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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

breezerwave 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2013 10:18 AM Member since: Aug 21, 2012
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  • Point being Achillion is undervalued and shall continue to head up. Market cap low so any successful drug could be extremely profitable. Also, eventually Achillion is going to get bought out. Who knows. Many buyouts come towards end of year. Achillon would be a cheap buy for a Gilead of AbbVie. They would get Achillion's drugs in the works, could combine with there portfolio's and also eliminate competition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IDIX Market Cap: 617.59M .. now.

    by jack_hemmer_rides_again Nov 13, 2013 2:57 PM
    breezerwave breezerwave Nov 14, 2013 6:35 AM Flag

    Totally agree. ACHN is totally undervalued and will go up. Pharmasset went for $11B and Achn could easily luck out and all it takes is one strong drug for it to make a lot of money. IDIX has had a history of failures and goes up solely as now it has been approved to do new trials. So what? they get to start the race over again. ACHN is way ahead with multiple drugs. The hold factor will work out as a dosage matter. The hiv drug booster boosts ACHN's drug it seems so less ACHN drug should be used. That will be the result. I can't believe ACHN stock price is so low but it will change. ACHN is going to be bought out some time. May take some time but it will happen.

    I mean too what if ACHN hit the jackpot and one of its trial drugs turned out to be more effective than anything Gilead had or Abbie Vie, etc. I understand the likelihood may be low but still anything is possible. Pharmasset lucked out. What I mean by my question is that ACHN has a lot of value. I could see Gilead taking it out (buyout) just to avoid any competitive threat and also to gain its portfolio. Certainly we have seen that in the hi-tech area where often competitors stop competing and instead buyout the smaller competition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How to Save $200 Billion and Cure Hepatitis C

    by waiting4kerx Oct 26, 2013 7:51 AM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 31, 2013 2:27 AM Flag

    Agreed. And one more potential buyer Abbott/Abbvie. Could be any of them but Gilead and Abbott most likely as they are the dominate players to date and would gain the most by additional portfolio and elimination of competitive threat. Gilead's drugs don't cure 100% all Hep C types so even Gilead can use more drugs in its portfolio to help add on and bring cure rates up to 100%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Oct 29, 2013 2:54 AM Flag

    Found this on a website for the government:

    "The pharmaceutical industry appears to place a high value on patents and drug
    companies frequently obtain patent protection and enforce patent rights. Patents permit
    the owner to exclude others from making, using, importing, or selling the patented
    invention.

    Patents are issued by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO),
    generally for a term of 20 years from the date of filing. However, certain circumstances
    permit extensions to the term of the patent, including delays in the initial administrative
    process at the USPTO.

    More significantly, the Drug Price Competition and Patent Term
    Restoration Act of 1984, commonly known as the “Hatch-Waxman” Act, permits
    limited extensions to compensate for market time lost during the drug approval process
    undertaken by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Independent of the patent
    term, the FDA may provide market exclusivity to pharmaceuticals meeting specific
    conditions under the Hatch-Waxman Act, the Orphan Drug Act, and the Best
    Pharmaceuticals for Children Act."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Should be trading at cash

    by michelles_wee_wee Oct 24, 2013 10:46 AM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 24, 2013 11:01 AM Flag

    Gilead's drug was not as effective in treating two less common forms of the disease that account for about 25 percent of cases in the U.S. Among those patients, sofosbuvir cured about 67 percent of patients who had not previously taken other hepatitis C drugs."

    Point being other drugs will still be needed and some of those drugs may be ones Achillion is working on. Achillion's market cap is so cheap Achillion could easily be taken out by a buy out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Oct 24, 2013 10:57 AM Flag

    Gilead is the most likely acquirer. BMS would be second but still may have cold feet due to Inhibitex fiasco. Gilead still needs drug porfolio that will help cure the other types of Hep C not met by its current drugs of the 10% etc of the main type of Hep C that still will not be cured without more treatment.

    Idenix has a terrible track record. Drug after drug created has completely died out as a failure.

    Vertex could also use partners but unlikely to be a buyer due to its smaller size and less available funds.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Equilibrium for ACHN = $5

    by jack_hemmer_rides_on Oct 17, 2013 3:51 PM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 24, 2013 10:51 AM Flag

    That issue is resolvable by using lesser dosages of the medicines due to the hiv booster which boosts the amounts of the drug in the blood and therefore less is needed. That is what Achillion needs to do. Propose that to the FDA and revise the study. Not just answer the FDA's questions on the existing study. Facts show that the drugs were boosted and therefor strong and had an effect on liver enzymes. Answer to lower the amount of drugs. This is common in the hiv field of medicines and boosters.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "For most of the last 20 years, the standard treatment for hepatitis C has involved a grueling one-year regimen of pills and injections that causes flu-like symptoms and cures less than half of patients. Then in 2011, the FDA approved two new drugs from Merck and Vertex Pharmaceuticals that raised the cure rate to about 65 and 75 percent, respectively, when combined with the older treatments.

    Gilead's once-a-day pill appears to push the cure rate even higher.

    In a company study of 327 patients with the most common form of the disease, 90 percent of participants had undetectable levels of the virus after 12 weeks of treatment. The form of the disease studied in the trial accounts for about 75 percent of hepatitis C cases in the U.S.

    Gilead's drug was not as effective in treating two less common forms of the disease that account for about 25 percent of cases in the U.S. Among those patients, sofosbuvir cured about 67 percent of patients who had not previously taken other hepatitis C drugs."

    Point being other drugs will still be needed and some of those drugs may be ones Achillion is working on. Achillion's market cap is so cheap Achillion could easily be taken out by a buy out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 11:14 AM Flag

    I don't know and was not aware of that. One is a vaccine for prevention of the disease. Sovaprevir is to try and cure the disease when already stricken by the disease. There are some drugs like Epivir and Viread which treat hiv and also treat and can cure Hep B. Once things are approved for certain diseases certainly other uses can be discovered.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Chances

    by bloomu_2004 Oct 1, 2013 10:36 AM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 10:55 AM Flag

    don't know by end of year but eventually Achillion will be bought out. Also, the current price drop really is too steep for the value of Achillion. It should pop up some time soon either today or in coming days and months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 10:49 AM Flag

    No, DVAX has a viable vaccine that will eventually make it to market. Also, word from EMEA could come out any time soon.

    As to the US, DVAX only needs to do more testing on additional participants. As to the FDA can't believe the one guy on the board tied to the DVAX competitor voted. Total conflict of interest.

    As to Achillion, it is not done. 4 pipeline Hep C products in trial. Sovaprevir works (100% 1b) and Achiilion has about $180M in assets as well as an established team. Achillion is also ramping up for manufacturing in Germany.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 10:43 AM Flag

    just as it has and is crashing down the tide will turn some time and it will soar up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    hehehe 2.75 coming hehehe

    by ticklemetingle Oct 1, 2013 10:00 AM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 10:05 AM Flag

    Well the lower it goes the more likely a buyout offer will come in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Got 200k to play, should I buy now?

    by bigtbigt15 Oct 1, 2013 9:49 AM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 10:02 AM Flag

    Spread your buying out. Diversify too. Odds are that the FDA hold will be lifted when Achillion agrees or proposes to reduce the dose with the booster. That should bump the stock price up. So too may the results due out by end of year. If investors expect the results to be superior to any other Hep C drugs out there then they are overestimating Achillion. But what Achillion does have is some good pipeline drugs that should be able to obtain some small market share and as such be very profitable since Achillion is such a small company.

    Whereas Gilead needs to take in $11B in sales just to recoop its Pharmasset purchase.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • breezerwave by breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 9:56 AM Flag

    A take over company for $282M market cap can come in and get $180M that Achillion has in assets and 4 pipeline drugs. Amazing the stock price is so low.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    will close at 2.75 today for sure

    by ticklemetingle Oct 1, 2013 9:05 AM
    breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 9:47 AM Flag

    Achillion has around $180M in assets like cash. So is stock pricing going to go below asset value? Does the market think Achillion's 4 drugs in the pipeline have no value?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 8:10 AM Flag

    I agree stock is worth more. But the value in the Hep C drugs is having multiple ones as a group to combine. That is where some other company like BMS could buy Achillion to then test different combinations and find out which ones work best together.

    If Achillion is considered weak many a weak competitor has sometimes taken over the market some dominate entity had had. Similarly, many times a dominate entity will take out a weak competitor (by this I mean buy it out) just to eliminate the competitor. I am sure Abbott, BMS, Vertex, Merck and Gilead have been paying close attention to every log reduction fact and more Achillion has reported and certainly are paying attention to recent pricing and newly released information. Vertex is a company with one very strong FDA Hep C drug but lacking a lot of other to match its drug with.

    Here is from last Spring. And point being Achilion is not out of the race.

    Merck’s Experimental Hepatitis C Drug Beats Victrelis
    By Simeon Bennett - Apr 23, 2013 1:08 PM PT

    Merck & Co. (MRK) said an experimental drug against hepatitis C was more effective than its Victrelis pill in a patient study.

    The virus was undetectable in the blood of as many as 92 percent of patients six months after they stopped the 12-week course of treatment with the drug, known as MK-5172, compared with 54 percent of those who received Victrelis, Whitehouse Station, New Jersey-based Merck said in a statement today. The trial included 332 people with the most common form of hepatitis C in the U.S., and all received standard therapy ribavirin in addition to either MK-5172 or Victrelis.

    Merck said yesterday that it’s entered a non-exclusive agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) to test MK-5172 in combination with Bristol’s daclatasvir.

    “The interim findings from this study provide clear direction for future larger trials designed to evaluate MK-5172 in novel, all-oral regimens for HCV,” Eliav Barr, Merck’s vice president of infectious diseases, said in today’s statement.

    Merck rose 1.5 percent to $48.63 at the close in New York.

    The drug caused increased levels of potentially harmful liver enzymes in some patients on the highest doses, who had their doses reduced as a result, Merck said.

    Victrelis was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in May 2011, the first hepatitis C drug in almost a decade.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • breezerwave by breezerwave Oct 1, 2013 7:44 AM Flag

    DVAX filed July 24, 2012 and decisions take 13 months on average. EMEA could follow the US and want more data and testing or give us a surprise sort of approval or limited approval. Regardless we should have some sort of decision soon and that will be helpful as DVAX can then take next steps forward.

    Based on DVAX job openings looks like DVAX is gearing up for manufacturing in Germany.

    "The Process Engineering group’s mission is to apply engineering expertise to implement, maintain, and improve Equipment, Facilities, and Utilities systems capabilities to enable reliable manufacture and release of drug substance. The department is tasked with the overall process Validation program, the CPV program and monitoring and trending of process data.

    The process engineer will work on cross-functional project teams, providing engineering leadership and support in the delivery of expense/capital projects and engineering services at the Düsseldorf Manufacturing Facility."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And certainly some of Achillion's portfolio can help treat Hep C and make money. Annual run rate around $40M a year if that as to costs. Sovaprevir trial with the hiv booster should eventually be able to get off FDA hold by Achillion agreeing to use a lower dose of Sovaprevir. As to the other trial, the fact is the drugs are effective and Achillion has room to adjust dosages.

    Achillion has now at least 4 Hep C trial drugs in the works and a bargain basement price. Seems to me this may spark a takeover some time soon. Some other large company with other Hep C drugs could integrate them with Achiilion's and find the best multiple solutions. A friend with Hep C used a BMS drug and he failed to cure after 6 months. He had to do treatment for several months after that but eventually cured. I don't see Achillion out of the competition.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • breezerwave breezerwave Sep 30, 2013 5:04 AM Flag

    $180 million or whatever they have now it not broke. You are trying to spread false information obviously.

    I assume too that you and/or your family don't have Hep C and thus are in no rush for multiple cures to be developed.

    From a US site:

    "Around the globe…

    Health experts estimate 180 million people have chronic hepatitis C worldwide.
    The hepatitis C virus was not discovered until 1989. A test to detect the virus in the blood was not developed until 1992.

    In the United States…

    Hepatitis C infection is the most common chronic blood borne infection in the U.S.
    Approximately 4.1 million persons, or 1.6% of the total U.S. population, are infected with hepatitis C.
    Of persons infected with hepatitis C
    85% will remain infected for life; of those:
    60 - 70% will develop chronic liver disease
    10 – 20% will develop cirrhosis (scarring of the liver)
    1 – 5% will develop liver cancer
    Liver failure from chronic hepatitis C is one of the most common reasons for liver transplants.
    In 2005, about 6,500 liver transplants were performed in the U.S.
    The number of liver transplants performed per year has been increasing steadily for more than 15 years.
    Chronic liver disease is the tenth leading cause of death among adults in the U.S., causing approximately 25,000 deaths annually.
    40% of deaths from chronic liver disease can be attributed to hepatitis C.
    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that deaths due to hepatitis C will double or triple in the next 15 to 20 years.
    From year 2010 through 2019, direct medical costs of HCV-related liver disease are projected to reach $10.7 billion."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

VRTX
64.17-0.22(-0.34%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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