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Exelon Corporation Message Board

bottomfisher2012 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 9:19 PM Member since: Apr 15, 2012
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  • bottomfisher2012 by bottomfisher2012 Jul 27, 2015 9:19 PM Flag

    The Greek Stock Markets have been closed for about a month and should reopen this Tuesday. I hope that I am correct. It could be until Wednesday that we get updated prices on this stock as there could be difficulty in reopening all securities and order in-balance problems. The stock should opens up higher as shorts should be covering as there is no drachma coming soon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 23, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    Some institutional holders need to hold only dividend payers and are the likely sellers of the largest number of shares. Anyone in this stock should have factored in some safety to prevent a margin call. Institutions will have time to exit and may have had protective puts, or made money on the downside by selling calls that are now worthless or close to worthless.

    If all goes well oil will bottom later this year as supply including IRAN comes into balance with demand. Demand is growing and non US supply is declining.

    For now enjoy the summer and low gas prices, and I agree some one might have got a margin call with Even IBM and Apple going down. Hold on for the bottom to buy again at lower prices, this company or a competitor.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Insanely oversold and monumentally overdone....

    by ouch_yikes Jul 23, 2015 12:21 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 23, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    If oil keeps going down LNG exports will not make a big impact as they will burn oil instead of gas. Also, other LNG exporters may be cheaper. The good news is that contracted LNG gas might be still shipped. Also, New NG Electric Generation Plant are coming on line to us the cheap gas.

    As for oil , I hope is for US to allow some crude oil exports. US WT priced oil is $10 less than the Brent Crude Oil Price as US Oil is only shipped out as a refined product. For that reason some new refinery capacity has been coming on line to refine or partially refine to allow shipping US oil to other countries.

    I would hold here waiting for supply and demand to balance after the Iranian Crude comes to market in January. I am getting an fuel oil delivery at $2.08 to take advantage of the low prices. Institutions that need the dividend have to sell CHK here. This is the reason for the lack of support. I am afraid the bottom could be near $5 so hang in there for better prices, and buy your home heating oil instead.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 21, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Unless you keep your shares by certificate instead of a book entry with a broker, your broker can loan them out to anyone. If you take delivery of shares in certificate form they cannot be shorted properly. Sometimes brokers will loan shares to other brokers for shorts. It might be possible for large investors to not allow shorting of their shares by broker agreements or a delivery. If they take delivery they can cause a short squeeze if more shares are shorted than available. In a true short squeeze prices can rise to over reasonable values. Also, positive developments for a stock can trigger a rapid rise in its price leading to a short squeeze.
    If values get out of line it might be a good time to sell.

    Some institutional investors might have to sell they company as they may be required to hold only dividend payers. So, these investors might have unloaded today. I hope for a rebound tomorrow as some shorts cover for a gain.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy SOON!

    by devalljeff Jul 21, 2015 8:42 AM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 21, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Chevron could buy out the company at $15 to $18 per share . NG prices should go up as soon as exports start. New NG filling stations for trucks and cars are boosting the NG demand. This company is more a NG producer than a oil producer. Putting the dividend cash into the best drilling prospects should boost production to keep them going as prices recover.

    Also, the company can continue asset sales and even sell more stock to keep it financially sound. Other oil companies have sold themselves or sold stock and assets so there are a lot of options. No Bankruptcy just a risky stock that should recover in a few years. Some Estimates now have the price recovery going into 2017, so it could be a long wait for the final bottom.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend has been suspended until further notice

    by burnaka Jul 20, 2015 10:45 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 20, 2015 11:02 PM Flag

    The dividend announcement was expected a few days ago. The normal payment date should be around July 31 with the announcement about 2 weeks earlier. Pending an asset sale or a review of the condition of the company by the Board, a change in the dividend policy is likely. However, this could be a cut in the dividend, payment in shares, or suspension of the dividend entirely. If the company is being sold, it is not unusual for the dividend policy to be negotiated with the new owners in a merger transaction. I would support a cut in the dividend as it frees up cash to invest or repay debt. Also, check Chevron and other majors prices. If they are to buy CHK their share prices will be declining as they will likely pay in shares near $20. Near or Below $10 this should be a bargain.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Call Right

    by railhead23 Jul 6, 2015 3:44 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 9, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    I think the company has the right to buy at $1 after 5 years. I think the 25 cent number is wrong. It could be they can buy out the trust at the volume weighted average price as long as it is below $1. So unless they price moves up from here you will get the average price i.e. now above 67 cents.

    However, the new exploration oil and gas spin off could affect the ability to buy the trust back. The new oil and gas company might own the trust and FCX might give up the right to buy it back.

    Once the trust starts paying royalties it should move up above $1 as we have 3 years for some meaningful drilling to produce income to happen.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When Will Merger Take Place

    by dennie_cunningham Jun 9, 2015 3:05 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 8, 2015 10:20 PM Flag

    Washington DC still needs to approve the merger. The politicians are coming out against it to appeal to the public. However, they only way the PSC of Washington DC can extract extra benefits from these companies is by agreeing to the merger. So, I expect by September they will approve the merger if not earlier. The companies will offer benefits to various groups to win Washington DC PSC approval. I am holding for the $27.25 offer and a great dividend yield.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jul 6, 2015 10:58 PM Flag

    I think that the price is related to the Greek Market price. The Greek Stock Markets are probably closed so this stock is not trading. If there are any orders there might be a large gap with the possibility that the Greek would go off the Euro. I am not sure if any Debt is in Euros for this stock or would be converted to local currency if Greece goes off the Euro. The Government might still own part of the company.

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 24, 2015 7:34 PM Flag

    They only have to pay out 90% of their earnings. This REIT has no earnings and loses money with legal costs, high interest rates paid to borrow on loans and preferred stock.
    Also, about 25 % of the earnings, if any, would go to pay the CEO and the Board of Directors for their services of running the company. It is ridiculous that the RR had about $900,000 in rent and the CEO was paid about a quarter of that to run the company. The deal was for the CEO to use the cash and build up the company. So far it has been the opposite as the stock has collapsed to 1/2 price. I think the stock could be worth $2 after the next legal bill comes due. The only good thing is that the CEO shares the lose as a large shareholder and should have an incentive to fix the company.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The firm eats up income with about $250,000 going to the CEO. Having RMR run the company might reduce this to close to $100,000 plus directors fees. This would help the firm pay down the debt and could boost the value of the shares. Merging it with another REIT should be a goal as the cost structure is too high for it to be a stand alone firm. There are other REITS in the energy business that are larger and might be a good fit. After a merger, debt could be refinanced to a lower interest rates. I would not buy this until management brings costs inline with the size of the assets.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 16, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    The Results might have been better if they hired and paid amateurs. It should have cost less even if they still lost.
    Supposedly the firm used interns to do some of the work according to Forbes. However, the billing was not like intern level, but the results were like intern level. I think the cost was out of hand and I hope the SEC looks into it. I would not be surprised to see the stock at $2. as they will need to raise cash with interest rates on debt going up and much of nothing coming in to pay bills. The firm would be better managed by RMR and they might have their own lawyers. I will wait for $2 as with no dividend and in my estimate almost no real income after paying debt interest.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The end of every day without fail....

    by johnberchick Jun 10, 2015 3:29 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 15, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    Another executive resigned for personal reasons and took half of his payment due. It seems that too many departures may slow down the new transition team. Wall Street does not like too many changes and some may fear that more accounting problems could appear.

    We should be done with it all in September or August. I will be glad to see a dividend. I expect it to be smaller than the old one, but I hope that it will be increased steadily in the next few years. A 50 cent dividend would be a good start, and a year end extra or an increase would indicate the company is on the mend.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 12, 2015 9:55 PM Flag

    SNH paid a dividend of $1.56 last year. However, the dividend allocation from the website indicates that of the $ 1.56 about $ 0.72 was return of capital. The remaining $ 0.84 classified as ordinary income which is taxable at the same rate as interest income. This company simply does not earn its dividend. Also, shareholders with return of capital must subtract the return of capital amount from the price paid for the shares. After many years you run out of capital and this return of capital is also taxable as a capital gain( I think, check with the IRS on this one). Usually return of capital is like a bank giving your principal back and is not taxed. For an IRA all this is not of a concern as you do not pay tax or need to keep track of the cost basis. SNH may sell stock to finance the dividend or sell off its real estate. This stock is for my IRA and has been a bad performer.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 12, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    The real shaft in the deal for the REIT shareholders is the 10:1 vote. This ensures that the new owners in RMR will never have any say unless this is changed. Blackhawk symbol HAWK did away with this and the lower voting class B shares and A shares became the same. Before that the class B shares traded at a discount to the class A shares. So I expect that the class B or C or D , or F shares distributed to REIT shareholders will trade at a 10% or more discount to the other shares. I doubt that the Class A or 10:1 voting shares will be actively traded or available since there is nothing said that they have to sell some of these shares. I am holding for some issue to try to stop or change the deal either the SEC( please file a complaint ) or contact a Securities Class Action Lawyer.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 10, 2015 11:44 PM Flag

    Part of the deal is for the REIT to be able to exit the deal if the stock under performs. So why not drive the stocks down now. They can be shorted based on the shares to be acquired for RMR much later. If the stocks are very low when RMR is issued they are sure to do well compared to other REITS. Again the RMR owners game the system and screw the shareholder. I hope these Crooks can sleep at night and keep safe with armed guards. If I screwed that many people I would be worried for my safety. I hope the Lawyers and the SEC can put them behind bars where they belong. This would put them in a nice quiet safe place with armed guards for a long time. Please write the SEC and help us get out of this deal with an arresting development. Sell or hold for better news

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    RMR after IPO could grow with new cash

    by mentges Jun 10, 2015 12:15 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 10, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    RMR stock gets paid for in restricted stock. RMR gets nothing in cash and a listing. I think the owners of RMR end up with the restricted stock in exchange for giving RMR stock to the REIT. It is a stock swap where the ownership changes. RMR can sell stock based on the contracts they hold to service the REIT. The contract is like where the RMR owner gets to screw the REIT owners for 20 years as the way the service will work. SNH is down and I hope it will be over done soon

    Sentiment: Hold

  • PW has debt to be paid at increasingly higher interest rates. The REIT needs to pay 13% on some debt. A new issue would help solve the debt problem. A rights offer to existing shareholder would allow them to add to their holdings at a good price. This would be better than selling to selected friends of management on the cheap in some bad deal as appears to have happened before. Some of this should be an SEC issue as shares were sold under the market prices by half.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 10, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    They can get out in 10 years if the Stock significantly under performs the REIT average. However, I have no definition of the amount of under performance. However, they do not have to pay to get out at that point. Since the original RMR owners will own REIT shares it is in their interest to perform better than the averages or at least not significantly below the average REIT. Still it is not a good deal as the old RMR owners will retain voting control. I hope in a few days better news will come out or the Shareholder will try to find a way to block the deal. Where are the Lawyers??

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Look for higher prices

    by takemebacktooxmoon2 Jun 9, 2015 6:30 PM
    bottomfisher2012 bottomfisher2012 Jun 9, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    What is better about getting scammed with Stock with one vote when the original owners will hold super 10 to 1 voting rights. What is better about a so called special dividend when there is no mention of maintaining the regular dividend. I am still waiting to see if we see a bottom. I see no alignment of REIT shareholders with the RMR stock as it has limited power. We paid for RMR stock and got locked up for 10 to 20 years to pay for their services. SNH continues to drop like a dividend cut is needed. This could get much cheaper as investors have no confidence in management as they read the details of the deals. If the SEC could hold up this deal it would be nice. I think with today's price decline this deal could make some shareholders want to find a way to sue. Please note that owners before certain dates will be excluded from any lawsuits. So with the stock at near $18 a dollar or 2 could go to shareholder of record at earlier dates.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

EXC
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