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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

booney_1 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2014 7:27 PM Member since: Jan 31, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Christian Kermarrec retiring or fired??

    by booney_1 Jun 28, 2014 11:53 AM
    booney_1 booney_1 Jun 29, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    SEC filing says July 11th. I think it's an odd time to retire. We are just starting a nice growth phase in semi's. All portions of IDTI's business should do well over the next couple of quarters. Unless Christian has another opportunity waiting, he would have done well financially to wait a couple of quarters.

  • Reply to

    Christian Kermarrec retiring or fired??

    by booney_1 Jun 28, 2014 11:53 AM
    booney_1 booney_1 Jun 28, 2014 8:15 PM Flag

    I was surprised when Christian was placed in charge of HSC. I don't know if he was doing a good job or not, but I know that previously he did not have any experience in this space. At Analog Devices he had nothing to do with this market or technology. This space is incredibly competitive and specialized. I hope the next guy has experience with A/D converters. I'm not even sure IDTI should be in this space. ADI and TI are 800 pound guerillas here. IDTI does not have any special edge.
    ADI and Ti some of their own processes that are better to these products than TSMC's cmos.
    Of course, they also have access to TSMC.

  • Christian Kermarrec is "retiring". Is this voluntary, or is he being forced out

  • Recent news (yesterday) indicated a taiwan factory will begin manufacturing the iwatch in july. Several features were described including wireless charging...hmmm...todays volume very high...big price jump. Did somebody at the factory tell somebody what was in the BOM (build of materials)? Or is this jump just people guessing?

  • Reply to

    Why would GE buy CREE The Street is all wrong

    by ttmarun Jun 13, 2014 2:47 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 Jun 13, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    CREE has better technology than anybody else. More lumens per watt.

  • Reply to

    PRICE TARGET 20!!

    by monett4 May 7, 2014 9:48 AM
    booney_1 booney_1 Jun 12, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    somethings up. volume has been skyhigh. Yesterday IDTI up while everybody else is down.. I'm hoping that somebody's major product will have IDTI based wireless power...how about an iwatch + iphone6?? .....

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 Jun 9, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    I don't think the 450mm transition is even on the horizon. In the past major size transitions were accompanied by a couple nodes moves. I think this time, since we are bumping up against the end of Moore's law, the 450mm transition will have to be justified economically by only the increase in wafer size. Further, unless EUV has a breakthough (unlikely...ASML is spending billions on R&D with incredible difficulty), the finfet processes at the 10 and 7nm nodes will require more photo steps as a percent of the process. This means, less productivity improvement when going to 450mm. (stepper time ~ proportional to wafersize).

    Eventually it will happen, but it might look different than other transitions. Maybe Intel will pay for proprietary equipment? Or have some profit sharing deal with the semi equipment companies.

    I think the space is in good shape for the next few years as a very equipment intensive transition to 3D processes is occuring.

    Anyways...good day today for all tech!

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 Jun 3, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    I have been in this space (semi-equip) since early 90's. I don't consider these guys cutting edge tech anymore. They are the new core industrial stocks. There is no chance of getting a 10 bagger out of them, but on the other hand, they are much more stable. They have a lot of cash, they pay a dividend. For the first time in 10 years(?), I think we will be seeing significant changes in semi-technology that will require new equipment. Companies will really have to "pay to play". We are also on the cusp of much more silicon being sold. The required semiconductor content in "smart cars" (let alone driverless cars) is staggering. Anyways, i'm pretty bullish on the equipment companies. Did you see that AMAT and KLAC both indicated a rebound in sales for calendar Q4? Yeah..I love days like today!!!

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 May 31, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    I had not thought about this, but it would be an interesting move. The first problem would be LRCX might lose up to half their sales, as TSMC and SamSung might not want to support a competitor. On the other hand, it would be a great way for INTC to keep their technology secret. Going forward from today I think one of the fab companies will "win" by developing technology others don't have. For many years it's been pretty simple to simply shrink your process (with the help of equipment vendors), but going forward will require things like the FinFet structures. Also I suspect new materials, like AMAT's Colbalt will be important. If INTC or TSMC could get a 2 year lead on the others...they would be golden...

    I currently have a very small position in INTC, but plan on adding more during this summers correction (fingers crossed). I believe that they have a serious lead now over TSMC, and may be able to monetize this lead in mobile. Process development has never been more difficult than today, and I respect INTC's people.

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 May 29, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    I have two main points. First, LRCX is starting to throw off a lot of cash. Estimates of cash flow by 2017 are close to $8 a share and expected to still grow. This type of yield is hard to get any place else but by owning the whole company. Second, there are still plenty of ways to attract/compensate employees in a private company. And the status of semiconductor equipment companies is far different now than 20 years ago. Key employees only have a couple of possible places to go. AMAT and LRCX, while good investments (IMHO), are not high flying startups. LRCX will not increase by 4 or 5x in the next couple of years. Stock options (and now restricted stock) are best utilized by start-ups and smaller companies who cannot offer a large salary or job security. So I think LRCX is ripe for either going private or a benevolent takeover. (I do agree a hostile take over would not be advised, as enough key talent could leave...and after all LRCX is the type of company where the value is the people they employee) Anyways...I'm looking forward to Apples new product announcements...I don't care what they are...I just want them to use lots of silicon processors, Flash memory, communications chips.....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • booney_1 booney_1 May 28, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    I think that this is a sign or marker that wireless charging is about to take off. IDTI will obviously have a lot of competition. I don't think anybody can choose one "winner" among the different companies. IDTI will have to hustle, execute and continue to innovate. If they just get good "taste" of this market the stock will benefit.
    Luckily there are a variety of cell phone makers, so if you lose the LG account, then there is still Samsung, Apple, Amazon(?), HP, Lenova, HTC, Dell. Wireless charging will be in cell phones, but also laptops, tablets, headphones. (what else??). Also the cell phone business is a brutally tough market for semiconductor companies. With every generation of phones, you need to win the account again. And a "generation" for a cell phone production is probably 2 years or so. There is also a good chance that a big maker of cell phones would not single source this socket. They can play manufacturers off against each other for pricing or other considerations.....go wireless charging!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 May 27, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    It's interesting LRCX is having a meeting with their biggest shareholder (~13%). It would be a great candidate to just take private. They have $17 cash per share.. The market cap is $10B. With almost $500 in leveraged cash flow, that will certainly grow in the next two years...this makes a pretty compelling buy. (ie. 5% yield today, but growing fast)

  • Why would LRCX be having a special meeting with JP Morgan???

  • Reply to

    850 Million Buy Back + Dividend

    by booney_1 Apr 29, 2014 5:53 PM
    booney_1 booney_1 May 1, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    KLAC pays almost a 3% dividend. AAPL pays over 2%. Paying a dividend will bring in more buyers and also puts a floor on valuation. I think in today's climate, where companies are sitting on billions of dollars, there is a new "normal". Part of the new normal is that even high tech companies have a reason to pay some dividends. LRCX is sitting on over $15/share cash. Their free cash flow is over $2 a share. As Warren Buffet would say.."better to return cash to shareholders than engage in diworsification".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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