Yes, they have come through a rough patch pretty good. Anything positive with 135 will be an upside move, all things HCV have been negative recently with Vertex. Even selling it off will be positive. I'm looking at longer term at-the-money calls....I have high confidence in the whole CF franchise over 3-4 years. Still a thread of hope around some sort of deal with RA and/or Flu...although diminishing hope!
i'm not sure how to get revs but....market cap is around $85m.....Brinavess alone should generate 200-300m (low end) once US is approved and commercial ramps up...high end globally could be around $500m......I can see this going to 25-30 easy......and then doubling in 2 years.
You kiss your daughter with that mouth? Nice.
A sale is possible but that rumor has been swirling around vertex for at least 5 years so probably will not happen.
nice! I have $5 calls for mar '14 so will sit on those....usually i just sell to close options but if this continues i think i would exercise and hold the shares. trying to estimate an fda approval.....2x at least on the share price. the only uncertainty is their ability to execute on the revenue plans.....they really need to start showing that in 2014.....they have built their commercial side and now it's time to sell some product.
yes, don't want to joke about your condition but don't be too (pleasantly) shocked by the good news today. The article will help with the FDA discussion. As conservative as they are, the evidence of effectiveness for Brinavess is overwhelming at this point.
i had to call my broker....the price of my puts was not increasing at the rate the stock was falling.....market maker games! i called and actually exercised the put to force the sale (i had $2 puts)....i then had to buy the equivalent number of shares to offset that contract being exercised......worth the hassle....if i closed at the market it was about 30-40% less than exercising the contract.
kept some on the table though....i think it will fall further.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Good luck with your procedure and welcome! I think the recent purchase is a really good move and there is great synergy between the two companies. Not only does it give Cardiome a more direct/faster way to market using existing channels, but also comes with revenue stream which should off set concerns around cash flow while Brinavess ramps up. Good move! The 64k dollar question remains around the US market and we're all waiting patiently for the outcome of their FDA discussions on next steps. I'm feeling positive given the track record and real life useage of Brinavess in other countries. With the focus on cost of healthcare in the US right now the potential of substantial savings in treatments is a big carrot. They said early 2014 for this news....would be nice to get an early xmas present though!
Leiden might be incompetent....but not that incompetent that he has to do another layoff already! Joking aside, the board Need to start asking tough questions. cf was in place long before he got there so he's riding those coat tails. His proclamations around flu, RA and HCV.....plus promised other therapies have gone nowhere. Also heard he is building an ivory tower in their new headquarters......vertex has lost it's humility. Spending like sailors in port while the ship sinks.
was researching it....google "Star Scientific’s Williams stepping down as CEO"
The company is corrupt. Those coming in already have financial ties to the company and are essentially coming in to try to save their hides. The shareholder lawsuit is key. There is a strong case that the company deceived the public and the product does not work like they said. Awful. Leaving this board right now (although I could always short)!
I would recommend the at the money LEAPs for 2015.....less down up front but if you still believe in the CF (and other?) bounce then it should pay off.
my highlights: They expect to meet with the FDA in "early 2014" to review the product and feel after 10,000 treatments in Europe they have a compelling story.
They stated it takes about 6 mnths to bring a new hospital on board from first call to product delivery which explains the low revenue this year. They have just brought sales force on board but the bulk of their sales will not hit until 2014. They are still working UK, Italy and France (i think) which are substantial markets that they are not yet in. Also, they need about $1m euro/month in sales to break even but did not say when they think they will hit that. they expect a bumpy Q4 due to most of Europe basically closing down for weeks over the holiday period. Definitely a 2014 story. i expect the reduced costs of hospital stays due to faster recovery using Brinavess will be a big sell with the FDA given the costs of hospital stays in the US. it has been proven safe in a very large population. it is more effective/faster than current standard care and saves a lot of money when you factor in hospital stays (or lack of using their product). I would be disappointed if the FA did not approve this product. it would (again) prove their incompetence and parochial viewpoint. we're all human.....USA humans are no different than Euro humans when it comes to AF!
They have already stated that they will partner for 509 (and flu). Nothing has developed over 18 months on either. They seem to be stuck in neutral on this strategy. Exiting HCV is probably a good thing at this point, the kool aid has turned sour on that. Big miss. I have to say, while I am holding for now and have been long for a couple of years, I am losing faith in their ability to execute on business strategy. The good science is being held back by executive incompetence. I expect the stock to bump up a little on Tuesdays call. Massive cuts bring expenses under control. Longer term, they better have more than CF. They have a lot of cash and should use it.
scenario: large force reduction, exiting Hep C, no partnerships in flu or RA, poor record since Dr Leiden took over (222, alios nucs, clinical trial errors, CF data errors, business strategy non-existent). Where does the share price go market open on Tuesday?
they are meeting with the FDA on this to get approval to move forward in the US. Will be huge if/when they get it. I'mhoping it's sometime this year or very early 2014.
omg..I am long on this but 1b? really ...maybe in 10 years...but probably not..ever.....400m max...good company but stop pumping like this