Think of that. Similarly valuable virtualization technology---think of Docker as anything coding from here forward and Sphere for EVERYTHING that has gone before---and Sphere's market cap is one tenth of Docker.
There are discrepancies like this in the market from time to time, but they don't last. The truth is finally emerging through all the noise the shorts have made and the gap will close. It's about time, and I for one am enjoying it fully.
And we also know that Sphere is 10% the market cap of Docker with a technology that is equally valuable. The gap will continue to close, and that is not noise.
For those of you who understand this space, and also understand the difference between Sphere and Docker, it's instructive to compare their market caps. Docker is currently valued at around $2B and Sphere at less than $200M. More than a ten fold difference.
Which is has more upside for an investor? You tell me.
Conclusion at end of article: What is clear, though, as said at the beginning of this article, is that the interactions between these five companies - three of the biggest empires (Google, Microsoft and VMware) and two new ultimate weapons (Docker and Sphere 3D) in the world of cloud computing - will have a very profound impact on the entire industry this year. The troops are all converged to the battle field, and the moment of final collision is probably imminent and unavoidable on the short horizon. Don't take your eyes off the battles over the next several months, because the moves of these participants may have great impacts on the values of the cloud computing companies in your portfolio.
Best summary I've personally read was yesterday's Seeking Alpha article posted on the iHub board ANY(Sphere's NASD symbol) jn post 18962.
It covers both Docker and Sphere, the differences between them, and why each has a huge market to capture.
If you are either long or short, I'd take a look. This one is extremely well done.
To be honest, I really don't pay a lot of attention to what is obvious propaganda. Talking about it at all only plays into the hands of the shorts as they just want to put the longs on the defensive and dominate the message board. Stay positive, ignore them, and focus on the real story,
I'd like to see the shorts try to undo the damage from this one. Glassware doesn't exist…isn't being sold…has had no independent verification…etc etc. Many thanks Google for blowing the lies apart.
It's a $160M run rate in Q4, not $160M in revenue. Big difference. But it still means that they are projecting huge growth in the sales of Glassware, because no one thinks that Overland is going to double their sales this year!
No, a $160M run rate only means that the fourth quarter will be $40M, which annualized means $160M. It doesn't mean that there will be $160M in revenue this year.
Gosh, TDG, settle down. The facts are in front of you. Look at them. Digest them, and put your prejudices away for a sec. There is a publicly announced growth story in front of you that must have been vetted eight ways from Sunday or the company never would have put it out. The market understood it, why can't you?
Never mind, I have read your posts in the past and you are just another axe grinder. The story is what it is, and if you choose to ignore it that's your affair.
If the company is projecting a $160M run rate by Q4, then that means Q4 will be ~$40M. Compare that to ~$20M for OVRL in Q3 last year and $1.4M for Sphere giving you combined revenues of ~$21.5M. Looks like 50% growth year over year to me. The valuation is still absurd as a rapidly growing company is selling for 1X revenues. Won't last forever, and can't wait until the conference call to hear more.
Well, it appears that our company that is valued at $100M is now projected to grow at least 50% this year(most conservative way to interpret the press release) and would be selling for 0.6 revenues at the current price. So you might say this just became an earnings story instead of just a story.
This quarter's call will obviously give us further details, but the overall momentum is exactly the opposite of what has been drilled over and over on this board. Whatever the price does in the short term just became a lot less relevant, because there is only one way companies that are growing revenues at 50% go, and that is UP.
Marsh, OVRL's revenues are ~$20M to $23M a quarter. So there is no way OVRL's revenues are in the figures for Sphere. The only way to read the release is that Glassware is now running at $36M a year and projected to run at $160M yearly by the end of 2015. I agree it's pretty spectacular, and unexpected, but it is what it is.
No, the revenues are from Sphere, not OVRL. That's pretty clear in the release. What is not yet clear is what OVRL's revenues will be, and anything less than $20M+ would be a disappointment. But Glassware appears to have real traction now, and that's what will drive revenues through both the Sphere and OVRL divisions.
Revenues from Sphere up from 1M in Q1 2014 to 9M in Q4. Projected revenues of $40M in Q4 2015. This is without any apparent contribution from Overland which is ahead of schedule on cost cutting and reportedly seeing increased demand. So in case anyone…no names mentioned here…are still looking for the money, reread the release. It's unbelievably good.
That's where we do agree. There need to be more concrete announcements for sure. But the Texas school system announced recently is a good follow on to the Virginia one, and there I suspect many many more to follow. Dell is pushing hard in this space.
Simon Bramfitt works for Virtualization Practice, and independent journal that reviews new technologies. Hardly a Sphere 3d shill.
I highly doubt that the author of HTFBS would invent a story about a fictitious FINRA investigation. He would be opening himself up to liability from all of his newsletter subscribers.
And if this is all BS, then why did Dell sponsor the latest educational conference in Texas which features Glassware as the solution to virtualizing Windows apps on Chromebooks? And it is Glassware installed on their servers that achieves this?
The way I see it the educational vertical with Dell is just getting rolling(Virginia and Texas), and the health care vertical, announced last year, is chugging along too. Add to that announced work in progress with ATOS, Ericcson, etc. and it appears the train is leaving the station. It's taken a while, and may take a while longer, but your thesis that 'no one is buying it' is simply untrue. It's a cool, easy to use technology, and the ramp up is starting.
Well there has been a rumor circulating for months that the stock is being manipulated. I personally think there is credence to it because Scottrade and a couple other groups stopped trading the stock online because of 'suspicious' activity. There is a large, as yet unaccounted for short position from the Canadian exchange(TSX) and apparently also an ongoing FINRA investigation.
So we have to take the pain until all this winds its way through the system. My personal take is that Pinetree, a large holder with major liquidity issues, may be a large seller, and fold into that a large short position that has yet to unwind until they get the price to where they want it.
But if you follow the business it's a different story. Sphere has some small wins already, but is working with some very large players: Dell, ATOS, Ericsson, etc. The revenue for Q4 will probably reflect some uptick in the all important sales of Glassware, but the real fireworks should start in Q1 2015 as the above partnerships begin to bear fruit. The technology has been vetted up and down by multiple independent analysts and there is no doubt in my mind of its validity.
So what to do?
I'm doing nothing. Just trying not to worry about it too much until the situation resolves which I am confident it will. Sphere needs any of the following: a big public contract with a name brand player; a blowout quarter; or institutional coverage. I think over the course of this year it's reasonable to expect two or three of the above, and when that happens the short issue will morph from a liability to an asset. As someone who has been through previous situations like this, because of my own diligence I feel it's just a matter of time until all that is red becomes green.