I agree, I will also start building. Look at a 1 year chart and see AGNC has traded below $30.00 eleven times in the last 12 months. This time is really no different, as their earnings miss was caused by their missed TBA rollover fiasco. This is a volatile name, susceptible to over reaction both higher and lower, and now I see opportunity Bow.
I sold my June 30s this morning for a quick 20% gain over the weekend, I still believe in AGNC and will reenter for the next Divy run. Bow
Well, on this I can agree with you. I am strictly a trader, I am in a trade or I am in cash. I was not affected by this AGNC miss as I did not have a trade on. But my concern now is for the folks who were not able to get out 2 or 3 $ ago. These are the folks who hold AGNC in their retirement account or their children's education fund. If they get out now and look for high yield, I worry they wont find anything as good as the return they get with AGNC and will wind up buying it back for more than they sold it. All I am saying is take a moment or two if you are a buy and hold investor and get the sentiment of the stock. I believe most of the short term sell off has been done and maybe overdone. Don't compound your losses by panic selling. In other words don't be panicked into making a mistake by all the negativism on this brd.
That is the question, if they rotate out of this sector, where will they rotate to. This msg board is full of folks saying the end of mtg reits is in sight. I think this miss by AGNC is being way overdone by folks who are short or hoping to buy very cheap. Mtg reits will be over when we have a sustaining rise in interest rates and or QE stops. This miss was due to TBA roll financing that had a rise in interest rates and went right back down. It is already self correcting. This all comes down to, Do you trust Gary Kain and team. I do,I believe they are being truthful with us. Bow
Diva, I have to agree with Phil2u on this one, I just reviewed everything again and it looks tempting, you can buy it under the underwriters net price of 25.23 and I just don't trust this earnings report. And it seems like nobody else trusts it either. hence the low price. The SPO will probably close this Monday May 6 and you could make a play up to earnings-1, but I don't even feel good about that. Bow
Good thing you and I both sold last week, I sold my LINE35s on Thursday for about a 50% gain. I didn't play it as well as I should have as I had 39 dollars(80% gain) twice and let it get away. No remorse, happy its a winner,just learn and move on to next trade. We are going to have our hands full for a little while figuring out how this can be played as a monthly divy player. Good luck Bow
I think that was a good move rolling UAN on XD-1, the MM was definitely playing hard ball. That's the reason I sold on Thursday during the euphoria of the earnings release. Took most of the day to get my price. UAN will go up from here and you should do well. Good Luck
Added a few myself, ;0) OT Out of UAN on Thursday with a 97% gain, I hope you did as well or better, still watching NTI and having a difficult time figuring it out. Best of luck Bow
It was nice to see the price close out 30 cents above the low of the day, some buyers showed interest about 3;30PM. I believe they didn't want to be out the stock over the weekend as people digest what really happened in Q1 with the TBA financing. Once folks realize this was an anomaly that should not repeat, they should return to the name. I made my first , but smaller than normal buy today. I bought AGNCJune30s@1.22 Just a small position but it validates my post. Bow
I saw that, great news .61 dividend and affirming full year 2013 guidance, I also hold C22.5s. I have you to thank for that as I saw one of your posts saying CVR was ready to bolt, after my own DD I have my C22.5s@ 2.37. Thank you very much for the heads up, this should be a nice winner for us. Bow
I just read this post, last cycle my performance was 3&1/2 times better than holding for the div. This cycle I am in 5 of the SS, I missed out on JTP on its first day of eligibility and decided to wait for it to come to me, it never looked back and I didn't chase. Congrats to those who got it the first day, it will be a winner. I am in FSC,ARR,CRF,CLM, and CRP. I didn't maintain my discipline on CRP, did my own thing and bought it early on trader intuition and bought too early and payed too much, my stupid. Some times I still have a hard time staying disciplined to the model when something looks really good. In spite of my lack of discipline on CRP, I am up nicely on everything else and anticipate returns comparable to last cycle. If I would have followed the model better, I would be doing even better. I am a believer in the model. Bow
Walrus IMHO sometimes its more about getting it right than the amount of money. Sometimes, I have celebrated more with little money that I made from a plan that worked to perfection, compared to big money I made by stumbling into it. Make no mistake though both are good. ;) Bow
Diva, found you ;) Diva things have changed since I told you I was waiting for X-1 to sell my LINE options, the conference call wasn't as good as I expected and I might be unloading my LINE options today, I will have a better feel by mid-morning. Bow
I agree, this mornings conference call was confusing, trying to merge a new company, switching the div to monthly, and I did not hear coviction in his voice, Though the numbers themselves are pretty solid. I am in the process of trying to sell 1/2 of my may 35s, and will hold the other half to EDIV-1. there was no bad news ,just no clarity. Bow
Hi Diva, its never a bad idea to take profits, but here I think it is possible and maybe even probable imho we will see 40+ looking at the performance of KMP going into XDIV. I am holding for Xdiv-i or maybe Xdiv-2, good luck Bow