Previous post refers to the shanghai futures in China. The LME went up a tad this week but remain at 7 year lows. I believe that a good chunk of the LME totals are held by Copper ETFs and aren't for sale.
Neil, Copper warehouse levels down another 6800 tons this week, total now under 80K tons, vs 220K tons earlier in the year. China will have to start restocking soon and spot price, currently 3.18+ up 3+ cents, will continue to rise. We were early, but we won't be late.
The Friday weekly Copper Warehouse level report from the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that reporting warehouse levels in China have dropped below 100,000 tons. They were 220,000+ tons earlier in the year.
google SHFE. click on weekly inventories. they come out every Friday. Totals were down 7600 tons today. Shanghai futures Exchange warehouse levels not at their lowest, but they're low, droppd from 220K earlier in the year down to around 110K tons currently. There are bonded warehouses in China that don't report their totals, but from experience, they roughly correlate to what the reporting warehouses are doing. Chinese copper consumption is currently steady and strong.
Don't look now but 480,000 tons of copper have disappeared out of the LME copper warehouses in the last 12 months, and another 100,000 have come out of the Sanghai exchanges. LME levels dropping by about 1,500 tons per business day.. Clearly a major production deficit that no one is talking about. Copper spot will be over 3.50 by Sept 30th and the share price of FCX wil be north of the 39 limit you are claiming. Holding for more than the divi. Brain
Neil, from your post to God's ears. Will probably need $4 spot copper for your double. SHFE warehouse levels down 6700 tons this week, BTW. LME warehouse levels are at lowest in over 5 years, so maybe we will see it.
Mark, you'll still collect the 8/1 divi on the full 1700, and you still have the 400 core position. I'm sure there will be dips/opportunities to add, if you're so inclined. Good Luck. Always appreciate your posts.
From thr release:
Under the MOU, PT-FI would agree to provide a $115 million assurance bond to support its commitment for smelter development, pay reduced export duties that would decline as smelter development progresses and pay increased royalties of 4 percent for copper and 3.75 percent for gold from the current rates of 3.5 percent for copper and 1 percent for gold. The MOU provides that PT-FI and the Indonesian government would commence immediate negotiations for an amended COW. These negotiations will take into consideration the need for assurance of legal and fiscal terms for PT-FI to continue with its large-scale investment program for the development of its reserves.
Info in news Re: Memo of Understanding suggests, among other things, that FCX is agreeing to sell 30% of its 91% ownership of Grasberg to Indo investors. How much will that(divesting 30%) net the company? What is the value of Grasberg, after Memo of Understanding in effect and "normal production" resumes??. Annual report suggests Grasberg has 30 billion in proven copper reserves. Grasberg produces 22% of total company copper output, 91% of Gold byproduct output. Company current market cap is a shade over a billion shares times around $39/share, 39 billion. Say 40 billion for round figures. Allocate 15% of company value to O&G. I'm guessing that Grasberg is worth 30% of the 85% of the company that is mining. So say 25.5% of market cap is Grasberg. So I'll say that 30% of Grasberg is roughly equal to 8% of FCX market cap. 3.2 billion? Or do you value a mine based on a percentage of its proven reserves?
If anyone who will be on the upcoming CC reads this, I think asking management if their agreement with Indo Govt will involve divesting 30% of their Grasberg ownership is part of the MoU and how do they value the Grasberg and what do they think they will take in by selling 30% of their interest in Grasberg, would all be good questions. I'm assuming that the money they net would go almost entirely to reducing the debt load.
Max keep in mind that the new Indo Administration, whomever it is, will not take over until October. Since we've already gone two Quarters w/o concentrate exports and we can break even on Grasberg and have 500M net income even when Grasberg operates at 50% capacity, I'm betting that FCX does not sign off on MoU and turn production back on until the new regime is in place and signs off on the agreement. Just my opinion.
Max, if the Indo export tax gets settled, there is no question but that FCX can reduce their debt as they suggested, from cash flow alone. Even with Grasberg operating at 50% in Q1, and with an average copper price of $3.19, FCX generated 626 mil in Q1 Free Cash Flow, $510 million in Q1 net income. (numbers from the Qtrly rpt) Subtract roughly 330 million to pay the dividend on 1.038 billion shares, there's a quarter billion dollars plus available to reduce debt per quarter. So even if nothing changed at Indo, CX can retire a billion per year of debt. Every 10 cent/pound increase in the average price of copper FCX sells at increases revenues $275 million with no increased cost. I don't think any secondary offering of stock is needed or should be done. When Indo gets settled, earnings, and the stock will fly.
Max agree with your post. However I'm not sure NEW is doing the right thing. As long as FCX is breaking even on Grasberg at 50% output, they are able to keep their Indo workers on full pay while negotiations play out. And IMO doing so will build up some serious good will with the Indo Govt and the unions while FCX shows everyone that contracts are contracts. It is apparently important to the stability of the Indo currency on the world stage that Indo exports copper and not just concentrate. Not cutting (worker pay) to care and maintenance also keeps FCX out of the politics of the situation. Remember, they are letting us dig money out of their yard. Hope NEW doesn't get any backlash from their choice of course.
PS. DNK which neck and neck candidate would be better for FCX, but decided I'm voting for Jakarta Governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo for Indo President (figuratively of course) . Cool name.
Agree with you bullseye, but will feel better after more of that 20+ billion in debt gets knocked down and when Indo resolved. So far 200 mil and then 1.7 bil in debt knocked down since the O&G purchases. Adkerson over in Jakarta sippin' Sake with the Indo politicos as we speak. They do sip Sake in Indonesia right??
Reality, saw your conversation with Neil. How is your health? How's "Nawlins"? I see in the news some people gettin shot up down there. And are you holding on to all your FCX? Good Luck. Brain
Hi Neil. I suggest that FCX diplomatically take a hardline w/ Indo government on everything except agreeing to chip in on building another smelter. A shortage of finished copper is in the process of developing. LME down to under 155K today, compared to 670K one year ago. Since the company diversified with income generating O&G assets and sold the Eagle Ford to buy the Apache GOM pay off 1.7B in high interest debt and still have 100M left over, no rush. Wait for the new Indo Administration after the July elections to deal.