moves hit and push commodities higher -- it is inevitable. But shareholders just have to hope that the big money doesn't rip off shareholders before this happen and wipe them out. Huge potential but also huge unknowns. I don't trust any of them. I have not had many losers but this has been a loser so far. Boolean
as usual my big picture macro view wins out and watch as INFRASTRUCTURE comes into the limelight - BAM the commodities and its players are going to surge.......and oil will move higher. The USA will lead the world but China, India and frontier economies are going to run and the old stalwarts like Germany will also ride along. PSYCHOLOGY. Now something could come in and mess it up so be wary and be alert. LOW OIL IS BAD MEDICINE and even if it drops today or tomorrow or whatever it will not collapse as that would destroy the economic revival. Got it. Boolean
and I know I have been right.......early as usual but RIGHT ON. 2015 will begin a massive infrastructure rebuild and it will drive oil/gas/commodities and stocks in general higher and it will allow interest rates to rise slowly under the veil of this rebuild.....not a lot just slowly and methodically. Stay tuned -- highlight this call and be sure to BE THERE. See you this weekend. Till then....... Boolean
now along with the entire market - looks like the bottom finally clinked as many of my holdings showed gains today even with the market drop and that is typically........I say typically a perfect call on reversal time as I have a very broad portfolio
maybe tomorrow or no later than Friday -- my market performance pattern today says that the major selling is over. We shall see but that is what........I see so far - do want to check performance of high yield bonds though but they should have been positive with the oil market performance today. Boolean
will stick in the log soon and will be time to buy - look at earthstone/energy that recently had two analyst buy recommendations with a target of 35 - now trades at 15 and change. Strong management and a merger in the works. The strong companies will survive and thrive. DO OWN DD as always but there are values out there.
look at earthstone energy at 15 and change with two strong buy ratings out recently by brokerages with targets of mid 30's -- there is a lot of value out there and that is one of them. 2015 will be a much better economy so oil will rise strongly.
in 2015 so this fall is bringing in a lot of value. Look at a wide range of strong players and that is what you see. I own a lot of oil but look at earthstone energy that has recently received two strong buys with price targets in the mid 30's and now it sits at 15 and change. Yes I own shares.
Earthstone's CEO Ray Singleton was very conservative in all of his actions and made sure he did not try to play the "all in" strategy and elevate risk - earthstone will be fine and more than fine and now that they are paired with Frank the company and stock will do extremely well as this all shakes out. USEG on the other hand has sub-par managers and Ms Molly so that is a lot of weight on their back. I see there are concerns in Libya this morning and who knows what else can come in to alter the price of oil. As I noted oil was due for a rebound today or this week as it was very oversold but whether it will be short or longer term (or even hold today) is the question in terms of the rebound's holding power. ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL TRUMP ALL CONCERNS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IS COMING AS I NOTED IN EARLIER POSTS. BE THERE. Boolean
carnage in the oil sector as it will derail the recovery and drive it right into the wall - GOLD would go to 4k an ounce or more as a recovery from it would be impossible. So - maybe this lasts to the end of the year and maybe not but we are closer to the bottom than the top for sure as the economic risk is enormous if this continues. Look at the fears building up right now - even in Canada. No prices won't soar back but rather moderate and rise back to +60's to start - mid 60's and then into the 70's. I have been building funds to buy the bottom - 2015 will be solid. Boolean
and don't count out some other news that will turn this oil collapse into stability - right now it is all negative and people think they have it all figured out but do they? Rising economic news from those like India and other can spin the psychology FAST. I don't know it it will but that is not out of the question especially with stochastics and RSI so oversold. It may be a dead cat bounce but I will bet this oversold condition will meet some resistance this week. I do have a stop though on my leveraged S&P in case havoc reigns. Boolean
of news around the globe and the tone is still NEGATIVE FOR OIL PRICES. It is rampant. Feels are strong that the Saudi's are doing this not only to hit shale producers but also Russia and Iraq and others they do not like. The outlook for now therefore is for lower oil prices BUT those like India who import a lot of oil will boost their economic outlook along with China as I noted and those are two key drivers of world-wide economic growth SO......that will be good for 2015 growth rates. The USA is already improving so lower fuel prices will only help........to a point. There will be pain for some no doubt. Do we drop to the 35 dollar oil level? Who knows but the strong players will be able to pick up property more cheaply and prepare themselves for the inevitable RISE IN OIL along with the ECONOMIC RISE.
**I would be very interested in hearing from others on what their thoughts and insights tell them at this juncture. And FACTS you have would be helpful in this discussion. The words AWASH IN OIL is like a bumper sticker for downward oil prices BUT I know economic growth will cure that especially with the cut-backs in drilling already being reported. The strong will get stronger and the weakest will die and others will be swallowed up by those stronger players. The end of this tunnel will be strong growth.
TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE FOLKS. Thanks in advance. Boolean
regression from the mean and a temporary bit of chaos - that is a lot different than a long term trend. The economic gain coming in 2015 will surprise on the upside - look at the growth increases being noted for India, the USA and even Vietnam - we will see China growth increase finally and they will have more stimulus coming in early 2015......beaten down oils will be solid winners and the noise about over supply will become noise about reduced supply.........psychology will change and UP GOES OIL/GAS. So hang tough and follow the beaten down companies with strength like earthstone energy and chevron and noble and so many more (I own shares in the first two but not noble yet.......do have transocean now. Be greedy when others are fearful.........blood in the streets means value. Boolean
oh yeah stochastics and RSI are oversold in oil but that can last longer under such a barrage but it does mean at least a short term rally may be on the horizon.......
sharply if this oil drop continues for long - strong players with outstanding managements like earthstone will come out even bigger winner on the next run --- as we said - tankers are moving into China in a big way now building up their reserves. All the countries with economies strengthening will really come into force in 2015. Technology could be the next group to be hit as they have been moving sharply higher so my stops will all be in place by Monday to protect those gains. Boolean
BUT maybe not -- this price slide is coming as the US is recovering and we see India another growth engine getting UPGRADES on its growth and China which as been slowing has now reached the point where stimulus is being added to drive them higher - Japan flip-flops in and out of growth but smaller economies like Vietnam and others are showing RISING growth rates for 2015. SO.....I hold firm to 2015 being the time when world-wide economic growth accelerates and that will cure all that ails oil/gas right now. And look at the Michigan consumer index and how bullish that was - do you really think that was all about lower gas prices at the pump........that is foolish. Look at the market - DOWN and many stocks have pulled back over the past year with small caps beaten back while the S&P races higher. I say oil prices will begin to rise by March 2015 and we will see 90-100 dollar oil later in the year as growth numbers rise and demand rises while output was diminished by this hammering oil slide. All the pundits are out now (where were they before) saying I told you so and oil is going to the 30's...........52-55 maybe in this drop but OIL DROP IS A NEGATIVE OVERALL FOR THE ECONOMY THIS TIME not a positive. And look at deflationary issues this causes along with job growth suppression. Now the drop has been quick, severe and painful but like a mutual fund that drop you keep buying IF you like what you hold and if you don't like what you hold then why hold it. Yes dollar cost averaging is more dangerous with a single stock so you must know the companies well that you do it with. Good luck - the drop shows no indication of relenting but that can change quickly -just don't look for the Saudi's to do it as they are nailed in on this to hurt those oil sectors they see as harming their overall leadership position. But make no mistake about it - this oil drop is not good for the US economy if it continues from here and Mr. Market is telling you that. Boolean
59.10 NYMEX -- key will be China stimulus announcement - if they delay the announcement thru the new year then we could drop to 46.50. India also needs to energize their economy. INFRASTRUCTURE REBUILD should happen across the major economies but they are holding on to that level and not pulling it yet - THEY KNOW THEY NEED TO. You can tell oil stocks are finding their oversold level and that we are closer to the bottom than the top in a solid manner. So stocks like we have here and Halliburton and schlumberger and so many more - even smaller ones like earthstone/energy will soar on this news. What we don't know is when does that news hit. The last two years of presidential cycle means that is when they kick in growth to win the white house again.
if it continues and the governments know that - if the economy tanks (the risks are rising if this drop continues) then it is all over and we will go into a severe depression with massive deflation and destruction. I say we are very close to the end and perhaps tomorrow when China comes out with their response we will see their stimulus as a positive and change the psychology. I own a lot of oil stocks and //earthstone/energy// is one to look at right. Certainly the oil etf is another. Boolean