The stock price has been driven down so far (irrationally!) that we have lost over $200m in market cap. Its almost as if we have priced in a secondary offering that may (or may not) happen. During the conference call they were clear that there was no secondary offering coming through 2016.... they pointed to cash on hand, payments for various milestones etc. and who can forget the fact that they are already selling a drug that gives them $43,000 per patient on average. If 22 patients buy the average course, they take in $1m. Yup. Its a veritable cash printing machine with NO COMPETITORS.
They didn't mention it on the call, but the cash they will soon be rolling in from Onyvide will be more than enough to beat their burn rate in short order. Heck, its meant to ramp to almost $900m/yr within a few years JUST IN THE USA!
So all that being said, what on earth is going on with the share price? Even if there was no pipeline; even if there were no other Onyvide indications beyond the one they have so far.... They are basically selling at just over 1X peak sales in the USA.
Am I missing something here? Regardless of the share price now, fundamentals and cash don't lie. They are going to be printing money in short order. Cancer patients facing such an awful outcome will be clamouring for Onyvide to help their chances and give them a longer and better quality life.
So all this being said, i'm doubling down. I'm putting in more at these insane levels. At some point this stock will match reality, be it through a buyout or be it through having hundreds of millions of $ pouring in.
Appreciate comments and your thoughts.
Agree 100%. Bought another 1500 shares at $8.67.
Its free money! I mean, seriously, in the longterm, how can you possibly value this stock under $1b? Its insane. The cash is starting to and will continue to flow in.
Ummm... $450m/year in US sales ALONE, the company is only valued at about $1b. Regardless of pipeline, that makes MACK a screaming buy.... hence the Oppenheimer upgrade this morning to $15/share and the many other upgrades that will soon follow, based on the folks on the conference call from various firms.
No, drug to be priced at $11,000 PER MONTH and the average course will be just 3-4 months. Your numbers are way low.
Stock pricing is not always completely rational. In this case we have seen a massive spike, breaking some MA's, which points to a continued move higher. It was oversold and is now climbing towards what is a more reasonable valuation. Stocks are not always priced 'correctly'. Smart investors will take advantage of these pricing variances by adding to their position. If you check my posts, you'll see I added 1000 more shares both at $7.77 an $8.15. Don't ask why a price doesn't match reality.... just take advantage of it.
Bought 1000 at $7.77 and 1000 at $8.15 I'm laughing all the way to the bank. The stock is still stupidly cheap. Even if MM-398 is not approved, there will be a large run up leading to Oct. 19th. I will pare back during that time and hold a medium amount going into the date itself. Its a printing press to make money. After the 19th.... who knows. Maybe maybe not.
Sometimes you make a call that you know is right.... like yesterday buying 1000 shares at $7.77 and $8.15 earlier in the day. And i've gotta say it feels pretty great this morning. Phew! Catching a falling knife is tough but sometimes it works out well.
Barons mentions MACK as a takeover target. And why not! It's trading at approx 1 year of mm-398 sales market cap. Stupidly low and gives no value to rest of pipeline or future sales. Ridiculous. And that is why I continue to buy more at these levels. It's insane.