Don't sweat the small stuff. A good investment is a stock that has strong prospects to double or triple over the next several years. A few percent difference in what you buy it at is not going to be a big deal.
I bought a bunch today, some slightly above 23 and some slightly below.
The proof of the pudding will be whether this thing a few years from now is in the 70-80 range or in the 10-15 range. Whether I bought at 22 or 23 won't make that much difference.
From the conference call, the UPL mgt seems pretty smart to me. Now I realize that one key reason the company is doing ok lately is that rockies gas happens to be in a strong market whereas it was in the dumpster a few years ago. However, besides some good luck I do believe these guys are pretty good at their business. And having one of the lowest production costs in the business doesn't hurt.
Yeah, this thing is depressed enough it is looking kind of attractive to this bottom feeder.
Now it's 8:08 eastern. Conf call is supposed to be available at Rudolph web site. But you click on it and it is STILL the 1st quarter conference call.
Good grief, with the internet around this long, how hard can it be to load a freaking conference call onto a web site?
I bit the bullet and just called up the number for the archived conference call and listened to it on the phone.
Overall I'm pretty happy with the direction they are going. A buyback authorized for 3 million shares should allow them to keep the stock from dropping much in any market downturn.
I'm glad I'm out. ACLS has what appear to be a set of outstanding products. However, they are a small player in semiconductor fabrication equipment and customers are liable to be skittish about buying from them no matter how good their products are. And it bothers me that Intel is not a customer.
One thing I have learned about tech companies is that just because a company has good products does not mean it is going to be a winner in the market.
Sure, the loss leader concept makes sense in principle. But the strategy has to be on a case by case basis. If ALU was willing to dump old generation product for a low enough price, it would be undignified for INFN to offer to sell leading-edge stuff as if it were old junk like ALU's stuff. You can't act so desperate for market share that you are willing to drop your pants.
Yeah, I'm skeptical in general. I probably wouldn't get in at any price. It seems to me they have such a major overhaul they need to make if they want to align the company to more promising markets that I am not optimistic about their future.
It is very common for companies to have a large balance of net cash representing an even bigger cash balance offset by a modest amount of debt.
The thing is, a company stumbles, then customers get jittery about buying from them, because they wonder whether the company will even be around a couple years down the road, that results in sales declines, company loses money, which exacerbates the loss of confidence on the part of customers, and the inevitable outcome is death of the company. My only question is, does Rubicon get bought out on the cheap by some other company, and if so, at what price?
JNPR looks like a borderline buy to me. In terms of financial metrics, it looks very similar to me to Cisco, in all sorts of respects. Similar projected PE ratio, similar enterprise value to market cap ratio. And, similar projected growth rate of about 4-5%.
If we have a general market downturn and JNPR dropped a bit, I would probably buy some. Right now this thing looks to me like a hold. Since I don't own it, I will "hold" none but keep an eye on it.
I would be interested in people's opinions of JNPR versus CSCO as an investment. On the surface, they look very similar to me.