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BIOLASE, Inc. Message Board

breakem1 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 7, 2016 11:51 AM Member since: Nov 11, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Bonds will tell the story

    by footnotereader Mar 7, 2016 9:58 AM
    breakem1 breakem1 Mar 7, 2016 11:51 AM Flag

    regardless if they breach the credit facility post redetermination (which mgt clearly dodged Qs on) throwing hail mary with scoop asset sales this thing is going under $1. The real tell on call as per my prior post is 2017. Scoop assets sale will boost hedging in 2017 demonstrating the pickle they are in as realized hedged prices arent close to current strip. They also warned production would fall off more in 4Q16 than 1Q16 also providing evidence that once hedging rolls off they are in deep trouble FCF wise.

  • Look all the realized prices WITH hedges are no where near current strip (not that is right) but even if Oil rises into the $40s and Ngas into mid $2.00s it is still a far cry from their 2016 realized hedged prices. Thus 2017 FCF will be severely limited and so will debt reduction...divy payment will be suspended indefinitely as model is broken even if they survive. Debt repayments will only be very gradual under senario of only modest rises in oil. Since we are in very low growth environment this seems most likely.

  • Reply to

    No q and a

    by justanoilguy Feb 26, 2016 9:06 AM
    breakem1 breakem1 Mar 1, 2016 4:23 PM Flag

    LOL the inherent conflict is the very reason these idiots are in the spot they are in......GD fools and now still mis leading inv as its clear this company is insolvent yet it pays dividends

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