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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

bosox_pats 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 12, 2014 7:03 AM Member since: Nov 22, 2010
  • Reply to

    APL Rally

    by jberns2421 Sep 11, 2014 4:41 PM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Sep 12, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    Stifel reiterated it's buy recommendation and raised it's price target from $36 to $40. Anything that is good for APL and ARP is even better for ATLS given the IDR leverage.

  • For ARP to meet the low end of 2014 distribution guidance of $2.40, the company would have to pay $0.2080 per month for the next 5 months. If they were to step it up gradually over the next 5 months, probably means the December distribution would be closer to $0.22 to meet the $2.40 full year target. This would put the company in an odd spot as $0.22 would be annualized at $2.64 for 2015.

    ARP and it's officers are in the thick of fund-raising, especially post Labor Day. ARP is planning to raise over $200 MM this year for the syndicate program, up from $150 MM last year. Simultaneously, they are raising funds for Atlas Growth Partners (AGP). The last Form D filed August 7th shows they have raised $50 MM of the $500 MM target. AGP benefits ATLS as they hold 80% of the GP. (It will be interesting to see who obtained the other 20% of the GP - I suspect the Cohen's personally or perhaps they allocated to the fund raising activities as an added incentive).

    ARP trades horribly - this is the price of weak distribution coverage. It's also the price of anticipated dilution related to acquisitions. Cohen took acquisitions off the table in last call. I suspect the company is on a mission to build coverage to 1.1X while also slowly raising the distribution. This should be a good quarter as they will book a lot of fees associated with the syndicate program. I look forward to the last 4 months of the trading year for ARP/ATLS......

  • Reply to

    I prefer ARP..for consolidation and dividend

    by chartguy123 Aug 19, 2014 8:57 AM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Aug 20, 2014 7:22 AM Flag

    Cohen was on CNBC yesterday and he stated that Atlas has no interest in consolidating it's GP/MLP structure anytime soon. This is very good news for ATLS as we are just at the beginning of the benefits related to ATLS GP IDRs in both APL and ARP as we are entering the high splits.

  • Reply to

    Company Loosing Money

    by mollie_y Aug 12, 2014 1:36 AM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Aug 12, 2014 6:00 AM Flag

    There are very few shorts against MLPs. The borrow rates are through the roof and there are few shares to borrow. You obviously don't know much about MLPs. It's not earnings that drive MLPs but rather distributable cash flow - DCF.

  • Reply to

    cramer

    by bobbyjopro Aug 11, 2014 6:36 PM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Aug 11, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    The better play is ATLS not ARP, although I own both. I own twice as much ATLS relative to ARP. I own ATLS for the growth and ARP for the yield. A takeover of ATLS would not be good at this stage of the company's development. ATLS is just entering the high IDR splits for ARP and APL. As we progress through the IDR splits, you get significant distribution growth in the GP ATLS. Once APL trades to a 5% yield, ARP to an 8% and ATLS to the low 3's, then we can start talking about takeovers as then we would truly receive a premium. We are going to see the distribution of ATLS go from over $2 this year to $5 over the next 4-5 years. This could be a $80-100 stock from here......

  • Reply to

    Atlas Growth Partners

    by bosox_pats Aug 8, 2014 9:44 AM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Aug 8, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    They have filed a series of schedule D's over last couple years. They have gone from $0 to $50 MM. It ames much longer to go from $0 to $50 MM than $50 to $500 MM based on my experience. You have to create the sense that the train is leaving the station......

  • bosox_pats by bosox_pats Aug 8, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Yesterday, Atlas Growth Partners filed a new scheduled D. Fund raising goal is $500 MM. The new filing indicated they have raised another $30 MM since the end of May to reach $50 MM. They are now reaching critical mass in fund raising activity - this could be a big positive surprise........

  • bosox_pats bosox_pats Aug 5, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    Some of the Wall Street analysts who were on the call who asked questions have issued some post conference call comments. Most said the results for the quarter were in line with expectations with execution risk still in S. Texas. They also said APL on a better path than the last 3 quarters.

  • Reply to

    Trouble with Q2?

    by bigbear.2010 Aug 5, 2014 3:24 PM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Aug 5, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    The Alerian index was down 1.5% today - the whole MLP sector traded off. ARP traded off in line with the market - nothing company specific.

  • bosox_pats by bosox_pats Jul 24, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    After 3Q's of flat distributions, ATLS increased from $0.46 to $0.49 today quarterly. Importantly, APL increased by $0.01 to $0.63 while keeping coverage at 1.1X. ARP only increased by $0.0033 to $0.1966 monthly but I suspect coverage improved meaningfully - very important. Looking forward to conference calls. We are setting up for a nickel increase in 3Q at ATLS to $0.54...... Slap a 4% yield on the annualized distribution and we are back in the 50's. Long and strong!

  • Reply to

    APL increases dist

    by chegerar Jul 23, 2014 6:05 PM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Jul 24, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    A $0.01 increase at APL translates into $0.02 for Atlas. Let's hope for a $0.2034 June monthly from ARP and that will also translate into $0.02 additional for ATLS. Together, ATLS could increase by $0.04 to $0.50 quarterly. Slap a 4% yield on the annualized rate and you get $50 unit price right now......

  • Reply to

    Cooperman - Delivering Alpha

    by bosox_pats Jul 16, 2014 5:55 PM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Jul 17, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    Bigearl,

    You and I are cut out of the same ATLS cloth.

    Best,

  • Reply to

    Cooperman - Delivering Alpha

    by bosox_pats Jul 16, 2014 5:55 PM
    bosox_pats bosox_pats Jul 17, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    I love the Cooperman quip! Good to see your still in the name BigEarl - haven't seen you in awhile.

  • Leon Cooperman provided his top 12 picks for next 12 months. Atlas was a prominent pick and he stated the stock has 50% upside from here. I think he is on the low side but my view is probably longer than his view. Looking forward to the 2Q distribution announcement for ATLS and hoping for a bump in the June monthly distribution for ARP. Looking for ATLS to increase to $0.48 - $0.50 from $0.46 sequentially.

  • Acquisition closed on the 30th, backdated to April 1st for cash flow coverage of new shares issued. Pro forma for the bad weather, 1Q coverage of the distribution was only 1.0X, actual was 0.92X. I think they had a really good production 2Q. As I add all this up, my guess is the company is building coverage of the distribution this quarter to something between 1.10 - 1.20X, bringing first half coverage to around 1.0 - 1.05X. This will set us up for actual distribution increases in 2H. They may even give us a little bump in the monthly for June. Good coverage combined with bumps to annualized rate of $2.50 gets us a sub 10% yield - upside to $26 - 28 by year-end. ATLS the GP is still a better total return play longer term.

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