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Falconstor Software Inc. Message Board

bottom_stkpicker 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 30, 2014 11:24 AM Member since: Oct 14, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Question on yesterday's action

    by chasrx Mar 27, 2014 6:42 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Mar 30, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    it may be ..when INVE offered 8 million stocks at .85.. 8 or 9 months back..the institution shorted it protect its capital and now covered , as it last conference call they mentioned ..12 million debt was taken off the balance sheet in q4 by selling of certain assets..

    Next 1-2 month will be interesting...saw same behavior with OCLR..around 1.5 range..6 months back..

    Technically it closed the gap created with the spike of 9 million shares between .96-1.01 range..
    1.2 is resistance level..once crosses that..then 1.45-1.5 range..

    All above is use-less..if it can't stay above 1 for next 7 days :-)


  • Reply to

    Can i get some highlights from CC

    by waterjug22 Mar 6, 2014 6:07 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Mar 6, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    congrats for them for working with intel on some project...earned 2.8 million ..q1 contribution will be expect q1 around 8.5 to 9 million..expectation of some revenue in q2 from some intel project..

    so now cash will drop to around 13 million as next qtr will be loss ...

    Will see which way it will be go tomorrow...


  • Reply to

    shorts are going to dry up eventually

    by leiflockhart1986 Feb 21, 2014 5:23 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 21, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    exactly same thing..want to dump every day when see it in red where as overall market is going high..but it was perfect double bottom at 8.32 and volume these days is drying up..and like the company strategy...hoping once street see iocontrol traction in the market and revenue will wake up and close the valuation gap between NMBL.

    The more i read out John spiers..nexgen founder ..who is currently bringing iocontrol to just reminds me of 3PAR...exactly from same level ..went to 33..


  • Reply to

    Out today...//

    by bottom_stkpicker Feb 21, 2014 7:44 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 21, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    The reason ..wireless chip manufacturer across the spectrum are guiding q1 down b/c of inventory if wireless chip manufacturer was more than 10% customer for SMSI in Q4 as they mentioned in Needham Conf, there is good chance , it will also guide down..

    The cash is already at 14.8 million level after q4..

    If more will be at dangerous level

    If break-even for q1..we will be at this level

    If q1 guidance is will rocket..will miss the ride ..but happy with my gains for now.


  • bottom_stkpicker by bottom_stkpicker Feb 21, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    Had a good ride from 1.23 to 1.92..Will re-visit after q1 results..

    good luck longs.

  • Reply to

    what app

    by duhu12 Feb 21, 2014 7:52 AM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 21, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Analyst comment after FB earning call

    Our upgrade last week was based on FB buildout, looks good
    From our conversations we believe FIO is still the leading PCIe partner with
    FB and will benefit materially this year when the DC is built out in 2014.
    Recall that last week FB moved its capex budget from ~$1bn in 2013 to
    $2.3bn for 2014 and we raised our numbers above the street for FY15 (June)
    to $495m vs the street at $455m. When the street moves up to our
    estimates, we expect the shares to react positively.

  • bottom_stkpicker by bottom_stkpicker Feb 20, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    If they can produce the revenue from partnership of m2m..this may be begining of cyclic upturn..

    90--modem boom..went in teens and then bust
    05-07..connection manager boom...went in teens ..then bust
    14..m2m boom..will see how it turns out


  • Reply to

    Chart pattern of cup with handle..//

    by bottom_stkpicker Dec 26, 2013 5:41 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 20, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Second base breaking out...hold it ..worth keeping till 2.9-.300 range...


  • Reply to

    What's the probability...

    by ikeydoo Feb 17, 2014 10:04 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 20, 2014 7:52 AM Flag Facebook is expanding their data center caped so hyperscale revenue will hold good / will grow.. If they can hit on iocontrol product and show it is a viable and competitive product to nimble .. This will catch up with valuation of nimble or both will meet midway .. Eventually it will be bought by hp ...latter or sooner as management team has strong relationship with hp..current CEO from hp..nextgen CEO sold last company to hp


  • bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 19, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    CEO purchased 50K shares..Check nasdaq insitutional investor accumulating 2.5 million shares over the course of last 2 qtrs..bought 1.3 million in q3 and another 1 million in q4.

    The stock is under heavy accumulation..Next qtr if they still achieve 14 million..with all restructuring done...3 million from VMEM will be hitting bottom line..


  • Reply to

    Short interest just evaporated

    by bottom_stkpicker Jul 28, 2013 1:55 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 18, 2014 10:36 PM Flag

    Both technically and fundamentally getting better..

    New institutional investor ..2.5 million purchased in last 2 qtr.


  • Reply to

    Product revenues are DOWN 55%

    by Feb 15, 2014 9:51 AM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 16, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    That's the reason why whole management team has been changed in last 6 months..old management is gone..

    Learn from past and try to look into future..
    - restructuring completed.
    - Next 6 months another 6 million from violin memory..

    Company is lean now...a little growth in revenue ..this will rocket to 3 in no time...just be patient..
    Deferred revenue at December 31, 2013 was $29.8 million, compared with $24.1 million at December 31, 2012


  • Reply to

    Revenue opportunities are not revenue

    by whatsinname57 Feb 5, 2014 4:32 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 5, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    But now they are turning into the stock before it shows up into numbers..
    Expense cut to max and revenue growth coming..max operating leverage

    Before Q4 ..Only Sprint was 10% customer ..

    Now in Q4 Chip manufacturer..more than 10% customer ..just begining

    Panasonic ..big in survellience and security..
    Gemalto ..Big Gorilla in mobile communication.. ( just think any small networking company tying up with CSCO and operating at 80% GM's rocket ready to take off )


  • Reply to

    Doing exactly what I thought it would do.

    by micredman88 Feb 5, 2014 9:41 AM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Feb 5, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    These are cyclical stocks..Buy in Sep/Oct , if market share gain thesis is holding true and sell in Feb.. otherwise stay away..

    The company may be good but CEO is totally #$%$..

    Google the history of CEO ..u will be amazed ..she is still CEO

    in 05 had 20% market share in medium current..10 dollar stock..Varian crushed them..still CEO with loosing all medium current share

    in 07 ..stock at 3 6 dollar offer ..CEO rejected it..

    in 08..30 cent stock..still CEO

    If my guess for following this company is qtr will be same..flat and then analyst will downgrade..will bring this to 1.4-1.5 range..

    Then play accordingly based on info available..until then stay away


  • Reply to

    I see now it is time to put new money...

    by hsangha56 Jan 22, 2014 8:26 PM
    bottom_stkpicker bottom_stkpicker Jan 22, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    agree...with current qtr slightly growing...q4 will take already sowed the seeds for that..
    New management very focused and matured.. Pick as much u can can in small pieces below 10 in q3..won;t be below 10 for long as wall street senses q4 is strong..


  • Listened to end of the year was 14 million ( down from 18 million from q3'14) and revenue around 11.8 million...loss under million..

    Main thing will be guidance for q1 ..on q4 call..


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