Wow if I said that that's irrational exuberance. Right now at a enterprise value to gross profits ratio of about 2, if the business does really well they could perhaps get that up to 5x or so. By the business doing well I am thinking 10% per year revenue growth and a decent profit margin. So a couple years down the road if they do well the stock valuation may bump up perhaps to 2.5x of its current level and a couple of years of 10% annual growth would bump that up a bit more to perhaps 3.0x of the current valuation.
So 3x seems plausible, 5x-10x is probably unreasonable unless they come up with a killer new product.
In other words the 2.5x would be an adjustment of the company to a more optimistic perception of the company's worth, and the additional kicker would be due to growth.
Wow, investors sure confused what to think of UTEK right now. Up as high as the upper 17s upon the quarterly news and now actually down for the day at 15.9x.
KLIC is so dirt cheap right now, they had better do some aggressive buying back of shares.
I was thinking of buying some more shares. But why should I. KLIC should do the buying for me. That's what a company with a mountain of cash and a dirt cheap stock price ought to be doing.
If KLIC buys and drives the price up then I do make money on the shares I already have. Their purchases are essentially equivalent to me buying more stock, because as they shrink the shares outstanding, each existing share is a bigger piece of the company.
A few years ago, Western Digital was around $30 per share. There were some major temporary turbulence in the disk drive market due to some factories in Asia damaged by storms. But also, magnetic disks were considered outdated technology in light of solid state storage.
Well, the industry recovered from the damaged factories, and people decided, hey, maybe magnetic disks still have a place in today's electronics world.
I sold the stock around 50, as usual, I was way early and should have hung on until 100.
There may be some parallels with KLIC. Everyone figures wirebonding is passe, so nobody likes KLIC. Well, wirebonders are still a cash cow business, are liable to be a big market in electronics for some time to come, and meanwhile KLIC is involved in some of the advanced packaging technologies as well.
I changed my mind and did buy some more today. Just too frigging cheap.
Agree. I expect those who own this stock like I do invest in it as a struggling electronics firm with good promise of turning the corner and seeing a much higher stock price down the road. I don't want a dividend from a company that is struggling to build a strong future. Control your spending carefully but what you do spend, focus on new products. I don't expect any dividend.
Yes it seems dirt cheap. It has been on such a relentless downward spiral I gave up on EXFO. I just figure maybe somebody knows something I don't know. Otherwise, the stock ought to be quite a bit higher, even as an undervalued small tech company.
I don't understand why MTSN has dropped so precipitously. I bought some more today.
Only main weak area I can see is that they don't have a big pile of cash like many of the companies in the semi eqt business. So they are not necessarily in a position to withstand a major downturn in the industry.
I don't think such a downturn is very likely, though.
They ought to be an attractive buyout candidate with the stock so depressed right now.
I tried to buy some at 3.10 but it didn't execute. I suspect it will be up quite a bit tomorrow since the quarterly results were EXCELLENT and the business outlook is EXCELLENT.
No wonder my order didn't execute, I didn't select "after hours". Did it again and bought 2k shares at 3.15. May sound a little pricey but I am very bullish on this company right now and it is possible it will be up quite a bit upon opening tomorrow morning.
To me, if they underpromise on earnings, all the better. The earnings will be what they will be regardless of what they project they will be. When Purion is in high volume production a few years down the road, I believe Axcelis will be making money hand over fist.
As to cash. A lot of the companies in the semi eqt business have cash equal to 20-30% of their market cap if not more. I think that is a good idea considering how cyclical this industry is. Axcelis has net cash on the balance sheet, but not a ton of it, I believe something like 30 million dollars. I think they should just bank their cash for the forseeable future. If they had a mountain of cash, buybacks might be appropriate, but they don't have a mountain of cash. And I'm not sure there are acquisitions that would be worthwhile for them to consider. They have a business focused very much on one specific type of product, and the business prospects for those products over the next few years are awesome.
I bought a little more. I wish I understood this company better, but the numbers do suggest it is dirt cheap, and if they have some decent quarters the stock ought to be quite a bit higher.
As a fundamentalist, I expect the stock to be way higher in a few years based on the outstanding business performance I expect them to be able to achieve. But some of that upside could happen in the short term if more investors take a look and reach the same conclusion and bid the stock up in anticipation of that future business performance.