in 2015 so this fall is bringing in a lot of value. Look at a wide range of strong players and that is what you see. I own a lot of oil but look at earthstone energy that has recently received two strong buys with price targets in the mid 30's and now it sits at 15 and change. Yes I own shares.
Earthstone's CEO Ray Singleton was very conservative in all of his actions and made sure he did not try to play the "all in" strategy and elevate risk - earthstone will be fine and more than fine and now that they are paired with Frank the company and stock will do extremely well as this all shakes out. USEG on the other hand has sub-par managers and Ms Molly so that is a lot of weight on their back. I see there are concerns in Libya this morning and who knows what else can come in to alter the price of oil. As I noted oil was due for a rebound today or this week as it was very oversold but whether it will be short or longer term (or even hold today) is the question in terms of the rebound's holding power. ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL TRUMP ALL CONCERNS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IS COMING AS I NOTED IN EARLIER POSTS. BE THERE. Boolean
carnage in the oil sector as it will derail the recovery and drive it right into the wall - GOLD would go to 4k an ounce or more as a recovery from it would be impossible. So - maybe this lasts to the end of the year and maybe not but we are closer to the bottom than the top for sure as the economic risk is enormous if this continues. Look at the fears building up right now - even in Canada. No prices won't soar back but rather moderate and rise back to +60's to start - mid 60's and then into the 70's. I have been building funds to buy the bottom - 2015 will be solid. Boolean
and don't count out some other news that will turn this oil collapse into stability - right now it is all negative and people think they have it all figured out but do they? Rising economic news from those like India and other can spin the psychology FAST. I don't know it it will but that is not out of the question especially with stochastics and RSI so oversold. It may be a dead cat bounce but I will bet this oversold condition will meet some resistance this week. I do have a stop though on my leveraged S&P in case havoc reigns. Boolean
of news around the globe and the tone is still NEGATIVE FOR OIL PRICES. It is rampant. Feels are strong that the Saudi's are doing this not only to hit shale producers but also Russia and Iraq and others they do not like. The outlook for now therefore is for lower oil prices BUT those like India who import a lot of oil will boost their economic outlook along with China as I noted and those are two key drivers of world-wide economic growth SO......that will be good for 2015 growth rates. The USA is already improving so lower fuel prices will only help........to a point. There will be pain for some no doubt. Do we drop to the 35 dollar oil level? Who knows but the strong players will be able to pick up property more cheaply and prepare themselves for the inevitable RISE IN OIL along with the ECONOMIC RISE.
**I would be very interested in hearing from others on what their thoughts and insights tell them at this juncture. And FACTS you have would be helpful in this discussion. The words AWASH IN OIL is like a bumper sticker for downward oil prices BUT I know economic growth will cure that especially with the cut-backs in drilling already being reported. The strong will get stronger and the weakest will die and others will be swallowed up by those stronger players. The end of this tunnel will be strong growth.
TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE FOLKS. Thanks in advance. Boolean
regression from the mean and a temporary bit of chaos - that is a lot different than a long term trend. The economic gain coming in 2015 will surprise on the upside - look at the growth increases being noted for India, the USA and even Vietnam - we will see China growth increase finally and they will have more stimulus coming in early 2015......beaten down oils will be solid winners and the noise about over supply will become noise about reduced supply.........psychology will change and UP GOES OIL/GAS. So hang tough and follow the beaten down companies with strength like earthstone energy and chevron and noble and so many more (I own shares in the first two but not noble yet.......do have transocean now. Be greedy when others are fearful.........blood in the streets means value. Boolean
oh yeah stochastics and RSI are oversold in oil but that can last longer under such a barrage but it does mean at least a short term rally may be on the horizon.......
sharply if this oil drop continues for long - strong players with outstanding managements like earthstone will come out even bigger winner on the next run --- as we said - tankers are moving into China in a big way now building up their reserves. All the countries with economies strengthening will really come into force in 2015. Technology could be the next group to be hit as they have been moving sharply higher so my stops will all be in place by Monday to protect those gains. Boolean
BUT maybe not -- this price slide is coming as the US is recovering and we see India another growth engine getting UPGRADES on its growth and China which as been slowing has now reached the point where stimulus is being added to drive them higher - Japan flip-flops in and out of growth but smaller economies like Vietnam and others are showing RISING growth rates for 2015. SO.....I hold firm to 2015 being the time when world-wide economic growth accelerates and that will cure all that ails oil/gas right now. And look at the Michigan consumer index and how bullish that was - do you really think that was all about lower gas prices at the pump........that is foolish. Look at the market - DOWN and many stocks have pulled back over the past year with small caps beaten back while the S&P races higher. I say oil prices will begin to rise by March 2015 and we will see 90-100 dollar oil later in the year as growth numbers rise and demand rises while output was diminished by this hammering oil slide. All the pundits are out now (where were they before) saying I told you so and oil is going to the 30's...........52-55 maybe in this drop but OIL DROP IS A NEGATIVE OVERALL FOR THE ECONOMY THIS TIME not a positive. And look at deflationary issues this causes along with job growth suppression. Now the drop has been quick, severe and painful but like a mutual fund that drop you keep buying IF you like what you hold and if you don't like what you hold then why hold it. Yes dollar cost averaging is more dangerous with a single stock so you must know the companies well that you do it with. Good luck - the drop shows no indication of relenting but that can change quickly -just don't look for the Saudi's to do it as they are nailed in on this to hurt those oil sectors they see as harming their overall leadership position. But make no mistake about it - this oil drop is not good for the US economy if it continues from here and Mr. Market is telling you that. Boolean
59.10 NYMEX -- key will be China stimulus announcement - if they delay the announcement thru the new year then we could drop to 46.50. India also needs to energize their economy. INFRASTRUCTURE REBUILD should happen across the major economies but they are holding on to that level and not pulling it yet - THEY KNOW THEY NEED TO. You can tell oil stocks are finding their oversold level and that we are closer to the bottom than the top in a solid manner. So stocks like we have here and Halliburton and schlumberger and so many more - even smaller ones like earthstone/energy will soar on this news. What we don't know is when does that news hit. The last two years of presidential cycle means that is when they kick in growth to win the white house again.
if it continues and the governments know that - if the economy tanks (the risks are rising if this drop continues) then it is all over and we will go into a severe depression with massive deflation and destruction. I say we are very close to the end and perhaps tomorrow when China comes out with their response we will see their stimulus as a positive and change the psychology. I own a lot of oil stocks and //earthstone/energy// is one to look at right. Certainly the oil etf is another. Boolean
a drop in oil is OK but if this drop continues (I see the bottom at 59.70- 60.20) it will severely damage economic growth. A little helps but a lot hurts and that is something the brain trust understands and will not allow it to take growth down PLUS bring on the pain of deflation. SO - oil stocks are poised to rise strongly but you don't catch the falling knife but you do start taking your first 20% BUY NOW and look to build as the story improves. Take a look at earthstone energy - I own chevron and Conoco and many many more. We are OK - this is a tough hit but no way will they allow this to continue much longer as it will destroy the economy. Boolean
You have the LMCI - labor market condition index out tomorrow so that will be interesting to see how it links up with the jobs data on last week - if it confirms it that will be huge for my BIG PICTURE and 2015 outlook. Tuesday you have the Small Business Optimism Index that will be informational regarding the general business condition and the EIA of comes out Wednesday with the petrol status report. China is out with some key data as well this week so we will see how their transition into building growth in the middle is working out. Oils drop was of course a huge economic stimulus for others than holders of oil/gas stocks but 2015 will bring it all home. Japan will come aboard as well as the USA moves in the next stage of this recovery. There will be a quick reversal in oil prices during Q1-2 as this growth becomes apparent. The outlook now by the EIA is for a modest recovery but they were wrong this year as well and will be again. Good luck folks. See you next Friday - until then think PERCENTAGES and VALUE. Boolean
investment style and SUCCESS - they hold stocks on average for 20......TWENTY YEARS and buy growing companies at bargain prices.......those with a story. They stick to their intellect and not to emotion. Some here don't get that and their low self esteem means they have to degrade others to support themselves. I understand that as I work with those folks every day. That is why I fed them emotional diet this past week to make them feel good - I hope he enjoyed it. Funny too that Primecap has had big wins now with Blackberry and biogen just as I have -- buy value with a strong recovery potential. That is why OIL is a great BUY now -- blood in the streets means VALUE not death. You will buy a bar of soap on sale but for stocks folks want the soaps price to quadruple before they buy it. WHAT???? Humans are an interesting species. Boolean
*I am/will be putting money to work until my holiday in Spain -- buying beaten down entities like oil/gas as the next run will soon be upon us. Boolean
The jobs report was right on cue. This growth will help to ignite world-wide growth and my call on 2015 will once again prove to be right on. This is why I am in buying. Oil will rise strongly along with the psychological alteration from negative to positive - psychology is key as always and as we roll into Q1 and 2 of 2015 the ignitors will be ON. Oil/gas demand will rise and the sector will be a top performer once again. Perfect. I invest for the long term and stay focused on the BIG PICTURE and the OUTCOME not the bumps on the pathway. That is why I keep adding to those that ARE SOLID PIECES OF THE OUTCOME. That is best practice. Same with my short on treasuries -- I remain up on that as it gets slammed hard and then you buy then it rises up and you averaged it down perfectly - IT IS THE OUTCOME and PERCENTAGES not day to day trivia. And when you can ride with managers like Frank and Ray well heck I just love that. If you think the USA is going into default and recession then you are way off. The drop in oil was a market place event not one brought on by intrinsic destruction of the core entity. There may still be gyrations into year end and so be it but our management team is on top of this and will come out ON TOP OF THIS. My contention remains BE THERE. And the stock did make a stand off of the max oversold as I said so that indicator appears to be holding strongly. The USA is back baby and will lead the world into the next economic expansion. Yes - BE THERE. Boolean