Apparently Zetia can have some pretty serious side effects -- if you google "Zetia side effects" you will find multiple links to sites describing a variety of muscle pain/joint pain and liver issues suffered by patients using Zetia. Some sites have comments from past users describing in more details the problems they experienced. So safety/side effects may become an issue here, especially given the almost absence of side effects for Vascepa.
IMO the launch has been successful and is proceeding strongly ... scripts are still increasing w/w by about 20% every week, Tier 2 achieved well ahead of expectation, massive expansion of Tier 2 and Tier 3 coverage, very positive response by medical community ... the idea that Amarin will run out of money any time soon is simply untrue.
My time horizon is well beyond Q1 so all I care is the continued growth and the added catalysts ahead -- Tier 2 kicking in, word-of-mouth dissemination, combo pill results, Anchor PDUFA date and approval later on, combo patents on the way, API sppliers sNDA approvals, etc.
You're probably right but it's undeniable that the quality of discussion has greatly deteriorated here over the past few weeks thanks to mindless bashers who offer no insight other than absolute negativity.
Scripts -- data reported shows 20 plus percent increase w/w so far, up to over 1,200 for the w/e March 8. There are reasons to believe that this rate of increase will be sustained for a while given a) staggered cycle of conversions from Lovaza (users still have old Lovaza supplies to finish; they see their doctors every few months), and b) recent award of Tier 2 status by Medco/Express Scripts, and c) spreading word-of-mouth among peers about efficacy and results observed from early users.
NCE -- no word, hard to guess, if FDA wanted to say "No" why haven't they done it already?
Patents moat continues to grow -- there seem to be movement on patent for combo pill -- Vascepa plus Lipitor/Vascepa plus Crestor.
Combo pill -- study results due out by mid-year -- could be major plus for market prospects.
Anchor -- FDA should let company know by mid-May if Anchor sNDA has been accepted; if it is, it will also set PDUFA date, most likely no later than December 2013 (low probability of earlier date).
Finance -- definitely enough cash on hand through at least end of year.
Partnerships -- no word so far, just speculations. If Anchor sNDA accpeted, then would expect developments/announcements before PDUFA date.
Stock price -- not doing well -- people who were in it for a quick kill are/have been getting out -- many shorts hoping company fails to execute successfully.
My opinion is that so far they have been executing well in the areas that they have been able to control. Hope this helps.
I disagree with your implication that the cost is overly onerous -- compared to what? compared to the cost of dilution trying to sell equity instead?
$50mm in interest is equivalent to 26 cents per fully diluted share -- yes, it would have been nice if they had found a bank willing to lend $100mm for 4% a year, but absent that they went with the most shareholder-friendly option -- non-dilutive venture debt.
golong -- you have the baseline wrong.
Lovaza launched in October 2005 -- so the six months that you're talking about (Jan through June of 2006) would correspond to April to end of August 2013 for Vascepa.
Also, Vascepa has done at least 2,000 scripts in February based on IMS data (which typically under-reports true results). So your calculations all need to be re-worked.
I agree with your summary based strictly on the CC discussion.
However, the 10K has multiple references to their cash position -- sufficient for next 12 months for Marine, Reduce-It and preparations for commercializing Anchor -- however, full Anchor commercialization will require partnership or raising additional capital. This was repeated at least 3 or 4 times in the 10K.
So we must assume that Anchor partnership, while not a key priority over the next few months, will definitely be a major item in 2013.