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brad_welsh 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2016 12:01 AM Member since: Jul 9, 2001
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  • Reply to

    DHCC MANAGEMENT

    by syindigo Jun 23, 2016 2:16 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh Jun 25, 2016 12:01 AM Flag

    The same CEO and Board that have effectively driven this thing into the ground? I don't know what you use to keep score, but 20 years of "potential" that never materialized, all the while the CEO and Board rob the shareholders of their assets and equity. Why not talk about the millions upon millions of shares of stock grants/options. And when the stock tanks, they just grant more lower and lower. There's no accountability on performance. What about the destruction of shareholder value? What about the lavish "rent" payments for corporate offices? There's really no incentive for anyone to invest here. The company has so much debt and unpaid obligations, just look at their most recent SEC filings, they are effectively bankrupt. Their poor management also has led no one to have any faith in them. Lastly in the last 20 years, casinos have spread all around DHCC to most every state. Mississippi doesn't need another casino on the coast, it's already oversaturated, and no large casino company is going to build one there, their window of opportunity is gone. When Mississipi was one of the few areas with casinos in the US, there was a lot of potential, but not anymore. Additional Southern states are also looking at expanding gambling or getting their own, such as Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia...what do you think that will further do to Mississippi casinos? They are like Atlantic City as the surrounding areas have gotten their own casinos.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    STRANGE 5% ADVANCE

    by west11st May 27, 2016 2:57 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh Jun 2, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    DK is going to acquire them in the short term, there is no doubt about it. You just have to listen to DK's latest earnings call where they say "pending acquisition" of ALJ. It doesn't get any more clearer than that. The million dollar question is how they will do it with cash, stock, etc and what the premium will be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Latest SEC Filing. Where there is one fund, others will follow. I think it sets DK up for a nice slow consistent move up going forward. DK needs to hurry up and kick in their stock buy back before prices go up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    buy out coming soon..

    by yupengchiang May 27, 2016 3:13 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh May 30, 2016 11:05 PM Flag

    Yes, DK will buy them, that's a given if you listened to DK comments on their earnings conference call. That will also come sooner than later in the near term. The big question is what premium they'll pay for the remaining ALJ they don't own.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This should bode well for the whole sector that Warren has been buying and adding to his already large position in the refinery sector. DK needs to hurry up and allocate the share repurchase at the cheap prices before the stock price starts to move and it has less of an impact.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The 1 year standstill agreement ended this weekend. DK will now make a move to acquire the 52% they don't own. I bet it's sooner than later considering the stock hit new lows.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Pending Acquisition

    by brad_welsh May 6, 2016 9:37 AM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh May 10, 2016 2:23 PM Flag

    We'll see how quickly DK makes a move on them. I imagine sooner than later, because the stock is so low and means less of a premium they will have to pay.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • brad_welsh by brad_welsh May 10, 2016 10:38 AM Flag

    You'd think with them averaging 27-29 dollars a share in the 4th Quarter and 2015 that they'd be excited to buy back stock here. Seems they've been slowly ramping it up, because they want to conserve cash for whatever they do with buying the rest of ALJ. However if you listen to their conference call they acknowledge their stock is a better buy than ALJ, so you'd think they would be hitting it hard. Today is the first day they can start the buybacks again after the earnings announcement with their self imposed trading black outs. With more cash flowing to the balance sheet, they should be utilizing it extensively to repurchase shares on the cheap, especially as they are trading well below tangible book value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Pending Acquisition

    by brad_welsh May 6, 2016 9:37 AM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh May 6, 2016 1:55 PM Flag

    They kept saying how happy they were happy with their 48% at $16 a share and how they still like ALJ, however the main thing will be determining a value since their stock is down and they feel their stock is a better opportunity with buybacks. So perhaps the way to play it is buy DK stock and get the underlying 48% of ALJ. Also means the upside on ALJ might be limited to whatever premium they pay in a deal, so the idea of ALJ going back to the highs of 20 bucks probably won't materialize, more like a 20% premium or so on an acquisition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not a bad report at all, going forward they are positive. They will acquire Alon at the right price. Cash continues to build, and by their own admission their stock price is cheaper and a better value than Alon, so they perhaps may step up the buybacks. Seems like they are running the business well, and the market should reflect this. Analysts will probably start to upgrade soon, plus the company perhaps re-entering the market as a buyer of buying back their own stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • brad_welsh by brad_welsh May 6, 2016 9:37 AM Flag

    If you listen to the Delek conference call you'll see their CEO stated on numerous points how they want to combine with Alon, even so much as saying "Pending Acquisition". So this means they'll make a play for ALJ.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    no news are good news?

    by luishone May 4, 2016 6:23 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh May 5, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    That will go away when DK makes a play on them at the end of this lockup period. Grant it DK doesn't pay a bad yield themselves and and is a good opportunity too so even if they did paid out some in stock it wouldn't be bad, plus the synergies. Only problem is if they take ALJ in a cash deal, there will be a premium, but not like if ALJ remained on their own and the stock was allowed to run its course.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price guesstimate

    by ninefortyone May 3, 2016 2:04 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh May 4, 2016 3:30 PM Flag

    Price will be driven by their report tonight, which I don't think will be all that bad. Wall Street will take into account what the future holds for them going forward so it may spike up some. The only concern longer term is DK makes a play to take them out when their year standstill expiration comes up later this month.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Last four years every year $9 to $20,

    by goodusedfurniture Apr 6, 2016 2:19 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh May 3, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Declining Revenue is a function of oil price. When it's booked at 100 dollar a barrel or 4 dollars a gallon at their gas stations and the underlying price changes to 50 dollars or 2 dollars it changes the revenue, but not the total throughput volume or gallons sold, that's the metric to look at it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Will be interesting to see what is said. With the stock still well below book value, once they announce earnings it would be best if they keep on the gas pedal for continued share repurchases or even expanding the share repurchase for this year. It's the best use of shareholder assets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Seems like they are at the bottom of their trading cycle and present a good opportunity going forward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CAT has seen the market bottom, and so this will also help DE going forward. It's a good opportunity going forward, not to mention DE is cranking off a lot of free cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Still below Book Value

    by brad_welsh Apr 12, 2016 10:55 PM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh Apr 26, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    You neglect to take into account the business interrruption proceeds and cash flow from operations. They had a huge pile of cash hit the balance sheet last quarter. Keep in mind going forward the business will continue to crank off cash. Also BP beat on their refinery sector today, so will be interesting to see how this plays out with DK.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like funds are going long

    by brad_welsh Apr 25, 2016 9:50 AM
    brad_welsh brad_welsh Apr 25, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    The stock keeps trending up. I imagine this morning was a little "tree shake" to shake out some cheap shares and stops before they it goes roaring back up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Seems like a lot of funds keep expanding their stakes in LL. This should put further pressure on the high short interest.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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