If KLIC got a buyout offer for something like $15-16 per share, would shareholders go for that?
I probably would. If this company were better managed it seems to me the stock might be able to get to $25-30. But it isn't.
I got most of mine back in the previous downturn at around 8-9 per share, then stupidly bought a bit more around 16 thinking it was still dirt cheap, then bought some more in the 9s in the recent slump, then trimmed a little down at 11.6x yesterday.
I am a believer in bird in the hand. Take a 50% gain in the short term even if you think there might be a couple hundred percent gain potential in the longer term.
Who would want KLIC? Well, it seems to me, someone who has some products in the advance packaging assembly space who wants to take strategic actions to become the dominant player in that market might find KLIC appealing. Milk the cash cow as well as become the incumbent vendor for the "who's who" of the semiconductor assembly business.
Only problem is, advanced packaging vendors are probably no way financially in a position to make a buyout bid for KLIC.
What about the big semi eqt vendors, AMAT and LRCX. Maybe one of them. Backend is the faster growing of the semi eqt areas so getting a lot bigger footprint in that area ought to be quite appealing to those companies. Buying the old guard cash cow KLIC along with some smaller companies making inroads into backend eqt (e.g. perhaps RTEC) would be strong moves to become a dominant force in backend.
Depends how much you have. I'd buy more but I already have something like 8% of my retirement account in ACLS stock.
Would be nice to see this stock mosey on up to 3 once again in the short term. Long term (2-3 years) I'm still looking to sell at around $10.
Seems like the rationale for oil stocks is: "A whole industry can't go bankrupt, can it". And yeah it seems like that is a rather farfetched prospect. But then don't forget, the airline industry used to go completely bankrupt time after time. Doesn't mean people don't stop flying planes. What it meant was that all the airline companies went bankrupt, shareholders got jack squat, the companies restructured and sold new stock, and the planes kept flying.
Could be the same thing is going to happen for the oil industry.
The business is lackluster to say the least, but the stock got pulverized so badly already that people realize that bidding it down any further makes no sense.
Well, the nice thing about stock predictions is that (assuming they are specific enough, which yours is) they can be proven right or wrong.
I always wish there were some sort of established standards for stock predictions. Guys like Peter Schiff constantly feel the dollar will go down the toilet. Well, probably it will at some point, but does that make him right, after all, in all the years waiting for that downturn his investors have lost money up the yin yang.
But yours is a good solid prediction. Stock will be up 6 months from now. Myself, i'd be more wussy and predict the stock will be way up 2 years from now.
You guys come across as credible to me and it gives me some doubt as to whether I am on the right track. But at this point, I still believe in ACLS based on the rationale that the prospect of it becoming a "co-equal" to AMAT in the implanter market fueled by its Purion product line still makes it an excellent prospect of being a great stock investment irrespective of the current downturn.
Recent seeking alpha article very bullish on KLIC. Mirrors my views. Heartening to see someone else holds the perspective I do. The "dead" business of wirebonding is going to show 10% CAGR over the next 4 years? Awesome.
To me the big picture is, ACLS has the leading edge family of products on the market, that family gives it entry into the 85% of the implanter market it previously didn't serve, and it has gotten lots of positive customer response and initial business in that 85% of the market. And when there's an upturn in the semi eqt business cycle these guys should show some dynamite quarters.
It's got to be frustrating being in a business that alternates between scarcity and glut and you can cut your production to try to shore up prices but that doesn't mean the other guy is going to so he winds up getting the benefit of your sacrifice.