Short covering is actually buying back shares one gas gone short, thus short covering. Short covering typically exerts upward pressure on a stock.
Just go to stocks 100 - 143 of the IBB, they are all down huge but to humor you I will start from the beginning of the IBB.
BMRN, ENPO, MDVN, ANAC, ICPT, ACAD, AKRX, RDUS, AGIO, PCRX, HALO, NVAX, CMRX, ALDR, IRWD, SAGE, FOLD, MNTA, ARIX, DEPO, CLVS, NLNK, THRX, INSM, MACK, PTCT, FMI, OMER, ENTA, PDLI AND PROBABLY 40 MORE.
Most of the 30-50% decline in these stocks has happened in last 6 months and most of the CEO's make far more than Squarer......
You're wrong. There are plenty of biotech's that have tanked this year where the CEO makes about the same if not more than Squarer - you want me to list them all dope?
Should we get favorable phase 3 results from NEMO and the stock recovers in price, I would consider doing a reverse merger with LOXO, where LOXO is the surviving company. ARRY shareholders would own about 60% of the combined company with a stock trading in the 30's. LOXO would get our pile of cash and we would get a direct interest vs a royalty interest and milestone deal in LOXO-101. I would make the LOXO management the surviving management team as well.
LOXO-101 has had some really eye-opening results in the solid tumor area. Solid tumors are in many different cancers (and non-cancers) so lots of market opportunities. I wouldn't be surprised if this compound gets on an accelerated FDA path if it keeps posting impressive results......
Now, isn't this type of post more interesting than ranting about Squarer!!!
Squarer's comp is not out of line with other Biotech companies. The proportion of cash (25%) to stock (75%) is exactly what shareholders want. The stock option portion is overstated in terms of value as Black-Scholes does a poor job of estimating value of a 10-year stock option for a low price but volatile stock. Right now, the value of Squarer's last option grant is $0 as the strike price is higher than the market price. Don't we want someone who holds options that has every incentive in the world to get the stock price as high as possible?? Because, that is exactly what we have....
Ultimately, you are not betting on Squarer. We are betting on Novartis and AstraZeneca to bring our molecules through phase 3 trials. So ARRY is a bet on our promising molecules and two of the biggest pharma companies in the world who are funding our trials. Furthermore, we have a carried interest on other compounds controlled by LOXO and ONTY where Squarer does nothing. The only time we need Squarer is when we file our NDA's and we have to build a salesforce to get our compounds in the market to generate sales. Then we will have the right to #$%$ and moan all we want about Squarer, but the time is not now.
Actually, quite a lot was said, especially during the Q&A. Specifically, the questions asked by the Stifel analyst. He pushed them on how indicative the phase 2 results were for NRAS as it relates to efficacy and likely outcome to phase 3 NEMO trial. The answers were very explicit, especially by the CMO Sandor. Further, they elaborated on the sales plan should the drug get NDA approved. The phase 3 data collection period ended in September so I imagine Sandor's comments are knowledgeable ones.
Stifel analyst put out a conference update note yesterday. He reiterated his buy recommendation and upped price target to $9 from $8 I believe. The tone of the note seemingly was more confident. If good results from NEMO, discount rates are lowered and price targets creep upward. Furthermore, I believe Squarer referenced that French partner would release a milestone payment with NEMO results as well.
On November 11th, clinical trial website was updated. Data completion date was revised back to end of September 2015 to May 2016. Stock was up on the 12th in a bad tape - probably why.
I've noticed that ARRY tends to be correlated to the movement in Valeant recently - VRX. I've noticed some of the large healthcare oriented hedge funds who own ARRY also own VRX. Makes one wonder when there is a drawdown in VRX, does it cause these funds to rebalance to maintain leverage at a constant level. So when you have a large drawdown in a large cap stock like VRX, you need to sell a lot of the other holdings in the portfolio to keep the leverage and risk constant.
Of course, these are technical points. Ultimately what will drive the value of ARRY are the fundamentals of the molecules that are progressing through trials. We are all awaiting NEMO and partner for ex-US development and distribution, probably a European company.
Looks like NEMO trial was updated on the website document. The data completion date was changed from September 2015 to May 2016. Therefore, I imagine this means the top-line results of NEMO will not be disclosed until mid-2016. This probably explains why stock has been weak last couple days. I guess the positive in this delay is if the trial was proving inconclusive or negative, the trial would have been halted based on data collected to date.
I imagine this complicates the dynamic of negotiating an ex-US development and distribution partnership by year-end 2015. Since this was a deal term with Novartis earlier this year and Novartis is running this trial and responsible for the delay, I wonder if ARRY would also seek to push this deal requirement with Novartis into 2016 as well.
Where would ARRY be if the company was unable to secure the two MEK molecules from Novartis in the spring of this year? We now have two wholly-owned molecules in a hot space in multiple phase 2 & 3 trials with Novartis paying for most of the development and path to a NDA in 2016. The fact that Squarer pulled this off arguably created $230 MM ($3 current $5 level) off instant value and perhaps with upside to $2 B or more. Paying Squarer $1 MM per year with stock grants on top seems small relative to the value the has and will be created.
The next 4-6 weeks are going to be critical. We are going to get results on NEMO and top line on phase 2. company will also identify European partner. I imagine our CEO is threading a needle right now balancing the leverage he will have to negotiate a better deal should we get positive top-line results in these trials vs taking the money now before the results are announced. Based on the read-through from ESMO and the June data, I would wait for the results to get a great deal.
Stop the yapping about Squarer. He is not going anywhere in next 4-6 weeks which are probably the most critical in the company's history. He may be a monkey but he is our monkey!!
Is being presented this week in Boston as it relates to the treatment of solid malignant tumors. ARRY has a development deal with LOXO. In exchange for development rights of the compound from ARRY, ARRY received about 1 MM shares in LOXO, rights to milestone payments of $435 MM during the course of the molecules development and royalty payments should the molecule be commercialized.
ARRY owns about 1 MM shares of LOXO. Other than this ownership stake, how does ARRY participate in LOXO molecules? Are they jointly developing? What is the exact connection?
Novartis is now compiling data to assess primary outcome of phase 3 trials. Data should be released anytime. NRAS melanoma is a large global market. This could be big for ARRY.........
Too much carping about the CEO and not enough discussion on the real value at the company - the molecules and the trials. The Abstracts filed with ESMO were fantastic and shine a great light on how some of our phase 3 trials may result in positive results. At the end of the day, we have some great molecules with real companies AstraZeneca and Novartis running and funding the trials. Furthermore, the company is forced to find a European partner to maintain its economic interest in the molecules. If you don't have great molecules and great structured clinical trials, it doesn't matter if you have the best CEO in biopharma on earth running the company. We could actually have a gorilla running ARRY and we could still make a ton of $$$ given our partnerships and molecules.
I don't totally dismiss the CEO issue, but the significant holders will way in with the BOD in this regard. It is annual meeting and proxy time with ARRY.