It could easily be large funds trading shares between themselves, or an institution trading shares between funds, whatever. I'm certainly not the most sophisticated person in these matters but in addition to that I would also expect many of the shorts to be systematically unwinding their positions. Remember that 18% of the float is listed as shorted and with the recent run of good news (x3) they realize the writing is on the wall. I doubt they want to be around when fund managers reestablish their positions for the new year, as MACK is likely to be looked on a lot more favorably in 2014 than it has been in 2013.
The results for the Phase I trial are just remarkable.
No cardiac toxicity issues identified at all, and not only did the compound work in heavily pretreated patients but it worked great. A PFS(progression free survival) of 5.6months is outstanding in this population, as is a 37% clinical benefit rate. Remember that these women have cancer which is progressing despite multiple rounds of chemotherapy. You couldn't pick a harder group to treat.
So MACK scores yet another win, the third in as many months. I would guess we will hear news of a Phase II beginning early 2014, and with results like these it will be interesting to see what strategic approach they take. Doxorubicin is well known to the FDA and 302 is just a new 'delivery vehicle', so perhaps something can be organized to expedite the path to approval. Given the lack of safety issues and the desperate need for new drugs in resistant populations, we can be guardedly optimistic in this regard.
That's the right idea.
What is so funny to those of us who understand the company is how few seem to really 'get it'. I will post more on this phenomenon tomorrow but we should all remember to look back at the price during this period knowing what we know now. 121 is more or less confirmed, 398 looks like a slam dunk, we all expect good data on 302 tomorrow, and yet the stock is selling for the 'standard' biotech company price of cash + 'a bit more'.
It's funny to me and to my pals who are admittedly still a minority right now but who read articles written in the press---Forbes Online today and Motley Fool last week---about 'bad data' coming out of MACK. In my opinion these folks are so obviously clueless you can't believe someone is actually paying their salary. MACK has shown that ONE THIRD of patients with breast cancer respond to MM121 and that MACK can identify them via their biomarkers. Hello? This is NEW and GAME CHANGING. Herceptin, which sells billions per year, affects ONE QUARTER of breast cancer patients. Is the fog clearing?
It will all be obvious someday but being an early MACK adopter is challenging. It's clear that there has been and will continue to be a lag of understanding of this story until the trial results are out. Then it's high-five-knuckle-bump time with a loud KA-ching as a finale.
What you need to do is a standard risk / reward analysis.
Biotech provides inordinate rewards with very significant risk. You can lose plenty of dough here. But in MACK's case if 398 gets approved it's hard to see the stock below 10 bucks. And if 121 has a successful Phase III it's hard to see the price below 20 bucks. If these trials fail then the stock will be back in single digits.
I am optimistic that both of these drugs will make it to the market, so yes I think MACK is a good bet. But as we have just seen the shorts can arrive out of nowhere and kick the #$%$ out of your stock. If you are likely to be scared off by wild price swings you would be well advised to go elsewhere. If you can afford the risk and have the stomach for the swings, then welcome aboard. I personally think this is the biotech of the future.
No, it is being released tomorrow. But remember it's only Phase I. We shouldn't get our knickers in too much of a knot over it.
I'm hoping for decent safety and some indication of efficacy. Anything beyond that is very bullish.
The rise in the price has nothing at all to do with the Phase I 302 trial. It's just a correction from the downward pressure that has been exerted by what appears to have been a professionally organized attack on the stock.
The data from the trial doesn't even get announced until tomorrow.
There are all sort of different models, and yes a 6 month benefit is indeed possible.
Don't get too tied to any number, the key is to be sure that the trial wins. In all but the most pessimistic scenarios, this one looks really really good.
Top line data is to be reported Q2 of 2014.
It's been delayed twice, so it appears that folks are living longer than anticipated. The benchmarks are 6 weeks of benefit in the MM398 alone arm and 3 months of benefit in the 398 with 5 Fluorouracil arm.
You have a point, but the truth is I enjoy this stuff. It's exciting, and on some level I allow myself to think that I am doing something worthwhile with my time and money.
Eeeks. Perish the thought!
I'm a fan of Peter Lynch who always advised buying what you know. I understand medicine, and have been investing in biotech for a long long time. It's a WILD ride, really unsuitable for many, but it has allowed me to live pretty freely.
I'm not traditionally much of a poster, so don't mistake my current activity for the 'norm'. The reason I stepped in here is because I didn't feel the company was doing much of a job explaining itself in terms that average investors could understand. I'll back off at some point, probably after events make everything I've been saying obvious to all.
Well, if you're in the biotech game, you should be willing to wait a while. Trial results and deals drive prices, and they can take a bit of time. In this case, there appears to be a nice runway from here to next summer with lots of potentially positive news.
But the biggest money comes over time. Look at Regeneron, Celgene, etc. It takes years to build a big company but the tax free gains you make during that time are unbeatable.
Doing nothing is hard. That's the real issue. Buying and holding is just too much nothing for many people. Too bad, as it really frees you from being tied too much to your portfolio and leaves time for lots of other things!
Your efforts at defense are admirable, but remember that the purpose of the shorts is to divert attention on a message board and distract folks from the real story. Every time you respond to them, and I have been occasionally guilty of this myself, you are actually helping their cause.
It would be prudent, but it is rarely done.
A pal of mine likes to say: 'Big Pharma isn't stupid, it's chicken'. By that he means that large companies like Sanofi prefer to pay up, sometimes waaay up, for biotech's that have been completely derisked. If history is any guide I'd predict that Sanofi will make a play for MACK, but not until MM121 has had a successful Phase III or after it is on the market and sales are climbing. It's easy to pay a big note down with parabolically growing sales.
I've gotten a few calls lately from friends who hold the stock wondering about the fall in the price.
I tell them all the same thing: the movement has nothing to do with underlying events at the company.
From a fundamental viewpoint the stock appears grossly undervalued now that the MM121 program has been validated in two successful trials. This program alone puts the company in the lead worldwide for a multibillion dollar prize. And then follow that with the Pancreatic Cancer Phase III trial that unless there is some wild left field event looks headed for an easy win in Q2 next year, plus four other drugs in clinical testing, and yet you have a company that is valued comparably to other biotech's with a single drug program.
The price currently seems completely disconnected from reality. My personal take is that this is nothing but a terrific buying opportunity, and as distasteful as it is to see the lowlifes who are associated with obvious price manipulation, we long termers owe debt of gratitude to them on some level. It's a Christmas present of sorts, and my prediction is that as soon as they've unwound their positions they'll be gone and we can get back to the somewhat higher calling of helping patients with cancer….and making serious money.
Your time frame is inadequate for investments of this type. Give this company another six months---I know that is eons in todays investment mentality---and see where you are. Biotech stocks are exceedingly volatile and generally do worse at the end of a year than at the beginning. Hang on to at least some of your shares until next June(at LEAST!) and check back in with us.
If you listen to the hyenas you'll miss the message, but that of course is their purpose.
MACK made an early announcement about the MM302 trial which they didn't have to do and is as clear a signal as they can send that the data will be at the least encouraging.
So from an event driven perspective we have the following in the recent and near term:
1. Positive data on 121 in two trials: breast and ovarian
2. Delay in the Phase III announcement which increases the likelihood of success
3. A partnership to manufacture and revenue share with another liposomal product.
4. Upcoming 302 data this weekend.
Yes, the stock is going down, but it is going down because it is being forced down by those who are trying to unwind their short positions. The arrival of the hyena-basher is as clear an indication of that as you will find. From both a fundamental and event driven view this stock is still wildly undervalued, but as always these things don't last. The shorts are not stupid, just a bit late to the party, and will be gone soon. Do not let them worry you no matter what they say in the meantime.
Gosh, I'd better watch all this VERY CLOSELY. EVERYTHING depends on what happens in the NEXT 48 HOURS!!!!!
You all are a trip. I've held this stock for years and will hold for years more. Enjoy the false stress you create. It isn't making you any younger.