Agreed and it is about big boys moving things.
Once they turn to Long NG, then we roll up again (assuming cold winter and some w/d like last winter). If we don't get a cold winter, we are in for another big down in NG. I am still long and getting longer, but I will watch fall/winter closely.
I started buying back again. Got some at 24.63. I can't resist down here. I added UPL more aggressively today as I like their recent swap of Marcellus / Pinedale with Shell.
Still looking at SD which is getting absolutely crushed (at 2 year low).
Right, but more to come potentially. Look at shallow Gulf of M. HERO has half of their rigs stacked!!!! Wow. I dipped in on EXXI (small position) but it is getting hit hard. I like your point as well.
I will do so and also encourage others to do the same.
Quick advice for Rainbow in the meantime is ignore the shadows. I rarely read them (I did tonight), but I don't miss anything, since it is all garbage from them. Everyone who wants and looks for info quickly figures that out, so no need to really respond. Reporting them and their abuse is a good idea.
Hang in there! bqdoo
You are the fraud. You are on ignore. Goodbye.
Rainbow is a solid poster with info being posted. We all know you and your alias' are the fraud.
Yes, I think bias is down, but I have noticed that around 3.8 we seem to have support and then bounce to 4 (which in turn is strong resistance), so I added today and may write some calls if NG pushes back near 4 and we rebound.
Agree and disagree. Early does equal wrong, since you could have made money elsewhere and then bought in lower. So early = wrong imo in this instance.
I of course am wrong but have still done better than buy-hold by adding or selling/selling cc at different points. I was wrong not to sell some over $30 earlier.
Agree totally on where we are not and so I am adding. Better positioned then ever, better assets (Uinta), and we should do fine as low NG producer, but our big upside is when NG pricing rises.
I noticed EIA's 2015 pricing prediction for NG of 3.87 (or similar as I am going from memory).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
And anyone who hasn't done the math here is a quick one. Rounded for ease. Oil $100, NG $4, energy equiv 6-1. So energy equiv oil =$100, NG =$24 so a 4-1 price to energy. All alternates are usually compared to oil and they are expensive even relative to that. People and governments really miss the cost benefit and the green fossil fuel benefits of NG.
I am long, strong and fully loaded, but I just moved some cash around and may add one more time. Yes, I am very confident it will be much higher as will NG, so this is the best leveraged play with good mgt and balance sheet that I can find (thus my #1 e&p by far). Good luck to us!
Totally agree on point #5. Agreed on 1-3 because shorts are in charge right now. On #4 I think it may be sooner than 2 years, but that is a conservative view imo. Aka, Sep 2016 NG demand should be much higher and pricing similarly higher (hard to say what correct pricing should or will be), but I would say in 2016, won't see any 3 handles like current. 4 handles will likely be buying opportunities and 5+ should be the norm.
not a chance. Balance sheet / debt paydown is priority #1 #2 & #3. We are happy with current divi and it is safe and helps with patience. In a year, we can revisit and is possible, but we need higher commodity prices and especially forward strip pricing.
I am long and it has been challenging, but agreed on getting rid of HEK and Johnsrudd is doing the right things, but had a lot to overcome.
They need a couple good quarters, but the fact that they didn't sell TFI desparately at that cheap offer price MAY, just may be the turn along with insider buys. If we turn, then price is dirt cheap.
Balance sheet is challenged, but not overwhelming yet. Obviously that is the risk here.