On November 11th, clinical trial website was updated. Data completion date was revised back to end of September 2015 to May 2016. Stock was up on the 12th in a bad tape - probably why.
I've noticed that ARRY tends to be correlated to the movement in Valeant recently - VRX. I've noticed some of the large healthcare oriented hedge funds who own ARRY also own VRX. Makes one wonder when there is a drawdown in VRX, does it cause these funds to rebalance to maintain leverage at a constant level. So when you have a large drawdown in a large cap stock like VRX, you need to sell a lot of the other holdings in the portfolio to keep the leverage and risk constant.
Of course, these are technical points. Ultimately what will drive the value of ARRY are the fundamentals of the molecules that are progressing through trials. We are all awaiting NEMO and partner for ex-US development and distribution, probably a European company.
Actually, quite a lot was said, especially during the Q&A. Specifically, the questions asked by the Stifel analyst. He pushed them on how indicative the phase 2 results were for NRAS as it relates to efficacy and likely outcome to phase 3 NEMO trial. The answers were very explicit, especially by the CMO Sandor. Further, they elaborated on the sales plan should the drug get NDA approved. The phase 3 data collection period ended in September so I imagine Sandor's comments are knowledgeable ones.
Stifel analyst put out a conference update note yesterday. He reiterated his buy recommendation and upped price target to $9 from $8 I believe. The tone of the note seemingly was more confident. If good results from NEMO, discount rates are lowered and price targets creep upward. Furthermore, I believe Squarer referenced that French partner would release a milestone payment with NEMO results as well.
Squarer's comp is not out of line with other Biotech companies. The proportion of cash (25%) to stock (75%) is exactly what shareholders want. The stock option portion is overstated in terms of value as Black-Scholes does a poor job of estimating value of a 10-year stock option for a low price but volatile stock. Right now, the value of Squarer's last option grant is $0 as the strike price is higher than the market price. Don't we want someone who holds options that has every incentive in the world to get the stock price as high as possible?? Because, that is exactly what we have....
Ultimately, you are not betting on Squarer. We are betting on Novartis and AstraZeneca to bring our molecules through phase 3 trials. So ARRY is a bet on our promising molecules and two of the biggest pharma companies in the world who are funding our trials. Furthermore, we have a carried interest on other compounds controlled by LOXO and ONTY where Squarer does nothing. The only time we need Squarer is when we file our NDA's and we have to build a salesforce to get our compounds in the market to generate sales. Then we will have the right to #$%$ and moan all we want about Squarer, but the time is not now.
Should we get favorable phase 3 results from NEMO and the stock recovers in price, I would consider doing a reverse merger with LOXO, where LOXO is the surviving company. ARRY shareholders would own about 60% of the combined company with a stock trading in the 30's. LOXO would get our pile of cash and we would get a direct interest vs a royalty interest and milestone deal in LOXO-101. I would make the LOXO management the surviving management team as well.
LOXO-101 has had some really eye-opening results in the solid tumor area. Solid tumors are in many different cancers (and non-cancers) so lots of market opportunities. I wouldn't be surprised if this compound gets on an accelerated FDA path if it keeps posting impressive results......
Now, isn't this type of post more interesting than ranting about Squarer!!!
You're wrong. There are plenty of biotech's that have tanked this year where the CEO makes about the same if not more than Squarer - you want me to list them all dope?
Just go to stocks 100 - 143 of the IBB, they are all down huge but to humor you I will start from the beginning of the IBB.
BMRN, ENPO, MDVN, ANAC, ICPT, ACAD, AKRX, RDUS, AGIO, PCRX, HALO, NVAX, CMRX, ALDR, IRWD, SAGE, FOLD, MNTA, ARIX, DEPO, CLVS, NLNK, THRX, INSM, MACK, PTCT, FMI, OMER, ENTA, PDLI AND PROBABLY 40 MORE.
Most of the 30-50% decline in these stocks has happened in last 6 months and most of the CEO's make far more than Squarer......
Short covering is actually buying back shares one gas gone short, thus short covering. Short covering typically exerts upward pressure on a stock.
Truly pathetic complaining about the CEO.... Amazing how many folks just react to the share price and do little work on what they own. Guarantee when this stock is trading in the teens we will not hear a word about the CEO.
Just so you know how it works, the restricted stock the CEO received is subject to a vesting schedule. When the stock vests, one owes withholding tax on the value as ordinary income. Many restricted stock plans require the person to hold the shares for a minimum of 1 year after vesting so the employee goes at risk relative to the tax already paid. So, not entirely free. Furthermore, the stock options that Squarer just received at worth $0 as the stock is currently trading under the strike price. The quoted Black-sholes value of the options is irrelevant when one can't trade the options as they are privately issued. At end of the day, for Squarer to make serious money, he has a huge incentive to have the stock go up a lot. Don't you want the CEO to have his incentives aligned with all shareholders, on a leveraged basis with his option holdings?
Squarer, or anybody else, isn't in this for the salary of $1 MM or so..... They are in it to score big......like the rest of us. Long 400,000 shares......
Maybe a $1 of downside and perhaps upside to $15-20. NEMO trial results likely this week. Columbus trial results in 1H 2016. The big prize will be colorectal where we have a chance to be first to market with a large commercial opportunity - results sometime in 2016 and then moves into 2017. The AZN trial for non-malignant tumors in children and adolescents could get accelerated approval by FDA given incredible efficacy where ARRY has a double-digit royalty arrangement. All this while sitting on over $200 MM of cash and continued trial support by Novartis on over 30 programs. Further milestone payments from our French partner in the future.
Long and strong into year-end!
STOP the carping about the CEO controlling the release of NEMO data. ARRY has nothing to do with the analysis of the trial data or the timing of the release of the Top Line NEMO results. All of the comments on this board about the CEO are just not helpful or additive to the investment discussion. This CEO actually negotiated a deal with Novartis last year that gave us control of two compounds with multiple phase 3 opportunities, gave us over $80 MM of cash upfront, eliminated over $20 MM of liabilities and is Novartis is now funding over 30 studies on our behalf. We are now sitting on over $200 MM of cash and on the lip of the cup of multiple commercial opportunities.
NRAS melanoma (NEMO) is only 20% of the melanoma market. Good news is we have a better drug and become standard of care. BRAF melanoma is 60% of the market but we will be 3rd to market. However, we will have better tolerability.
The real prize in terms of revenue, blockbuster potential, is BRAF colorectal and initial results were fantastic. This going to be a 2-3 year story and we have just started. Along the way, we have some other opportunities in benign tumors in kids and adolescents with AZN as well as small cell lung cancer and perhaps ovarian.
At 500,000 shares and plan to go higher.
Investing dude is about the future, not the past. If you want to look backward go ahead but you will be destined to commit the same mistakes. All stocks discount the future. In this regard, I see ARRY trading at about $2-3 B market cap. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock at this level in 2016. I'm telling you BRAF colorectal could be a $1 B in sales opportunity. We would be first to market, establishing the standard of care, with no immunotherapy options. We will get another read on this program in 2016 and it could be huge.
I totally agree. We should all band together and put these idiots who constantly bash the CEO on ignore. I rather we share robust information concerning fundamentals and prospects for company's molecules.
This is very common. The data is made available for peer review and once vetted it is then typically presented in a paper or a conference. The hospital supporting the review is Massachusetts General Hospital, arguably one of the best in the world.
Don't confuse the stock price for the company's fundamental prospects. What we are watching is year-end positioning and tax loss selling. This will all abate in the next day or two and the stock should drift upward without the selling pressure.