The techs I have are just ones that seem like good values to me. Mostly in the semi eqt area. KLIC, TER, RTEC, and just got some MTSN the other day. Also have some CALX and NVDA. Not screaming buys but seem like good value. Most probably are buyout candidates, but I don't count on any of my stocks getting bought out.
No doubt the merger of two of the giants in the power semi business will lead to one awesome merged company, but I still think what they paid is insane.
Can't believe what this thing is fetching, but more power to you. Anyway, I don't regret missing out because my calculations would not in a million years lead me to believe this thing would go up to this level.
Plus, I made a killing on IRF once myself. Bought at 4 9/16 (yes, back in the fraction days) and sold at around 13. Kicked myself when it went on up to 30 or 40 after I sold, but what the heck, I still made out well.
It seems to me Infineon is paying insanely too much for IRF. But even though I am not an IRF shareholder, this deal makes me excited. Because I own stocks of other small to middling players in the semi business, which I believe are at good valuations. But my hope that they might get bought out at a big premium is tempered by my concern that they would be viewed as too expensive at such a valuation. Well, if someone's going to pay this much for IRF, then someone out there can certainly afford to pay the share price I hope to get on my other tech stocks.
Can't believe this thing is near 20. I consider it a borderline buy at 5 bucks. Those who rode it up, congratulations, but I still believe there is no rational basis for that rise, so it seems to me there is a risk it will drop back to something more in line with fair value which I believe is around 5.
MTSN seemed too pricey to me around 3, but now it looks interesting. I listened to the conf call and the business prospects over the coming quarters look really good. These guys sound like pretty smart dudes to me.
Yahoo's tabulation of analyst predictions of revenue growth appear consistent with the very bullish business outlook.
Rather small company but the business looks to be doing well and they have a stellar balance sheet.
It sounds like the products these guys do are more in the "old fashioned" segment of electronics- components that perform fairly simple function as opposed to massively integrated circuits.
Nevertheless, there seems to be an ongoing market for this stuff.
Seems to me to be a low-risk (because of the balance sheet) value tech stock. I'm in.
I was just looking for good values in the semi eqt business, without regard to what stage of the process their eqt is involved in.
But it is probably not a coincidence. It is probably that backend processing is generally not as visible or exciting a business to the investment community as front end. Also, the giants of semi eqt, like AMAT & LRCX, I believe are predominately front end. Those seem fairly expensive to me; probably because their large size makes them more attractive to a broader investor community.
OCLR looked depressing enough to me to stay out, but the things you point out make the picture all the more grim.
I think this thing is headed for doom. Still, I would never short a stock, in a case like this because there is always a chance they get a buyout on the cheap, in which the final stock price could wind up a little higher than it is right now.
It occurred to me that the three stocks I own (KLIC, TER, and RTEC) in the semi eqt sector that appear to me to be good solid companies with great balance sheets and good value stock price all happen to make equipment for the back end of semiconductor processing. KLIC and TER pretty much totally so, while RTEC does both front end and backend but the backend having grown to about half of their business.
That makes me all the more upbeat, because it appears that backend will be the higher growth segment of processing compared to front end as increasing challenges of Moore's law lead to more focus on backend technology to continue the evolution of integrated circuits.
The US taxes foreign income, but only if it is transferred from the foreign country to the US. If a US company wants to do a buyback, the money has to reside in the US, in other words, if it is located in a foreign country it has to be repatriated to the US and then it is subject to US corporate income tax.
However, I'm not sure what the rules are for a foreign company, since someone pointed out that Kulicke is based in Singapore.
Perhaps it still is required to transfer the money to the US and pay US corporate income tax if it wishes to do a buyback since it is listed on a US stock exchange?
One thing you should consider. When a company gets shaky, customers are liable to get nervous. This can lead to a death spiral. Company drops, customers lose confidence, stop buying product, that makes the company drop further, and the cycle continues until the company is dead.
By the way, I could never figure out what the heck is this 4k expression? Video that is double the resolution in each direction as HD is about 2k pixels x 2k pixels. It seems like it thus ought to be called 4 meg. Or maybe Just "4 video". But 4k? Doesn't make sense to me.
Since cable and broadcast isn't even 1080p yet, I guess the 4k is for the gamers market?
It gives me a bit of pause that the market promise of high speed data technology hinges quite a bit a bunch of adolescent morons playing video games, but hey a market's a market.
The derelicts of the optical business like NPTN and OCLR are tanking lately. Wonder whether the products of any of these dogs are adjacent enough to INFN's product line that there would be any synergy in buying one of these companies. But I guess the bottom line is that so long as INFN has leading-edge products they are developing, they need to keep their eye on the ball.
Can't wait till they intro their metro product. I guess one would assume it would be called something like ATN-X?
You make a good point. I haven't followed OCLR much, but it does seem to me that their one main hope may be if they can get bought out by the Chinese. Their dirt cheap product prices may be a negative factor to the company as a western for-profit entity, but the Chinese may just want to buy them to "pick their brains" and have optical technology available to their data and comm industries that would take years to develop if they tried to do it themselves.
Little optical hardware companies like NPTN and OCLR can't lose money forever. Sooner or later they have got to go belly up, or else get bought up for pennies on the dollar as investors in those stocks resign themselves to the fact that all they are going to ever salvage is a few cents for every dollar they invested in the stocks.
Not that I am advocating OPLK buy those companies. If the main "asset" you acquire is just a bunch of red ink, then it's not a good deal.
Noticed NPTN and OCLR tanking recently. Someone on OCLR board said all these small opticals should merge. One he mentioned was OPLK. Of all of those this is the one that looks to me most likely to be a good investment. Strong balance sheet, good projected growth rate.
If some of the little optical hardware companies go belly up, that ought to help gross margins, right?
It is insane for high tech products to sell at 10-20% gross margins! High tech products ought to garner at least 40% gross margins.