You know I am a big fan of RGEN. Great management, loads of cash, no debt and increasing sales
However, keep an eye on forward looking PE. This year it will be more than 60.. Next year also about 60. Assuming a share price of 20. Is a PE of 60 justified? Or is a PE closer to 20 or 30 or even 40 more reasonable.
Anyway, great company with valuations that need to be taken into consideration.
I don't think the shorts are driving ANR down. It is a terrible environment for coal. Met coal in oversupply and abundant and cheap natural gas.
That being said, the met coal situation will correct and NG cannot be extracted at below cost forever. ANR has billions, maybe trillions of dollars in the ground, plenty of money and is burning very little cash.
ANR will do well, but not this week or this month.
OK, fracking causes earthquakes. Fracking is poisoning water. Is this an issue. Maybe
What we know without any doubt is that global warming/climate change is complete and total nonsense.
But solar energy is exploding. It is projected that within 20 years solar share of electricity will be 0.30%
According the the Pew Poll, which is pretty reputable, 53% of american either think that man made global warming is complete and total nonsense or that there is less than convincing evidence that man made global warming is happening
Another 40% believe man made global warming is happening. 7% have no opinion
. Nationwide, public health services are trying to identify those 40% who still believe in this global warming nonsense and place them in straight jackets to protect themselves from their own stupidity.
The EIA projects that the United states will increase power production by 20-30% by 2040. Coal use will decline from 40% to 30%, according to the EIA. The amount of coal used in 2040 will stay about the same as it is today.
What will really happen
1) Nuclear power which accounts for 20% of power today will decrease to about 15% with nuclear power plant shutdowns and few new nuclear plants. There are 100 nuclear plants in the United States. In 2013 and 2014 8-9 nuclear plants will shut down. Many more will shut down in the future. It takes 6-7 years to build a nuclear power plant. 4 or 5 are on the drawing boards but the earliest they will be operational in 2020 - if at all.
2) Economical natural gas is neither cheap nor plentiful. 50% of all natural gas in the United States come from only 30 counties. The sweet spots where natural gas can be extracted economically are vanishlngly small. Natural gas is the future only if you want to pay an arm and a leg for it.
3) Solar acounts for 0.4% of power production in the United states - 0.17% worldwide. If solar had a future we would have seen it by now.
4) New Wind power projects are extinct since the subsidies for wind power no longer exist
5) Hydroelectric power maxed out 50 years ago. there is no more in the United States
What is going to replace decreasing nuclear power production and expensive natural gas. Maybe coal.
Once it is generally accepted that C02 has no influence on climate or temperature and once we get this primate out of the White House coal will be doing the heavy lifting for power production.
1) No implimentation until 2017 at the earliest. Probably much later with legal challenges and congressional distain for the plan
2) Any president can eliminate it with a signature. Probably the first action the next Republican President will take
3) By 2017 it will be obvious that global warming/climate change is complete and total nonsense.
Yes sir, Georgie, solar now accounts for 0.17% of power production worldwide and 0.4% in the United States. Maybe someday solar will account for 0.20% of power production worldwide. That's amazing.
Natural gas for power production accounts for 150-160 of the 500 natural gas produced each week.
Natural gas accounts for about 24% of power generation. For ecah 1% change in the percentage of natural gas power production there is a change of 6 in the weekly natural gas storage injections.
Last year natural gas accounted for about 28% of power production. This year about 24. The 4% difference represents 24 in storage injections. Each percentage point represents a change of 6 in storage injections.
This year we are using 2, 3 or 4 percent less natural gas for power production than last year. Consequently we should have natural gas injections of 12, 18 or 24 more than last year.
That is about what we are seeing. Higher natural gas injections than expected. If this continues we may see start of heating season storage about 3200-3300 rather than 3000.
May and early June always have the highest natural gas injections. Last year there was an injection of 111 in May and several injections slightly less than 100.
After June injections plummet until September when for a few weeks injections are close to 100 again. Last year there was one injection of 101 in September
This year does not seem to be much different. We have had one injection of 106 in May. We will have other injections slightly above or slightly below 100 this May and June.
The idea that we are going to have record natural gas injections this injection season is magical thinking.
Well said Ben
There is no energy source waiting to replace coal. Natural gas production is stagnant and has been since the beginning of 2012. The idea that ng gas production can be ramped up is nonsense.
The idea that ANR has lost billions in the last few years is also nonsense. ANR has more cash now than they had 2 years ago. The billions in losses were paper losses due to writedowns.
This last quarter was the worst for ANR. Yet they had negative cash flow of only 50 million and 30 million of that was a non-recurring expense.
There are several reasons we should be having higher ng injections
1) coal now accounts for 43% of power production up from 32% 2 years ago. Less ng is being used for power production so more ng should be available for storage injections
2) according to the EIA ng gas production is creeping up - very, very slowly. This should provide more ng gas for storage injections.
Surprise surprise, last week the ng gas injection was 14 below the same week a year ago and this week the ng gas injection was 1 below the same week last year. The injection this week was 97 not 105. The 105 number was after reclassifying some gas from working stocks to storage.
Why are these ng injections so anemic. The EIA is calculating on a 20% increase in weekly storage injections this year over last year to replenish storage. Not happening and not going to happen.
The reason that ng injections are so anemic is because natural gas production is declining. Even though we are using less ng for power production which increases ng storage injections - we are producing a whole lot less natural gas the the Obama progoganda machine would like us to believe
I think you should demand a refund from that accounting school you went to. ANR had negative cash flow of about $50 million last quarter and a lot of that was one-time non-recurring items.
Apparently Boone predicted, several months ago, that NG would be at $5 this summer. About 24 hours ago on CNBC Boone predicted that NG would be over $5 this summer. How much over is anyones guess.
Utica has always been iffy. Devon pulled out early. Total abandoned the Utica. but who knows. There might be something there.
The real issue is conventional gas plays. Conventional gas plays still provide 60% of our natural gas but are declining at 10-20% per year. Not one conventional gas well will be drilled this year. Puts a heavy burden on overhyped shale plays to pick up the slack.
First, the good news. The last quarter and maybe this quarter represent the absolute bottom for realized coal prices for ACI. Every play, PRB, Appalachian and Bit Coal are at rock bottom prices. The good news is that even with this perfect storm ACI has minimal cash burn. Liquidity issues are nowhere in the picture.
The bad news. We know that PRB and Bit coal pricing are going up each quarter from here. Probably Appalachian thermal coal pricing is also on an upswing. However, the bad news - met coal may stay depressed for a while longer.
You need to be CPA to shift through these numbers. However, we are at the depths of a coal down cycle and cash burn was not much. Once you get rid of depreciation, amortization etc and factor in capex - ACI lost about $45 million.
It will be long time before ACI has any liquidity issues. As PRB, met and CAPP coal all tick upwards it will not be long before ACI is cash flow positive.
yes, there about 1000 drilled but unconnected wells. Apparently 400-600 are being connected each year, according to data from Chesapeake. Not all of them will be connected because some of them are dusters/duds. However, when they are gone or when the number being connected declines, production in the Marcellus takes a hit - a big hit. These drilled but unconnected wells account for about one quarter to one third of all new ng production from the Marcellus.
Zoltan Ban, an energy analyst, has published data showing that Marcellus natural gas production increases is slowing. This is largely due to something called legacy decline. The decline in ng production from existing wells is increasing faster than production from new wells is increasing.
The EIA is predicting that the Marcellus will increase production this year by 3-4 trillion. Zoltan Ban finds this highly improbable. Increases in Marcellus Shale production this year will be much less than that. And when legacy declines balance with productiopn increases there will be no increases in Marcellus ng production. Something that may happen this year or next year.
Outside of the Marcellus, natural gas production is declining at about 3 trillion a year. Marcellus production increases have negated that decline recently. However, when Marcellus ng production is stable or, OMG, decreases, we will have significant declines in total natural gas production.