Yahoo shows these guys market cap about 600k. That has got to be wrong? Less than 1 million dollar market cap. That would be a valuation if you are at 11:59:59 of the bankruptcy doomsday clock. Must be an arithmetic error.
My mouse clicking finger is starting to twitch.
Wonder how realistic the projected PE yahoo shows of about 6 for UPL is?
Guess I'll get on their web site and see when the latest presentation was made. I am curious if their costs are so low they can be profitable even in the face of sustained low prices and hedges gradually fading out.
Looked at their numbers a little closer. First of all Yahoo shows their enterprise value something like 260-270 mil but it looks to me more like 240 mil. Yahoo sometimes gets those wrong, although in this case the apparent discrepancy is fairly modest.
And they appear to run about 50% gross margins. And the projected revenue next year that Yahoo shows is over 200 mil.
So if they make revenue of 200 mil at 50% gross margin then their annual gross profits will be 100 mil.
And that means their enterprise to projected gross profits ratio is about 2.5. And that's not bad at all. I consider an EV/GP ratio on a tech company of 1 to be dirt cheap, 2 to be cheap, and 3 to be a decent value if it is a company with decent growth prospects. So 2.5 is not bad.
And in today's volatile markets I prefer tech stocks that have very good balance sheets. And with half or so of their market cap in cash or cash equivalents, these guys certainly have a strong balance sheet.
I will kind of be hoping the stock goes lower so I can buy more shares cheap. I would definitely scarf some more down if this dips to 15.
When I used to own/follow DVN it held a very small amount of debt compared to most oil/gas companies. I see now they have about 9 billion net debt with a market cap of 22 billion. Now that is not as heavy of debt as some oil and gas co's but it is a lot more than they used to carry. What is that all about? I presume they got aggressive in either buying up new properties or in developing properties they already had, perhaps largely targeted at trying to make liquids a larger percentage of their production?
Anyway, that makes DVN not quite as attractive to me as an investment as it once was.
Yes, it looks like a pretty good value, but I'm not sure I'm quite ready to pull the trigger. Oil/gas business is obviously a treacherous one right now. There could be a final blowdown before some weak companies go belly up and the business starts a gradual recovery.
UTEK looks like a decent value. I like their position in the backend processing business. I'll probably hold out and see if there is a sector-wide downturn in techs where I might be able to snap some up for $15 or so, but it does seem like a decent buy at the current price.
Sure CHK has had a little softness, but it needs to drop a whole lot more before it is a good enough value for me to dive in.
CHK and UPL are the ones I'm most interested in. I owned both of them off and on, lately I have been out of petro stocks thank god.
Now they are getting pretty cheap. Yes I like UPL as a low cost producer of NG that serves the west coast market which is stronger than the east now. Quite a contrast from a few years back when rocky mountain gas sold at a steep discount to east coast gas prices because there wasn't much pipeline capacity to ship it to market so it was just kind of sitting there without an affordable way to get it to market.
I haven't looked at CHK much lately but what always seemed appealing to me was their massive holdings of developable oil and gas properties. They've done some deals but I would imagine they still have most of their property. And that was pretty good getting over 5 billion dollars for some Marcellus property which is pretty junky these days because of the glut of natural gas in the east coast markets.
I hope they use most of the proceeds to shed some debt. I don't like debt and I'm not the only one who has been wary of CHK because they have tended to carry so much debt.
Anyway, my decision now is whether to buy some shares of these or see if the depression in the oil/gas business gets even worse and it becomes possible to buy these even cheaper. When UPL was 24 I was thinking I would buy if it dropped to 20 and now it's 17 but I am not quite ready to pull the trigger yet.
Wow I would love to buy some INFN at $7. I missed the boat on the recent runup. At current price, the risk/reward is not that great. At $7 it would be awesome.
People would probably wonder, why don't I short it. It is awfully tempting but I have never shorted a stock. And there is a good rationale for that. Since bubble valuations are not based on any rational criteria, there is no way to know how far such an anomaly will go before the reality comes crashing down. For all I know, TQNT could go to 50 or 100. But in the long term it will be a lot lower than it is now.
I would be very curious to see what rationale people have as to why TQNT stock should be anywhere near as high as it is now. I just can't see what quantitative gauge would lead to that conclusion.
You got me! TQNT is worth more like $6 per share, not $5.
In my view a fair valuation for a good tech company is 4x gross profits. Yahoo key statistics shows Triquint's annual gross profits at 258 mil. 4x that is 1.032 billion. Shares outstanding are 177 mil. So market cap of 1.032 billion divided by 177 million shares is a stock value of $5.83.
Triquint's actual valuation is 15x gross profits. Nosebleed valuation. Just compare that to other tech stocks, you will see it is sky high.