Just my opinion, but I think the increase in short interest is from hedge funds shorting to keep the price low so they can accumulate. It doesn't make sense any other way. Cruise 2 should be a repeat of Cruise 1. Even if the results aren't as great, the trial was looking for a small increase in hemoglobin, which should not be hard to hit. The past week, there has been large bids at 4.85 of 150k shares. I also saw about a 50k bid at 4.86. I think hedgies are shorting to keep the price low, then will cover soon after they've accumulated, shaken out the retail holders and then this thing should run.
Very undervalued at this point IMO. Per Frost on CC, paraphrased, "We remain in constant contact with all regulatory agencies regarding all our programs and no concern has been expressed about any current program."
Mgt was very upbeat and positive. Outlook seems bright and PPS seems undervalued. Bought back a new position today going into earnings. Shorts will start to cover IMO due to catalysts moving forward and potential for Mabthera CHMP approval in August.
Lots of biotechs getting beat up heading into earnings because no one wants to get caught by surprise. Happened with ARNA the other day as well and it was green today and moving off it's lows.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
No decision was made in June for Herceptin-SC, so some retail moron hits the panic button to sell in pre-market. I'm going to continue to hold for a run into July BAX/HALO update on Hyq, CHMP likely now in July on Herceptin-SC and we get phase 2 data tomorrow on Halo's cellulite product. No reason to get impatient and hit the panic button, lol.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Check out the 8-k released today. UNIS is finanlizing debt financing versus dilution. They also reiterate more deals coming. This is highly + for longs.
The CMF does not work well as an indicator in this stock. I reviewed the technical aspects and MACD/RSI seems to be a better indicator. The money flow you speak of starting around 4/15 did indeed turn positive, but has since whipsawed back and forth across the 0 line indicating neither a bullish nor bearish money flow change. Also, looking at the past 6 months of the chart, money flow is not a good indicator of share price changes.
I'm long UNIS at all time lows, but even as a long, I'm trying to understand parts of the short thesis. Shortall CEO recently stated they plan to do debt financing instead of dilution at this share price. He also reiterated that he is the largest shareholder and wants share price to increase just as much as shareholders and he feels any dilution more than anyone else.
If UNIS can start announcing more deals and revenue, this will trigger short covering and we'll be headed back in the other direction.
Gary, I opened a long position last week myself. I think we all see the bull story, but what do you think about the bear story? Specially the following:
1) UNIS never seems to mentioned who their partner is. Typically the joint partnerships are announced and made public knowledge. A release of a pharma name would be the short thesis to rest IMO.
2) Alan Shortall seems to have a questionable past. I won't go into details, but do a simple good search and you'll find some crazy stories from his Australian days. He seems shady based on these articles nonetheless.
3) UNIS retesting 52 week lows and all time lows. No support in the chart below here.
Intelligent response only.
Thanks for sharing and I'd like to hear some more DD on UNIS. I took a position this week with a cost basis around $2.00. From what I can tell, there has to be some naked shorting going on with this stock. Has UNIS been on the REG SHO list recently? The other thing that seems weird is how the stock took off April 9th when they announced a deal, then sold off to new 52 week lows. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'm not sure if shorts are thinking that dilution might be coming soon as well? The company has stated previously they are seeking non-dilutive financing. Also any deal that comes in should provide cash flow as well. It's also troubling that the stock is re-testing the 52 week low on Friday, however, a double bottom reversal may be in play too. So far institutional ownership is increasing for reported ownership ending 3/31. Any thoughts on the price action heading into earnings 5/9?
Silverold, I had my order fill today at $6.50. I originally sold all my shares at $7.40 post ESTABLISH-2 data and I'm starting a position about 14% off those highs. I'm keeping a tight stop here because there's not a lot of support in this area until about $6.09. However, Trius is having a corporate presentation Friday at 9am. The company PR this event as well as PR a new member of the board from Johnson and Johnson. Trius seems to be doing all the right things. I wouldn't be surprised to have some sort of major news on Friday that could move the stock.
This was a pre-planned automatic buy if share price dropped to that level. Nothing wrong with that and actually kinda shows you what price the CFO thinks is a strong buy = 6.95
Sentiment: Strong Buy
2nd trial is IV minimum of 1 day, then can switch to oral based on the investigators clinical opinion. IV therapy is typically the standard due to it's higher bioavailability and faster onset of action. Switch to oral can be made once the patient is stable.
You guys are the reason boards like this can never really take off. Beavertail and siamesekitty are alter egos. You destroy any helpful interaction on the board.
They filed options March 27th 2012. They're doing it earlier in March of this year IMO because they anticipate + data. If they grant options March 27th, 2013, it'll likely be after ESTABLISH-2 data.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Not reading too much into it, but the timing is nice in their favor if they report good data. Those options will obviously be worth more if they're granted pre-data and data is highly +.
Company got a CRL in 2010 for it's formulation of granisetron. Granisetron is an already approved FDA drug. APPA has discovered proprietary technology that allows for 1 injection to be given that allows 5 days of nausea and vomiting coverage instead of multiple dosing with other formulations. This is a huge advantage in the chemo market. The company says the market is worth somewhere around 800-900 million if I remember correctly. 75% of all NDA resubmissions get approved. Combine the fact that the company seems to have satisfied issues the FDA had with QT-prolongation and manufacturing, I strongly feel APPA gets approved and moves to the 1.25-1.50 range. The company diluted in the summer about 100 million shares at 0.53ish per share. That should serve as support IMO. The stock ran up to 0.89 cents recently and has now ran back down to pre-runup range. RSI, Bollinger Bands, stochastics all point to oversold conditions. Combine that with strong support in the 0.50-0.53 range and I think this stock moves up into the March 27th PDUFA date.
Now for the risks. This stock trades in the OTC market. I generally hate the OTC market as the market makers control what the stock does. If the big boys wanna let it run, it will. Lots of people on twitter speculating a fund has been wanting to unloaded shares before PDUFA driving the price down. Games are played in the OTC markets and retail is at a disadvantage. If you can stomach the swings, I think this can turn into a good trade from these levels. However if 0.50 breaks, I think more stop losses get taken out. Friday the stock held up well. If Monday goes smoothly, a reversal may be in play.
Crewrider, you can find all the answers to your questions on the companies website and via SEC filings. APF530 will receive approval this time around IMO and the company has been hiring about 10 key personal to get this product moving.
APPA is way oversold right now and has experienced a full technical correction. This stock does trade on the OTC markets which I personally hate due to the manipulation that can be done in this market. However, that being said, if you don't freak out and give up your shares like they want retail to do, no one will be able to hold the share price down on approval.
I also have been buying APPA for it's March 27th catalyst on it's retracement. High odds of approval and I think it's way oversold right now based on the technicals and close catalyst.
Beaver, you're right I bought heavily and more than I wanted in the 4.50s and again after the dilution in the pre-market. I knew this stock would take off someday and sold out once it crossed 6 in a few phases. I bought back in Friday at 6.22 for a few shares just incase news were to pop over the weekend. I'm going to see how this trades the next few days and have a tight stop in place. I expect some retracement based on the shooting stars that have formed on the candles.
As I've stated before, 7-7.50 if where we end up + data. I do expect some sort of euro partnership in the month or two afterwards.