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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

bot_feeder 114 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Sep 13, 1999
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  • http://seekingalpha.com/article/2086813-oclaro-overdelivers-on-its-promises-as-turnaround-continues-more-upside-ahead

  • Reply to

    roadkill season

    by bot_feeder May 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 7, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    One sad thing is that when this big of a percentage drop occurs as a response to quarterly results, usually the ambulance chasers are soon to follow.

  • bot_feeder by bot_feeder May 7, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    I call the reporting seasons that come roughly a month after each calendar quarter "roadkill season". Of course, some companies report good results and their stocks rise, and some quarters there is not a lot of drama. I don't recall a lot of big ups or downs as companies reported the 4th calendar quarter of 2013.

    But by golly, OCLR this quarter really gave some good backup for my use of the term "roadkill season".

    Even though I'm a bottom feeder, I am still hesitant to buy even after the huge drop. They may have an awesome balance sheet, but they are losing money hand over fist. Are they going to turn it around or are they headed for total oblivion? I don't know enough to judge, and my philosophy is "when in doubt, stay out".

  • bot_feeder by bot_feeder May 6, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    I think I invested briefly in RTEC a couple years ago but don't know the company all that well. One thing I wanted to get a better handle on is the convertible debt.

    To find the details you have to go to the 2011 annual report. I read through the details. I can't say I completely understand it but I think I understand it well enough to reach some conclusions. First of all it is 60 mil and comes due in mid 2016. Secondly, they spent close to 15 mil on a hedge to mitigate dilution effects.

    It is the terms of the anti-dilution instrument that I didn't completely grasp, I would have to read it a few more times I think before I fully digested it. But it appears to me that this thing essentially wipes out any dilutional effect of conversion of that debt to shares.

    So I believe it is a good approximation to just treat the convertible debt as being ordinary debt. In other words, I believe dilution is a complete non issue.

    So when you look at what this company is valued at in terms of enterprise value, I believe you can assume there is no potential dilution in there.

    Now whether the debt instrument was smart is another question. They got a net 50 mil on a 60 mil debt issue, and then they spend almost 15 mil for dilution mitigation. So if I understand it correctly they got about a net 35 mil of cash for the issuance of 60 mil of debt.

    But that's all past history. Right now you have got a company whose stock is down a bit because of weak business performance. The company has a balance sheet built like a tank. I can't say I know their business very well, but in their conference call the case they make sounds pretty good to me. Front end weak, but back end an area of big potential growth in coming years, and they appear to have several product lines that are very competitive in that market.

  • bot_feeder by bot_feeder May 6, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    I think I invested briefly in RTEC a couple years ago but don't know the company all that well. One thing I wanted to get a better handle on is the convertible debt.

    To find the details you have to go to the 2011 annual report. I read through the details. I can't say I completely understand it but I think I understand it well enough to reach some conclusions. First of all it is 60 mil and comes due in mid 2016. Secondly, they spent close to 15 mil on a hedge to mitigate dilution effects.

    It is the terms of the anti-dilution instrument that I didn't completely grasp, I would have to read it a few more times I think before I fully digested it. But it appears to me that this thing essentially wipes out any dilutional effect of conversion of that debt to shares.

    So I believe it is a good approximation to just treat the convertible debt as being ordinary debt. In other words, I believe dilution is a complete non issue.

    So when you look at what this company is valued at in terms of enterprise value, I believe you can assume there is no potential dilution in there.

    Now whether the debt instrument was smart is another question. They got a net 50 mil on a 60 mil debt issue, and then they spend almost 15 mil for dilution mitigation. So if I understand it correctly they got about a net 35 mil of cash for the issuance of 60 mil of debt.

    But that's all past history. Right now you have got a company whose stock is down a bit because of weak business performance. The company has a balance sheet built like a tank. I can't say I know their business very well, but in their conference call the case they make sounds pretty good to me. Front end weak, but back end an area of big potential growth in coming years, and they appear to have several product lines that are very competitive in that market.

  • bot_feeder by bot_feeder May 6, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    I think I invested briefly in RTEC a couple years ago but don't know the company all that well. One thing I wanted to get a better handle on is the convertible debt.

    To find the details you have to go to the 2011 annual report. I read through the details. I can't say I completely understand it but I think I understand it well enough to reach some conclusions. First of all it is 60 mil and comes due in mid 2016. Secondly, they spent close to 15 mil on a hedge to mitigate dilution effects.

    It is the terms of the anti-dilution instrument that I didn't completely grasp, I would have to read it a few more times I think before I fully digested it. But it appears to me that this thing essentially wipes out any dilutional effect of conversion of that debt to shares.

    So I believe it is a good approximation to just treat the convertible debt as being ordinary debt. In other words, I believe dilution is a complete non issue.

    So when you look at what this company is valued at in terms of enterprise value, I believe you can assume there is no potential dilution in there.

    Now whether the debt instrument was smart is another question. They got a net 50 mil on a 60 mil debt issue, and then they spend almost 15 mil for dilution mitigation. So if I understand it correctly they got about a net 35 mil of cash for the issuance of 60 mil of debt.

    But that's all past history. Right now you have got a company whose stock is down a bit because of weak business performance. The company has a balance sheet built like a tank. I can't say I know their business very well, but in their conference call the case they make sounds pretty good to me. Front end weak, but back end an area of big potential growth in coming years, and they appear to have several product lines that are very competitive in that market.

  • Reply to

    Bought a few more

    by sophia.leghorn May 2, 2014 3:56 PM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 5, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    If you use enterprise value rather than market cap as the metric for company valuation, it is actually an excellent value stock.

  • Reply to

    Advanced Packaging

    by cben15606 May 5, 2014 9:25 AM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 5, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Front end semiconductor evolution seems to be reaching old age. Semiconductor companies are vacillating on spending big on next generation device shrinks and bigger wafers. It appears we are reaching the point where the costs are skyrocketing and benefits are dwindling. There is an increasing feeling that the most fruitful avenue for continuing Moore's law is through using current generation silicon in conjunction with new generation packaging. If so, KLIC is a company at the right place at the right time. I also recently bought some RTEC when it slumped on disappointing quarterly. RTEC looks to me to have an impressive portfolio of products applicable to advanced packaging.

  • Reply to

    Rain

    by storagelh Apr 30, 2014 4:08 PM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 3, 2014 11:08 PM Flag

    Where do you live, Venus?

  • Reply to

    rbcn

    by bot_feeder May 2, 2014 9:57 AM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 2, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    I should add to that "unless you simply value it at zero".

  • bot_feeder by bot_feeder May 2, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    I usually judge tech stock value mainly based on enterprise value to gross profit. But Yahoo shows these guys having negative gross profit so how the heck can you come up with a number for what this stock should be worth?

  • Reply to

    HLIT making me hugee money

    by tandi_yorgey318 May 1, 2014 9:10 AM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 1, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    It's not hugee money it's huge monee.

  • Reply to

    jdsu

    by bot_feeder May 1, 2014 3:14 PM
    bot_feeder bot_feeder May 1, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    By the way: off topic. I was getting these obnoxious Smarter Shopper ads on my Chrome browser that were driving me crazy. I googled around to find some advice and one guy said he got the problem by installing the Facebook Dislike button on his Chrome. I set up the Dislike button too. I disabled it, and now those horrible ads are gone. Those virus guys have a lot of nerve. Some day some guy who just lost his job browsing on his computer is going to blow his stack, find out who's responsible for those ads, and hunt the culprit down.

  • bot_feeder by bot_feeder May 1, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    I made a few bucks on JDSU shares I got at $2.30 and sold at 4 or 5. Shoud have hung on longer. Now I am wondering whether to buy some again. Listened to their conf call. The guy could use some public speaking training. But what I care about is the business, not the oratory. Problem is, there are too many acronyms of stuff I am not familiar with, you have to know the lingo in order to glean much out of the conf call. I think that is too much homework for me, so I think I'll try to find some articles on Motley Fool or Seeking Alpha or something and try to get some second hand opinions that may help me understand this business a little more. (When the stock was $2.30, you didn't need to understand the company to know it was a screaming buy)

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