Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board
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And these individuals would not have taken jobs at Achillion if they expected Achillion to go bust. They know their Hep C stuff and certainly this means they have faith in Achillion's trial portfolio. I see this all as a very good sign and regardless of some of the competition in the Hep C space, Achillion is very low priced as to ownership so any reasonably small sales of Hep C drugs should earn profits for shareholders and anything beyond that will be icing on the cake. Fact is that Achillion could certain end up taking a much larger percentage of the market should any of its drugs be best in class. I agree big pharma will take out Achillion some time. Also, as to market cap Achillion is cheaper than Idenix and Idenix has no drug close to being completed in trials.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Don't give false information. DVAX vaccine will eventually get approved. It is a vaccine to prevent Hep B so a person never gets Hep B. The Gilead drugs are and would be for people that fail to get the Hep B vaccine, get Hep B and then need to be cured. A totally different thing. Many people today don't cure from Hep B and there are not yet full treatments for all so people die of Hep B.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Agreed. In general buy out chances increased due to more data which means any management of a buyer company are taking less risk as they have the confidence of the results to rely on. As to buyout it is not out of the question and fact is that some of the big players like BMS are recognizing that their best strategy is to partner with every other Hep C drug company they can and get their drugs in trials so by final trials such drugs will be part of FDA approved combination. Sure there are exceptions like Gilead that want to go it alone but for that reason a company like Gilead could step in and make an offer for Achillion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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"Treatment naïve patients with genotype 1 chronic HCV infection, patients received a single dose of ACH-3102 at various doses (Group 1: 50 mg, n=4; 150 mg, n=4; 300 mg, n=4 or placebo, n=2) or placebo and were evaluated for baseline NS5A-resistant viral variants, which was present in the majority of patients. Based on the robust anti-viral effect observed in Group 1, a lower dose (25 mg, n=6) of ACH-3102 or placebo (n=3) was studied in Group 2."
It also means that by such test, Achillion will be seeing if the lower dose is just as effective as the higher dose.
Goal being to find the optimal dose to use with other Hep C drugs.
It also means the drug works.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Totally disagree and some of your arguments and facts are false. If there were concerns about the trial drugs the FDA would not be letting the trials go forward and would have pulled the plug like they did with Idenix and BMS.
Achillion's quarterly expenses average $12M a year so the company runs on expenses less than $60M a year.
It has multiple drugs but even should this one (1625) only be successful the company stands to make a lot of money and be profitable.
"Achillion's approach in developing new therapies for HCV is multi-fold: First, in a proprietary program targeting the HCV NS3 protease, Achillion is advancing sovaprevir (ACH-1625), a potent HCV inhibitor with an excellent preclinical safety profile, unique pharmacokinetics and once-daily dosing."
So what I mean is ACH-1625 should make it successfully through trials to FDA approval and then certainly can make over $100M a year and make the company profitable to shareholders. And point being should Achillion only take a small piece of the pie of the world market it can make money and provide shareholder value and returns.
But then there is the what if. What if Achillion gets lucky and one of its trial drugs really proves to be top of the line as to effectivity. Well then Achillion would have a Pharmasset like worth. No one really knows of all the Hep C players long run which ones will be best. Only time and trial will tell. Sure short term Gilead and Abbvie may take a strong portion of the market but long run doctors will use the most effective drugs that are easiest for patients to tolerate.
Given Abbvie's FIVE drug combo certainly Achillion is not out of the picture as being a fit to drug combos.
And really what is going to happen is Achillion will eventually be bought out.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Last half of message cut off but point being BMS is wanting to partner and in the case of Achillion due to the low market cap could simply acquire Achillion instead. The final drug combos that succeed will be those which are most effective in the shortest amount of time and with the least negative side effects.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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And BMS certainly will see that. Note news on BMS.
"Bristol-Myers Squibb signs up with another partner for daclatasvir, Merck & Co;"
Fact is declatasvir is a good Hep C drug but can't cure Hep C generally on its own. It needs to be partnered with other Hep C drugs just like all the other Hep C drugs need to be partnered.
One can google and see that Gilead and Abbvie are ahead as far at the trial drug not yet FDA approved race. Certainly, BMS is highly motivated to catch up. I would not be surprised if they don't have their eye on the recent Achillion data and considering an acquisition.
Achillion's Genotype 1B results here:
"ACH-3102 was deemed safe and well-tolerated with no significant adverse events reported. In all, 75% of patients (6 of 8) had HCV RNASentiment: Strong Buy
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Yes, positive. One can compare some of the results for Genotype 2 to some of Gilead's recently released results of its FISSION trial. The results are also in the 60% ranges.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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The news is good as to Achillion. The results show that Achillion's trial drugs are effective against Hep C and can help cure it. However, the results are not completely successful for all trial participants as Achillion's medications were not tried with sufficient other drugs. Below are some news regarding efforts by competitors. The net is now given further good results from Achillion, other pharma in Hep C will be further considering Achillion's drugs as drugs to add with their drugs and/or want to buy Achillion.
"AbbVie Inc's experimental hepatitis C treatment cured up to 96 percent of patients in just 12 weeks, according to data released on Tuesday, shoring up its position in the race to deliver a potent oral therapy for the serious liver disease.
AbbVie's treatment, a combination of five oral medications, is expected to be a close contender to a treatment in development by Gilead Sciences Inc. Analysts see the Gilead drug winning regulatory approval as early as 2014, with AbbVie close behind."
"Bristol-Myers Squibb unveiled data on Tuesday at the meeting from a smaller mid-stage study of its three-drug combination that does not include ribavirin. Its program is behind those of Gilead and AbbVie, but cure rates in excess of 90 percent and a relatively clean safety profile are expected to make it a formidable player in the field.
Bristol-Myers shares were up 1.2 percent.
Patients in the AbbVie Aviator study had the most common, but hardest to treat, genotype 1 variation of the infectious virus.
The AbbVie regimen included three experimental direct acting antiviral drugs that each attack a different target necessary for virus replication. The drugs were the protease inhibitor ABT-450, whose effect was boosted by a widely used antiviral called ritonavir; the polymerase inhibitor ABT-333, and ABT-267 from a class known as NS5A inhibitors. Those were given along with the older medicine ribavirin.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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This information was posted recently:
"Achillion announced that it has initiated an international Phase 2 clinical trial with sovaprevir and ACH-3102 for the treatment of genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C. The trial will evaluate an all-oral 12-week interferon-free regimen consisting of sovaprevir, ACH-3102, and mribavirin in patients with chronic HCV who have not received prior therapy."
If the FDA resources that manage clinical trlals had concerns about Achillion's trial drugs mentioned above like the FDA had with Idenix' two drugs, the FDA would not be allowing the trial above to go forward. Specifically, the FDA would not unreasonably put actual trial patients at risk. Obviously, the FDA does not see Idenix type risks with Achillion's drugs above.
The current FDA approved Vertex drug Incevik cures genotype 1 Hep C in most patients along with other drugs such as interferon and generally takes 6 months. But interferon is hard for many patients to take causing a lot of side effects. The FDA sees potential value and enough safety with Achillion's drugs mentioned above or else the trial would not be taking place. For investors in Achillion this should help reassure that there is value in the Achillion pipeline. Also, note the 12 week trial which all the drug companies are trying to achieve. Point being cutting the treatment window down whereby hopefully the virus is completely eliminated and does not relapse but in a shorter time period for the patient.
Per a site:
"The trial is expected to enroll patients at sites in the United States, Canada, New Zealand and Australia."
If medical professionals did not think there was a strong likelihood the trial would successful it would not be taking place in all these countries.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Yes, very much a take-over candidate by multiple larger companies working on Hep C drugs. The value in Achillion's is not only its portfolio of trial drugs but the ability to combine them with other Hep C drugs for good overall treatment combinations. There is also value in a bigger pharma acquiring Achillion to prevent competition and also to prevent Achillion from falling into the hands (meaning being bought by) of a competitor.
The only thing really holding such purchase back is BMS spent $2.5B a little over 12 months ago for Inhibitex and probably discovered problems with the trial drug in the spring of last year. The failure disclosed last summer. The Idenix had similarly problems killing off its two key Hep C drugs in trial. These events I am sure put more caution on the bigger companies to not buy too early on a trial company with Hep C drugs until the drugs are further down the pipeline.
That was bad news for Achillion investors as it meant/means waiting longer for a buyout out but also the death of 3 trial drugs (Inhibitex and Idenix's) for Hep C means remaining trial drugs like those of Achillion should be more valuable. Achiilon has several different types of Hep C drugs in the works and for those the odds of all of them failing is extremely low. The main thing with Achillion is the market cap is cheap and thus a current premium price tag buyout is also pretty cheap at $1B. Small compared to the $2.5B Inhibitex purchase or $11B purchase of Pharmasset by Gilead.
My expectation is Achillion will post some news soon, presumably it will be good and with good news the chance of a buyout increases.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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"This is a signal of major weakness within the corporation."
by sciortie •Apr 22, 2013 9:16 AMWrong. Vertex is going stronger and stronger every quarters. Revenues from CF franchise should be over $3B in several years. I expect more analyst to upgrade the stock. Just as Gilead is increase more and more Vertex can too.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Nice to see advocates of the company and ones with good info. Thanks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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And Vertex has been successful in bringing 2 drugs to market and that pattern will expand and continue. As to stock price it will increase when analysts further upgrade which they will be doing. And as to value of company it increases every day as management is building a strong company and that is what shareholders will own. Sorry, I don't short biotechs that are trying to save people's lives. Vertex made Hep C go from mainly not curable to mainly curable with their drug. I support this company 100% for the long run.
And as to cystic fibrosis, the CF organization that originally funded Vertex CF work certainly has not wasted their money.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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The only reason it has had negative earnings is building a strong company with many drugs in the pipeline to those two already FDA approved. And as to those latter such approval around the world will continue.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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One drug therapy for Hep C?
Name it or them?
What stage of trials?
Sorry, I have a friend in one of the trials for one of the companies pushing forward on new Hep C drugs and such trials was using several Hep C drugs and they did not work sufficiently enough in short enough time for that friend. Don't know how others fared but point being I just don't see any one drug therapy working as scientists are still working to get multiple drugs to work and the right mix. And by work, I also mean without relapse of the Hep C when the drugs are stopped.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Well it did not tank but even went up a bit higher. Moreover, if you were a CF patient I am sure you would be an advocate of Vertex for it to push its CF drugs forward as quick as possible instead of a negative drag.
Vertex obviously has the skills necessary to create effective treatments for CF and hopefully it will eventually be able to help all CF patients.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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You are totally wrong. Vertex brings in over $1B a year in revenue and will continue to do so. Have you not looked at its cash reserves? It has tons of cash. Don't falsely scare people with false statements of a secondary offering. Vertex would be profitable if not for the fact it has used monies to invest and build a strong company with multiple drugs, more in the pipeline and certainly in the long run even more to follow. Each shareholder owns a piece of the company and over the past several years the management of the company have built a very strong company.
I am not selling my shares. If you want to short all you want. I look forward to future large bumps up in share price including the extra bumps due to shorts getting caught in a squeeze. Vertex was 5% shorted at the time of the recent news.
As to the 18B someone mentioned that is not unreasonable at all. Current revenues at $1.5 billion a year. Revenues a few years from now could easily be $3M or more based on the latest scientific results. And who knows how the Hep C drugs in development will pan out and could be more icing on the cake.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Kalydeco is already FDA approved. Sales for that globally will continue to expand each and every quarter and then year by year. The new news proves the science for Vertex's second cystic fibrosis drug. There is no reason Vertex should not be bringing in at least $1B each and every year if not more and then as the pipeline matures and expands so too will sales. For a comparable biotech with a key drug all one has to do is look at Alexion as an example. Shorters can short all they want but should this stock mirror more a path like Alexion I can't see how long run that is going to work out. Vertex to me appears like a Gilead years ago or Celgene years ago. With 2 FDA approved drugs by Vertex certainly its scientists know what they are doing. Amgen started years ago with one key drug and then built an empire. Frankly, I like any biotechs that are working to help save people's lives and make people's lives better. I think it is bad karma to short against such companies. I mean are the shorters praying for these drugs to fail so the patients can die earlier. Sort of sick thinking.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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We can see what happens. Vertex was dropping recently but as of yesterday after-hours skyrocketing. The science for Achillion's pipeline appears to be solid and Achillion's market cap low (the latter meaning a good buy). My expectation is Achillion's news will be positive and in addition one more step forward to what will eventually be FDA approval.
Sentiment: Strong Buy