EXFO was mentioned along with some other companies in fiber optic comm as potential buyout candidate. I would have thought that would have given it a slight "Barrons effect" boost today. Instead, down 2%.
Now a company is only going to get a big boost if there's a whole (and favorable) article on it in Barrons. Still, the mere mention of a stock ought to still be good for a percent or two pop.
Analyst downgrade today. Stock down. Should be the other way around. Analysts are contrary indicators.
Because Mattson seems way too expensive. Enterprise value to gross profits ratio about 8 or 9 or so. The more bargain tech companies are around the 2-3 range. More prestigious techs are maybe 5 or 6. 8-9 seems way too high. Projected revenue growth is 8%, which is not bad, but doesn't justify the nosebleed valuation of this stock.
Now maybe I am too tough on MTSN. I see that their gross profits as shown on Yahoo are only about 20% of revenue. More typical in this business is 40-50%. And since their forward looking PE is about 11, I would have to think that in order to achieve that PE that their gross profits will have to be a lot higher than they are now.
So let us say their gross profits doubled. Then their enterprise value to gross profits ratio would be more like 4-5 instead of 8-9. Now I still think that is a bit toppy, but not way undervalued. I do think MTSN is a good buy at 2 dollars per share, but not at 4.
The Nas is down today almost 2% and semi eqt stocks are down about double that. MTSN is down somewhat more than that because it is somewhat more overvalued than the typical stock in this business.
The stock was 2 bucks a year or so ago, now it is 3.75. Excellent stock performance. Just because it's a good company doesn't mean it deserved a 150% increase up to 5 bucks a share. I think it's still a bit toppy so I don't own any, but I will keep watching in case it reaches what looks to me like an attractive price at some point.
That's actually pretty darn good because the only thing analysts are good for is consistently being wrong, and this guy appears to be one of the best in the biz at that particular skill.
By my criteria, SONS is now a value stock. What makes me hesitant to buy some is that I really don't know anything about this business and thus I don't know whether SONS has products that are competitive, or if they are going to see their business shrivel up in the face of stronger competitors. If their products do have some staying power in the marketplace, then this is indeed a good stock buy right now.
I would have liked to discuss this on ACLS message board except their ain't one. I imagine this is minor news for AMAT shareholders since implanters are just one small part of its business, but wondering what AMAT shareholders think. I am betting that ACLS is going to wrest a good chunk of market share from AMAT in the medium and high current implanter business with its new line of products.
I wish it would go back to 9 so I could have a do-over and own this stock this time around.