Steven Madden, Ltd. Message Board

Yes, I have another pick for all my TIF fans....see me at GT sight...Buy GT at 14.90...Spend your TIF profits wisely...bling necklace for the wife...after all the shorts paid for it.

GT is at the right place...recovering Europe car sales to top off strong US sales..at the right time...newbies missed the bull market, so catch up cyclical plays are coming back. These bode well for GT. Its pension uncertainty has been eased with the bond issue. Recent cash flow has been good, despite weak Europe, but more important is the good CAPX rel to assets and depreciation. GT has lowered its break even, gets good Consumer Reports ratings...time to capitalize on all of the above...BUY

Yes, I deserve the Noble Prize for brilliant stock analysis on TIF. I am among the elite few who recommended TIF under 60. I gave you the reasons but you did not listen. Rising stock market, real estate, diamond prices, the growth of the top 10%...blah, blah, blah.....Instead you shorted under 60 and are now driving taxis for a living. Some firm I never heard of actually forecast a 52 stock price...incredible misjudgment. Longs, enjoy your well deserved TIF profits as the stock is expected to open above 80..

..shorts you are no match for me, as I am one of the world's best investors.

Knight Frank 2013 wealth report shows growth of wealthy...this should help TIF as I predicted. Stock is now 79 and if you followed me, you have taken some very good profits. At this stage I would sell more than half of a position as the juicy bargains are all gone. Shop at Tif and buy those diamonds...after all the shorts paid for them.
I am curious how some bearish firms had very low prices. There was some firm I never heard of having a price target of 52. I guess this makes the stock market...smart money and dumb money coming together for a transaction.

Replay my brilliant post: Yes yes again
...Yes, I repeat my brilliant recommendation at 3.11 and I said Buy or Die! I then said to take some profits at 6.1 and then to buy TIF. Well TIF is now over 60...actually 64...buy or die!

If you listened to me you would have made good money in TIF. The stock increase is justified: let's review my TIF 101 lesson for the dumb shorts. Stock and real estate bull markets are creating a large wealth effect for the top 10%..TIF gets the benefit. Strong art market and the good pricing at Rappaport diamonds adds more logs to the fire...TIF benefits. Enterprise value to EBITDA for TIF is much lower than recent takeovers, such as Bulgari. TIF has good history and with rejuvenation by new management upon a takeover by a lux chain, profits should increase. Shorts are the dumb ones here because they missed the bull market and clutched to recent quarterly TIF earnings which were decent but viewed poor by the shorts. Yes, it takes skill to do stock valuation. Then some brokerage firm gave a straw to the shorts with some lowball valuation. Obviously, skill challenged.

So what do you say to the TIF shorts........TAXI!!!!!

The pain must be great... Get rid of your short pain.. Cover and buy....see you are now relaxed and happy.

Shorts have many fairly tale stories why TIF should have dropped under 60...amazing how the story is unfolding. Looks like the prince will kiss the princess and you, shorts, will turn into toads...

Recent acquisition news makes TIF a wallflower in the dance with beautiful women. Only a matter of time as the beauty of TIF will attract a dance partner. Shorts...read em and weep...now you die....

Shorts..don't read the following EBITDA analysis.... the low TIF EBITDA multiple will make you sick..or walking dead zombies...

"...PPR declined to give the transaction's financial details but Chief Financial Officer Jean-Marc Duplaix said the price was "in line with the multiples of the industry."

He said Pomellato's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) amounted to 15 percent of the company's 146 million euros of sales last year, up from 102 million euros in 2009.

Analysts estimated the deal gave Pomellato an enterprise value of around 380 million euros, or 16 times EBITDA, which included debt of 60 million.

"The price seems correct in light of the brand's growth potential and margin growth prospects," said Marc Willaume, analyst at broker Raymond James.

Tiffany trades on 9-10 times EBIDTA while Swiss watch group Swatch (UHR.VX) acquired the fine jewellery unit of Canada's Harry Winston HW.TO earlier this year for 31 times its EBITDA.

When LVMH (LVMH.PA) took on Bulgari in 2011, it paid 28.2 times the Roman jeweller's EBITDA."

And the first thing I said to him at McDonald's was... Can you supersize my fries?

Hope so... You paid for it.....if only you listened to me, you'd be shopping with me

TOL is down from expectations because it is acting as it should. The easy money is made when the real estate bargains are gone. Once houses become good values, stocks have peaked because the market is looking at future interest rate increases. Then real estate stocks plunge once the market demand is saturated. So let's review..buy when there is bad news...sell and take profits when the news is good...sell all when the news is great...easy, no?

With TIF breaking above 71, the shorts are sweating again after sustaining heavy losses. They will probably have more strategy meetings, mind games, memos and pontifications on the why this is going up....if only they listened to me...for traders I would buy but have a put at 70 to hedge bets...after all you can afford it. The breakout can soon be fueled by a buy MACD signal. Longs should still have some shares but avoid buying here unless you are playing a takeover which is hard to predict but is a possibility. HSBC target of 82 should be a magnet for the longs as the 52 Canaard becomes a distant memory.

Seems HSBC has raised its target price on TIF to ...82 close to a buyout price....what a coincidence...meanwhile that Canaard firm has a price closer to 50s...I wonder how great minds get so radically different numbers...hope its not Skinners Mouse syndrome where the mouse controls the investigator..or the client controls the brokerage firm.....still, I am closer to the 82 given the HNW wealth increase, stock and real estate firming prices....shorts...be afraid...very afraid...

How do you greet a TIF short?.........TAXI !!!!!!

TIF earnings comments were above expectations... no kidding as HNW making more money and rising stock and real estate prices creates more blue boxes. We made over 10 points on our buy recommendation as the fear nonsense in the high 50s has hysterical and led to a nice buying opportunity.

Trading positions were closed with nice profits, but for long term holdings, some sales for profits were recommended but maintenance of some shares for the longer term were urged.

Now the shorts have to cover and the stock may pop, so I would wait for the shorts to get diapers and stop crying, and then consider buying for longer term. The elephant hunters for lux stocks may have to act now or miss it. Looks like...buy or die! Hey shorts...like my yellow 1+ct diamond pendant? Hope so...you paid for it!

Rapaport March 18 issue reports that De Beer diamond prices are firming. Should be good for HWD

The upcoming earnings will reflect the past... we know that it was weak. The market looks into the future and the real earnings are those coming up, especially the upcoming fourth quarter, and its seasonally large. So with the global HNW wealth increase, rising stock and real estate prices, there are more favorable winds for TIF sales going forward. Lux safari takeover hunters of niche lux stocks have a small window. I already stated that recent De Beer pricing was good. So if TIF sells off....I am ready to reload and buy again. I rode over 10 points up with my recommendation on this site...so, I am tan, rested, ready...shorts be afraid, very afraid....