Wow I would love to buy some INFN at $7. I missed the boat on the recent runup. At current price, the risk/reward is not that great. At $7 it would be awesome.
People would probably wonder, why don't I short it. It is awfully tempting but I have never shorted a stock. And there is a good rationale for that. Since bubble valuations are not based on any rational criteria, there is no way to know how far such an anomaly will go before the reality comes crashing down. For all I know, TQNT could go to 50 or 100. But in the long term it will be a lot lower than it is now.
I would be very curious to see what rationale people have as to why TQNT stock should be anywhere near as high as it is now. I just can't see what quantitative gauge would lead to that conclusion.
You got me! TQNT is worth more like $6 per share, not $5.
In my view a fair valuation for a good tech company is 4x gross profits. Yahoo key statistics shows Triquint's annual gross profits at 258 mil. 4x that is 1.032 billion. Shares outstanding are 177 mil. So market cap of 1.032 billion divided by 177 million shares is a stock value of $5.83.
Triquint's actual valuation is 15x gross profits. Nosebleed valuation. Just compare that to other tech stocks, you will see it is sky high.
Interesting all the stuff regarding the new thermocompression machines for adv packaging. I guess they ship prototypes to good legacy customers to try out and then if they like it they put in an order. And then it sounds like generally the prototypes get polished up to be production-caliber. I imagine the customers like to buy the protytypes first because they already are on the floor and their staff are comfortable with using them. Wonder if there are any discounts KLIC gives them for buying prototypes since it is sort of like buying a floor unit in a department store.
Despite his stuttering and whatnot, his comments do strike me as showing a pretty good grasp of the business and a pretty intelligent outlook on what they need to do to be a leader in the emerging technology as well as maintain their dominance in the existing technology.
Yeah, wow, I wonder if the stock is down because people are PO'd that this company is not buying up its dirt cheap shares with its massive cash pile! $100 million repurchase program and they have spent how much so far? 7 or 8 million or something.
Give the CEO some assertiveness training on clicking that frigging mouse on the online brokerage account.
What is encouraging is they are getting orders, despite being a small company. The semi industry obviously buys what meets their technical needs rather than focusing on the fact that one vendor is a huge solid semi eqt mfgr while the other is a small company specializing only in implanters.
I continue to believe that someone is going to buy up this company. The prime candidate would seem to be Lam. For a while they were probably preoccupied with integrating the acquisition of Novellus, but that should pretty much done by now.
Yahoo shows projected revenue growth at about 0, with projected earnings 90 cents.
This company appears to be a slow-growth cash cow in a cyclical industry. Kind of a paradox and I guess that could be grounds for being wary of the stock. I suppose people figure that if you are in the tech industry, since it is cyclical, you want to see revenue growth of 10-20% year or so. Trouble is, companies expected to show such growth tend to have their stocks bid up to such high prices that the great business prospects of the company may be completely baked into the stock price already, or even overbaked.
It's a bit odd, what money I have in stocks right now is in tech stocks, but when I look at which ones I have I see that nearly all my money is in companies that are involved in making equipment for the backend of semiconductor manufacturing. KLIC is my biggest, TER is second, RTEC third, and now COHU as one of my smaller holdings.
It just seems to happen to be the case that this niche of the tech sector seems to be rather unloved (maybe viewed as not high tech enough), and thus low stock prices. Also they tend to have strong balance sheets which I feel is important in a cyclical business like this.
Anyway, judging from the expectations of flat revenue growth this does not appear to be an exciting growth business, but these guys do seem to be the best of breed and the gross margins are decent.
(The weirdest gross margin situation in tech in my view is optical hardware which is really high tech stuff, but a lot of companies in that biz sport gross margins of only 10-20% since there are way too many players in that business.)