I use the NAT website. They will give you tanker rates at Intertanko. They may not be entirely accurate, but it gives you a great idea. Let's hope rates increase to finish off the quarter,
Looking good. I think we have some option re-positioning this week. I think some holders of the Spet 15s got called out. We'll see. I think we will be 16 and up into the next divi announcement.
I'm with you on the 20s' The last run up started at 12-13 and went up to 17. This one seems to start a but higher. Not very scientific, but we could see 19-20 by winter. The rates are in the 30s again after a couple weeks in the 20s. I'd like to see rates in the 60-70 by winter. If we hit the 90s, the price would surely hit mid 20s. If that happens, I'm retiring!!
It looks like the up tick is beginning again. I've been off and on this board for some time now and am long 28,200 shares at 13.09. I also hold 500 at 8 something in another account.
Those of you who were around during the last run up remember new highs day after day. The rate were in the 30-40 range and there were days we had 60s and 50s. The third quarter ranges from mid 20s to mid 30s. Herb wrote the letter saying he expects more of the same as Q1 and Q2. He kept money in hand and paid less than he could have in divis to pay for the ships coming. So I think we will be looking at .35-.40 again, but this time he won't have the extra cash on hand. I could be wrong if they were able to save on fuel costs and decrease their per ship cost of $12k. In one post, I thought the price would range from 17-19 based on past history in Q2. I wasn't far off having hit a high of 17.54. My mistake was not selling!!! This time around, I think we may see 18-19 in anticipation of the winter season. We may even see higher. I will be watching the rates closely!!! Good luck all you longs! We should have a good Christmas!
No worries. This was a great time to strengthen a position. So the stock price gets run up and the big boys sell in the 17s, pull it back before the ex-divi and by low and prepare for the next run up into earnings. The question is, will they hold after the earnings or sell in the run up?? There may be a sell on the news, but the fundamentals are still strong. Good luck. Let's hope you didn't get shaken out! Have a good weekend.
Great posts you two. The strategy the two of you speak of is a short term one. In my opinion, if this stock drops a dollar, I'll add to my holdings! Rates have not been this strong in years (2008)! If the rates and current geopolitical climate was different, I may agree with your strategy to play the momentum up to the ex div and sell into the run up. Then I would buy back after the dip if I wanted a long term position, or I'd leave and come back for the next run up next quarter. Buuuuut, this year is different! It may drop like you say, but did it not spring back up last quarter? Yes it did. And why? Because the pendulum has swung back in favor of the shippers. Oil is cheap, demand is there and rates are rising as a result. I'm long here until the 20s. Good luck with your strategy and I'm sure you'll profit, but long into the fall and winter is where the payoff is. If Herb says he could have paid .60 and withheld, watch out 20 here we come. I've never been so bullish in my life! Of course I'm biased with my long, but don't get in the way of a freight train! Long 27,500 shares @ 13.10 and long 1000 shares @ 8.24. GLTA!!!!!
It's gone.....What do we think the close will be??? Are 16s in the rear view mirror?? I sure hope so. My guess is 18s by the 10th.
Geesh....it looks like 21.50 may be the target upside here. Who knows. From the current price, that's a nice profit! I suggest not standing in front of a freight train!! This sucker is on a tear!!! Just wait until the upgrades come in. When Jeffries (spelling?) ups there target to 11, that's when I buy!! LOL!!
WOW!!! Huge open. I wonder if this will close above 17?? Thoughts??
17-19 here we come. Any valid opinions based on numbers that we hit 20 by the fall. Logic please.
I have to brag here. I was up 100k toward the end of the day!!!! This is very exciting!! I think we have more room to run. This is a repeat of options expiration last month. It looks like we'll blow thru the 16's in a hurry!! Come on 20. I did say in a previous post that if you look at NAT in 2008, the spot rates were high and the price of the stock is similar. If you account for secondary offerings, we should be in the 17-19 range. HERE IT COMES!!
Ok .40. It looks like Herb is hoarding cash. I wonder what he could have paid this time?? I suspect earnings will be very strong. If rates hold up and the typical fall and winter rise in rates holds, I wouldn't be surprised if 17 flies by and we slow march to 19. I think 20 may be lofty. If we hit 20, I'll buy everybody drinks!!
I like the way you think!! A nickel raise would be great!! I wrote in a previous post about all my thoughts. I'll see if I can find it. I think they will hold back to hoard cash so they can buy ships with cash and not a secondary offering. If we get over sixteen this week, I'll jump for joy. Options expire on Friday, so if we can hold 16's by Friday and close above 16, 17 may come in a hurry! Good Luck! Talk to ya' in the morning!! I'll say.......38 again. I hope I'm wrong!! We should be rewarded for holding this long!!!
We sure do! A great day today. Here's my 2 cents. .38 tomorrow. Spot rates remain strong. Outlook positive. More eye on NAT. A potential sell on the news giving buyers a chance to sell high here and get in lower prior to divi date.
I was in around the 30s some years back. I also remember Cramer having Herb on a few times. If I remember right, Cramer got burned by the secondary offerings. Cramer made the recommendation singing Herb's praises, then Cramer and those who bought got burned by a surprise secondary. I believe there were 2 secondaries pretty close together. On top of that, rates started to drop. The result...a mass exodus out of the industry.
Since then, the rates have improved and market conditions seem strong. Oil is cheap and in demand and rates are pretty steady going into the fall. I suspect rates will rise into the fall and winter. Herb made a good call paying out .38 last quarter and keeping cash on hand. Herb paid out a dividend during the hard times and will need to improve the already strong balance sheet. He will need cash to shore up an older fleet and buy new ships. He has 2 new builds in the process which should decrease the average age of the fleet. The cash can only help. Having cash will decrease the need to offer a secondary which dilutes the stock price. As a share holder, I wish he would have paid the .57, but it was a smart move to keep the cash.
The second quarter rates were much like the first. I'd love to see a slight rise in the dividend payout, but I think Herb may stick with the conservative strategy and keep cash. He probably got flack for the secondaries and figures he can pay cash the next time he needs a ship. I'll guess a divi of .38 again. The logic being, fall and winter are typical strong months in the spot market, so if Herb can stockpile cash in historically weak quarters, that bodes well for future growth of the company. I believe if the market is strong in the fall and winter, we will see a larger divi payout. We'll see. The greedy side of me says.....announce a .50 divi on Wed.!!!!!! Good luck to all. Disclosure: 1k shares at 8.24 and 27,500 at 13.10. Long here.