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Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. Message Board

boonenrgtrader 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2015 2:25 PM Member since: Dec 23, 2012
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  • boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 27, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    I think the next month will be very active for MHR.....I hope we can get a few more good articles!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 22, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    Jimmy, nice summary....I would even suggest especially in this down market to include a premium for the synergy of the current production, the 18 mboe/day estimated to be online by mid year, and the pipeline which allows the great acreage to get product to market. Some of the comparative acreage being bought by other companies doesn't have a chance of adding revenue for years due to no midstream resources. Add the fact that MHR will be tying in to major transport lines giving them access to the NE, South and Gulf export markets makes them a real contender. NE sector seeing one nuclear facility come offline earlier this month, multiple coal fired electrical facilities converting to NG in April/May will create more pull for product from the Marcellus and Utica areas.

    Management would be crazy to sell the company any time before cash & credit is exhausted.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 18, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    I was where Southwestern Energy was buying high return investments in the Marcellus/Utica....is XOM looking at purchases like this or just buying back stock?http://seekingalpha.com/article/2802275-southwestern-energy-making-surprising-moves-in-a-tough-environment

    Sentiment: Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 18, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    I saw where CHK sold to SWN....if it is that good why did they sell?http://seekingalpha.com/article/2802275-southwestern-energy-making-surprising-moves-in-a-tough-environment

    Sentiment: Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 18, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    What portion of revenue is nat gas? I saw an article talking about improving nat gas prices...http://seekingalpha.com/article/2788585-natural-gas-bulls-ready-to-charge-bears-as-cold-weather-forecast-firms

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Anyone notice the production slide for 2015? Looks like we get to 50mmboe /day and stop - no indication of additional wells coming online...preserving capital? Selling ?

    Interesting.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 13, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    I also spoke with Cham King in investor relations....he confirmed that the published presentations will be correct and an update 8-k issued in the morning.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 12, 2015 7:43 PM Flag

    Do you think Exxon would but a company like SWN to get the asset base and pipelines?http://seekingalpha.com/article/2802275-southwestern-energy-making-surprising-moves-in-a-tough-environment

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Interesting article on SA http://seekingalpha.com/article/2802275-southwestern-energy-making-surprising-moves-in-a-tough-environment

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 10, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    Look at the economies of Venezuela, Brazil, etc....they must be getting really upset with S.A.!

    Pres. Obama is probably happy about the low price and the impact it will have for the US consumer in the short run.

    Seems to me that the big oil producers in the US would find a way to drop production by 1.5-2. million barrels a day to get these prices back up. The decrease in volume would be more than offset by the increase in price.

    Seems like the oil majors are just looking to see the little guys start dropping through bankruptcy and they will be able to pick them up at cheap prices. Losers in this case will be shareholders and banks.

    If it goes too far, oil will be back up to $110 - $120 a barrel in short order.

    Given that Warren Buffett has a big stake in Exxon Mobil, I doubt that this problem will go to long because Exxon will not want to reduce their dividend to Buffett. Some environmental issue with rail cars will be identified and shipments from the Bakken stopped before Buffett accepts a slowdown in those dividend payments.

    Magnum Hunter has financing to handle this time period, and as soon as the Eureka Hunter is linked with the major pipelines to the northeast, their cash flow will increase dramatically as they begin more of that 1.5 billion btu/day capacity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nat Gas Report

    by rustbeltbob Jan 8, 2015 10:06 AM
    boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 8, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Just a guess but would imagine it being double that next week - 265 - 290+ depending on the level of freeze offs in Texas, Colorado and Ohio/WV/Penn.

    If next week is anything like this week, we should see a change in market perspective.....

    Has anyone seen updates on Mexico exports from the US and Canadian exports to the US for this week?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I saw an article talking about how the sector might bounce with the upcoming widespread cold ...http://seekingalpha.com/article/2788585-natural-gas-bulls-ready-to-charge-bears-as-cold-weather-forecast-firms

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 6, 2015 12:05 AM Flag

    RRC referenced in article http://seekingalpha.com/article/2788585-natural-gas-bulls-ready-to-charge-bears-as-cold-weather-forecast-firms

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • boonenrgtrader by boonenrgtrader Jan 6, 2015 12:03 AM Flag

    Interested article on http://seekingalpha.com/article/2788585-natural-gas-bulls-ready-to-charge-bears-as-cold-weather-forecast-firms

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Candidate Poll

    by billjohns784 Jan 3, 2015 2:06 PM
    boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 3, 2015 11:05 PM Flag

    Upton, I agree in part.....SWN or RRC or AR....it might happen pre-IPO but not as likely, however the potential buyers might want to take the whole company to get the interest in the pipeline prior a premium is added due to the IPO....but management should make this be at $12 - $15....the well cost being achieved is noteworthy as well as IRR.....anything less than that and we don't need management to negotiate anything.....

    So, I would expect a H2 2015 sale, $15-$18 and SWN seems to be on a buying spree and would like to have the pipeline and seems to be in a stronger financial position than the other two.....but watch for someone like Rice to come in with an attractive offer as they have similar growth aspirations to SWN.....

    If MHRs exit rate is greater than 35k equiv barrels/day for Dec 2014....with demonstrated ability to delivery 45 k by end of Q1 2015....move those estimates up by $2 per share!

  • Reply to

    Buyout Speculation?

    by wazoo_wazoo_wazoo Jan 2, 2015 12:15 PM
    boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 2, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    Gary, what do you think will be the final structure of the IPO of the pipeline....i.e., will it be structured to return value to the shareholders immediately, or in a way that MHR gets the benefit at a corporate level and uses to grow production in 2015 to prove more reserves and position for a higher selling price?

    With companies like Southwestern actively buying in the Marcellus/Utica, can you see structuring a deal with them or Antero to close in 2015?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Speculation?

    by wazoo_wazoo_wazoo Jan 2, 2015 12:15 PM
    boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 2, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    I agree with your timing....but I think your price is low....$10-$11.50 is reasonable given the quality of the assets, and the pipeline capacity of 1.5bcf.....the room for growth in production and transport will provide a larger producer a nice return....if they wait until late 2015 more production will be online and proven reserves up even further..$15-$18 value.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    tax selling is over and its getting colder

    by realfoxiegirl Jan 1, 2015 9:34 PM
    boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 2, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    Foxie, article that is discussing your point...http://seekingalpha.com/article/2788585-natural-gas-bulls-ready-to-charge-bears-as-cold-weather-forecast-firms

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How long can MHR endure these commodity prices?

    by not_a_short Jan 1, 2015 11:24 PM
    boonenrgtrader boonenrgtrader Jan 2, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    DWT, You are probably correct.....buyout in 2H 2015!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Article in Seeking Alpha mentions MHR and other companies potentially affected by colder weather....didn't see it on the yahoo MHR list but can access with linkhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2788585-natural-gas-bulls-ready-to-charge-bears-as-cold-weather-forecast-firms

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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