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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

boogly_oogly 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 1:43 PM Member since: Oct 2, 2012
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  • boogly_oogly boogly_oogly Jul 27, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    This is just silly.
    In inflation-adjusted pricing, oil has usually been below $30/bbl, only rising above that level in around 2004 (there was an oil shock bubble earlier, in '79-'86).
    It's possible that it won't drop to that level in the near future, but it's unrealistic to think that at some point it won't be there again. As more solar power comes online at cheaper prices, the price of oil will just have to come down.

    Of course, that's meaningless in the context of USO which loses money as it rolls over its futures contracts - note how, while oil is 10% higher per barrel than it was earlier this year, USO is just about back to its lows. Hence you shouldn't be buying USO for a long-term play.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • boogly_oogly boogly_oogly Jun 23, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    From July 2011 to July 2013, NYCB did essentially nothing (exclusive of dividends), while the financial sector as measured by VFH rose 50%. In the very short term, NYCB has risen noticeably, and faster than the financial sector overally, but this is largely due IMHO to the anticipation of a steepening of the interest rate curves which affect regional banks more than other financial institutions.

    So, while there are some headwinds (e.g., will fed action be delayed until 2016? will the economy slow and reduce new commercial real estate activity?), I don't see this stock as hugely overbought.

    To see an example of a hugely overbought stock, look at a chart of AMBA going into last week!

    Sentiment: Hold

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