVERYONE FORGETS SOME OF THIS GOOD NEWS (if not all of it) has been factored in....we are up close to 15% on the year......everyone acts like we are down on the year.
All I am saying is "a pull back is still possible" over the next 1-3 months.....the chances are more that we hit 1,550 then 1,750 in July/August is my MAIN POINT but who knows......I am saying CHANCES....unfortunately, we could hit 2,000 or 1,200 as well.....who really knows.....I just play the odds (have always done well) and I feel as of the open on Monday that the CHANCES for July from the open on Monday are more to the Downside then Upside for July and August.....I can see Tech stocks finally correcting some (look at some of the runs with the exception of Apple)......rarely have I seen the QQQ up 8 straight days without a nice correction....you know what they say "but the rumor sell the news" and I believe the earnings will MOST LIKELY BE SOLD in the tech names.
I wouldn't own IBM at 195 based just on what Accenture and Oracle reported....but again who knows but I can see BIG BLUE leading the techs down next week and Apple might "lay an egg" as well based on what Samsung reported (they had the galaxy S4 and couldnt have a good quarter). Lately everyone is back positive on Apple.....some smart money took profits on Friday as they read the Samsung news I suspect and didn't want to take the risk
You are right......however, risk/reward of a 100 point move upward or downward for July/August I feel after the 70 points we have moved in 2 weeks (we were at 1,560 not long ago) PROBABLY puts the odds in the favor of the BEARS especially with the SENTIMENT SO BULLISH EVERYWHERE it seems.
If the 10 year dropped from 2.50 to 2.25 I could see the BULLISH CASE but with GS coming out and saying Tapering starts September and the 10 year maybe on a "break out" to 3 percent I just feel that any bad earnings and a bad 2nd quarter GDP would be a GREAT CATALYST for some market fear and another VIX SPIKE.
Again, the Vix is back below 15 in NO TIME !!! Again, risk/reward I feel is a 20 point VIx over the next month or so rather then a 12 point Vix......everyone is TALKING VOLATILITY but everyone is BULLISH......rarely does extreme volatility correspond to BULLISH ACTION....so
Wall Street better change their tune.....they need to say they EXPECT NO VOLATILITY and higher prices......I doubt we get a higher Vix and higher prices (it can happen but VERY RARE).
Good luck to everyone......if I was LONG (wish I was right now) I would sell on Monday if we popped.....I could have licked my wounds on Friday (took a small loss) but truly at 1,630ish I feel we are at worst in the middle of a trading range.....I feel 1,600 break is still going to happen this month and how it handles "that test" will determine the next move.....
Only thing concerning me is that we did test 1,624-1,626 MANY TIMES before we broke through.. if that was 1,687 to be honest I would have to CUT MY LOSSES.....testing 1,687 that many times and breaking through would be a much higher probability of a TRUE TREND CHANGE (short term).....I don't feel we got that on Friday but who knows !!!
Just my 2 cents......however, Kathleen Yamada (trust me she is wrong as well many times) still felt Friday night that we are in a trading range and she MIGHT BE RIGHT who knows !!! But that is what I felt before she spoke
Again, who knows.....truly, I always say to myself "would I buy or sell if I didn't have a nice position". THE ONLY MISTAKE I MADE was the following:
They got me good on Wednesday !!! I figured when the Dow re-traced the Loss on early Wednesday it would reverse back and close down big on the day (hey, Europe was down big). So I bought when the Dow was about flat on Wednesday figuring the risk/reward for Wednesday was really good !!! WRONG !!! We were the only market up that day......wasn't like EUROPE DIDN'T GET KILLED so for us to be up really trapped probably a lot of shorts....me included. I didn't want to hold
for Fridays report to be honest. However, they GOT ME AGAIN yesterday......when the Dow went negative truly I felt we were "golden" I really did......then they TRAPPED ALL OF US with a VICIOUS LOW VOLUME RALLY from about flat to up 80 points in minutes.....OUCH !!!!
They did it to us again late Friday when it looked like we might actually give it all back only to reverse to NEW HIGHS !!!! All of this VICIOUS ACTION with a falling VIX !!!!
So here we sit......truly, a little "beat up" and "a lot confused" after the action on both Wednesday and Friday so that is why I feel MORE PAIN for Monday. HOWEVER, I want to GAP UP.....truly I believe that is the BEARS BEST SHOT.....if we GAP DOWN and reverse that would be SHORT TERM REALLY BAD !!! We need a GAP UP and reversal and Alcoa to bomb and set the stage for Tuesday (would love a nice sell-off Monday night)......then short term the BEARS regain control....YES, it can happen that quickly......come on on Wednesday morning it looked like the BEARS might take this below 1,600 so unless the fight is over (which I doubt) we should close the weak weaker then what we started it.
Also the QQQ's have been up for 8 straight days that is why I feel the week after this week they will correct led by IBM, Apple and Intel and their guidance...but who knows !!! If not, I guess I get out the LUBE !!!
I never post I just read. However, I am surprised that a 15 minute (yes, that was all it was) low volume rally has made GOING LONG SPY a SLAM DUNK. Honestly, it was "touch and go" with 15 minutes to go so I doubt all the shorts or longs really even re-positioned to be honest. Plus, the low volume assures that was not the case.
So who knows. I just know the "economic data is mixed" which means UNCERTAINTY in my mind. So now with the "talking heads" saying the TAPERING WILL END and some ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY I can see the CROOKS all of a sudden doing this :
1. Spinning the high 10 year all of a sudden in a bad light !!! Rather then the great rotation from bonds to stock spin they have been giving it !!!
2. Starting to highlight the problems in Europe (Portugal and Greece) and China....which their are still major potential issues their
3. Highlight the price of OIL that can not possibly be a TAILWIND but is ignored totally.....what happens if it cracks 110 (yes, it can happen) ..that can all of a sudden become an "issue" we are all forgetting that !!!
4. Earnings and more importantly guidance......truly, I have not fogotten the bad report by ACCENTURE (a really good company that in my opinion mirrors IBM)...that report sent IBM to 185 (has fully recovered ... LOL) and Accenture down 10 percent !!! They highlighted WEAKNESS ALL OVER THE PLACE !!! How about ORACLES REPORT (sent that stock down 10 percent !!!). Guess they are not good PROXYS but if they are TECH EARNINGS COULD BE HIT.
Also, SAMSUNG !!!! Thats right they mean nothing....how about the component companies in the USA that supply to SAMSUNG !!! Thats right NO RISK THERE.
Bottomline...there are RISKS FOR EARNINGS SEASON AND WE ARE UP close to 15 percent in 6 months (assuming we GAP UP hard on Monday)... 30 percent annualized !!! So, I guess none of the good news is priced in !!!
Too funny......everyone is SURE we are going to NEW HIGHS next week (we might but no slam dunk