I always felt the one downside to the Purion-driven Axcelis would be a temporary downturn in which sales virtually dried up and they generated big losses.
Instead what we see is a strong quarter and guidance for a weak quarter where sales fall off slightly and they won't be making a profit.
That is nothing compared to what I viewed as the potential short term business risk for this company. The drop in stock price today is insane.
I don't care that this is my #1 holding and I lost a bunch on it today. The company has the best ion implanters on the market, and will make a killing when the semi eqt business enters its next up cycle.
8% doesn't strike me as big R & D spending, but if they spend it prudently it ought to be enough to stay at the leading edge of the products they build.
Yeah, seems just too darn cheap. I am amazed it has sat at around 25 all day instead of perking back up to the 28-29 level.
The gauge I rely on most for valuation is enterprise value to gross annual profits. Big well known tech hardware companies tend to have a ratio of around 5 or so. Small semiconductor equipment stocks I am heavily invested in have ratios of about 2.5-4.
FARO's is about 1.5.
The time I saw a lot of tech stocks with EV/GP ratios as low as 1 was in 2002. I heavily invested in small tech companies with strong balance sheets and EV/GP ratios of 1-2. As 2002 went on my stocks went down 40%. Over the next 2 years they went up 600%. My retirement is still pretty much reliant on the gains I made in 2003-2004.
The heck of it was, some of those I sold went on after I sold them to increase 100s of percent further!
Now I think it is a fair assumption that era was not just an overly beaten down sector getting back to fair value, but rather, getting back up to way above fair value. So maybe a tech stock at a EV/GP of 1-2 currently is only good for a double or triple over the next several years. Hey, I can live with that!
Now have bought 1000 new shares, all around 25. This downturn sure looks like a temporary blip for a company with a great business. Also I thought they only had about 100 mil net cash but I believe it is actually about 150 mil. I think this stock I s a steal right now.
Bought 400 shares recently as the price seemed cheap going into quarterly report. Well, that turned out to be a bad call.
Listened to their conf call yesterday. I get the feeling they do have a solid business and that the weak quarter was basically just temporary turbulence.
Looked like after hours the stock dipped to 27 or so and then recovered to 29 or so.
I figured, if I can get some under 30 I might get a little more.
Now I find they are at 25! Well, since my feeling was that the company still looks pretty solid to me, that looks to me like a screaming buy. So I bought 600 more shares.
Thought I posted a message last night but I guess not.
Very impressed with RTEC's performance. I own a number of semi eqt stocks and most are going through a slow period and RTEC confirms the industry is slow but they are managing to get sales and continue being profitable nevertheless.
I wish I had more RTEC stock, it probably will be up today and may be a bit late in the game to buy more but I do like RTEC and definitely will hang onto the shares I have.
My guess is that someone buys them out by the end of 2016 for $20-22 per share.
Me too. I got some in the 30s a few years back, sold in the 60s. Wished I had hung on. But the low prices were back in the days when factories were getting demolished by hurricanes in Thailand.
I don't think it's going much below what it is now, and by any objective standard it is an excellent value.
With their new product strategy they should be in a good position to grow in coming years. Wonder whether there's anyone out there in an adjacent business that might want to buy them out.
Yeah, what a crummy company.
You know, you violate one of my fundamental principles of good debating. Don't try to assert something that is so farfetched that it just makes you look like a blithering idiot.
This is what capitalism should be. Smart people making good products that you can invest in and expect a modest return on year after year.
As far as Universal Robots, the one thing that seemed a bit iffy is that there is not a lot of synergy there- as they pointed out in a previous conference, there is not a lot of product synergy between their primary business of specialized testers versus the UR product line which is the versatile general-purpose industrial cobot.
But, there is the potential to expose UR to a lot more potential customers as UR should now be able to access Teradyne's large customer base, companies that are prime potential customers for cobots.
I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the road, after growing UR a bunch, TER might spin UR back out as a standalone company.
Even a bottom feeder like myself will not touch a stock like MRVL. Accounting issues or litigation, I avoid any companies that have one of those two.
So when do I ever find a cheap stock? When the company is clean but the investment community is pessimistic about its business prospects. If I think they have beaten the stock down more than it deserves, I may buy some.
But accounting issues- avoid like the plague.
Yeah, why in the world would an accounting firm back out like this? The only possible explanation is that they know things are going to get really ugly and they don't want to be around for the mayhem.