Your analysis is only appropriate if you believe you can judge a company by looking at a couple of numbers out of context without knowing anything about the company's actual business situation.
My one and only concern about ACLS was if a slow quarter translated into really ugly looking numbers, because of how granular this business is, one more or one less machine sold in a quarter alone could color the quarterly results quite a bit. Their news release the other day strongly suggests that my concern is unfounded. In the long term, the sky's the limit.
from the news release
"The other tools will ship in the second half of 2016, upon completion of a R&D program funded by two customers."
I assume this means that a couple of these customers in the specialty semi business will be working with Axcelis to customize the purion M for their particular process?
Should hold unless the quarter turns out badly. But since they gave a heads up and the quarter is a couple days from being over, we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect in the quarterly report. Going forward, it should be up up and away, unless there's a thermonuclear war or something, in which case we probably don't care too much how the stock market does, assuming there still is one.
Now, if we could just see Axcelis announce a sale of Purion L to a "major manufacturer of leading-edge logic chips", we will be hitting on all cylinders.
Seems like the downturn coincided with quite a long stretch where there weren't any news releases about new orders. Nice to see a good one show up. If I'm not mistaken, medium current is the area where they were least competitive prior to introduction of Purion, but it appears that now they are a player.
My only main concern is if they have a temporary slump in revenue due to general weakness in the semi eqt business, plus the fact that this business is kind of streaky because it involves selling a small number of high priced machines, so just a couple extra machines or a couple less machines sold in one quarter can really color the business performance on a short term basis.
If they do have a bad quarter the stock may drop further and I will buy more, even though I already have a lot.
ACLS has been hit a lot harder than most techs in the recent downturn. People probably are worried that they may have a lean quarter or two.
Expel California from the United States and make immigration from California to the US illegal.
Arkansas is a sitting duck for uncontrolled migration with its vast Caribbean shoreline.
Too damn cheap.
I have never seen a dirt cheap stock like this of a company with a balance sheet this strong turn out to be a bad investment. Who knows, maybe there's a first time, but I think the odds are on my side.
I HAVE seen a company selling close to tangible book value that was a bad investment, but it was one that was on the verge of bankruptcy, and the case against it was that there would be a lot of money lost during its liquidation and that shareholders would find that a lot of that tangible book value would have evaporated by the time the remaining carcass of the defunct company was paid out to the shareholders.
This company is not going bankrupt. At worst it may have a weak period during which it may lose a bit of money. But it is the leader in a critical part of the semiconductor business, and it will do well when that sector is doing well.
The upside potential is big.
What we ought to see now is some BOLD buyback of stock, like a couple hundred million dollars of it.
But "bold" is not a word I associate with Bruno or KLIC management in general.