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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

brendabreeze77 507 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Oct 11, 2013
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  • brendabreeze77 by brendabreeze77 Aug 7, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    Explosion in recorded arrivals of foreign tourists to popular destinations in Greece in July in spite of losses in Russian tourists falling 7.2%, or 15,887.

    In July, arrivals from abroad increased by 21.9% to 1.18 million. Domestic arrivals increased by 23%, reaching 586,947.

    For seven months through July ,arrivals from abroad increased by 19.3%, or by 870,008, reaching 5.39 million.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Mario Draghi’s newest stimulus tool will hand banks more than 700 billion euros ($950 billion) of cheap funding, economists say.

    The ECB president’s targeted lending program for banks will boost credit for the real economy as planned, and at the same time help keep the financial system flush with cash, according to the Bloomberg Monthly Survey of 45 economists.

    The ECB has identified loans to companies and households as a key weakness in the euro area’s fragile recovery. The so-called TLTRO program, part of a wider package of measures announced in June, offers as much as four years of low-cost funding tied to bank lending that Draghi said could ultimately provide as much as 1 trillion euros.

    Full article is at goo DOT gl SLASH 8btfCR

    Sentiment: Hold

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 7, 2014 6:36 AM Flag

    I tend to agree with a news reporter who said the current market corrections are due more with key professionals putting pressure on the market in order to profit by the loss of others and create springboards for rising to new levels.

    JP Morgan noted option markets show interest in Greek shares remains strong as the data for the global economy and trade indicates improvement in the next 12 months. Of course options are not available for ADRs.

  • indicating a big improvement from last year’s surplus of general government's 590 million.

    Mr. Staikouras, Assoc. Minister of Economics, says the big challenge now is to transform the dynamic stabilization and sustainable growth with social cohesion. Goo DOT gl SLASH qkakFz

    The OECD defines social cohesion: A cohesive society works towards the well-being of all its members, fights exclusion and marginalisation, creates a sense of belonging, promotes trust, and offers its members the opportunity of upward mobility.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The Autumn will be hot!

    by brendabreeze77 Aug 5, 2014 4:31 AM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 7, 2014 6:24 AM Flag

    It’s reported the market feels convinced of the government's credibility and the advantage in eliminating the troika, evidenced today by market participants and private discussions. Note that so far this a.m. Eurobank is up in Athens! Yesterday this was one of the factors putting pressure on the market.

  • Widespread concern of retaliation ordered by Putin for the sanctions imposed by the West, and also for the possibility of military conflict with Ukraine.

    Markets are also down in Frankfurt, London, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and China. Moves are more volatile in Greece due to smaller market size

    Sentiment: Hold

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 6, 2014 12:52 AM Flag

    Hi Maria, I don't recall Nara's prior post, but banks seem to be changing their recommendations a lot lately. And some have said the they trade the opposite from their ratings. My info came from bankingnews.gr if you care to check it out.

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 6, 2014 12:26 AM Flag

    Fp, sorry I didn’t have time to answer you earlier; I will briefly comment as it’s late. Simon Nixon of WSJ as written extensively about the IMF’s polarized political opinion about how to ensure Greece’s recovery. Previously IMF officials claimed Greek banks faced a substantially larger capital shortfall than that identified by the BofG and BlackRock stress tests. Investors were satisfied by BlackRock’s work to inject #$%$3 billion of new capital into two major lenders and disregarded the IMF’s figures. It may take some tough negotiating with the IMF this go round, and of course no one can predict the results.

    At the end of 1Q14, Eurobank and Nat’l both had 16.2 B NPLs, which are lower than those at Alpha and Piraeus. The central bank is again planning to hire BlackRock as a special consultant to assist in the liquidation of troubled lenders and to propose optimal practices aimed at accelerating the recovery rate. Also, there has been discussion about an FSF supported NAMA (National Asset Management Agency) as was created in Ireland, which the BofG Governor may, eventually, agree to.

    In addition, Eurobank may consider selling a few of their approx 68 non-core assets if additional capital is needed although Watsa has promised to cover any shortfall; they have businesses in real estate, insurance, accounting, consulting, mutual fund management, tax services, etc. And the deferred tax assets will help. Following the test the ECB proposes the banks will have two weeks to come up with a plan to plug any capital shortfall and up to nine months to raise the money if needed.

    Earlier today in Handelsblatt newspaper, Christina Sakellariou of FSF was optimistic and was quoted ”Even if there are additional borrowing will be manageable.” And Yiannis Papadimitriou reports in The Daily Mail citing banking sources that ”there are also those who simply pretend weakness service to get rid of their loans.“

    Sleep tight! (Ha – I looked up that phrase to be sure no other meaning)

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 5, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Thanks, I don't even know what a hack investor is, but evidently you're probably in better shape right now by not actively trading.

  • for several days. As long as a stock doesn’t drop outside the band, it usually begins to move back up. However, I'm a little concerned about the upcoming earnings report.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 5, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Correction, Eurobank did not close lower than all the others. It was down 5% on 21 million volume at 0.323 euros, parity with U.S. is $ 0.216. Piraeus Bank was down 5.96%, Nat’l -2.58% and Alpha –0.83%.

    I recall that Eurobank and Alpha can sometimes make big moves. On July 24, Eurobank went up 5.57%.

    I read on Bankingnews.gr that the bond market feared the troika pulling out of Greece. Maybe this reaction has spilled over to stocks as well. If so, it's possible this initial response is temporary.

    Is anyone reading this message board? I thought there would be others expressing their thoughts with the stock dropping today.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • after yesterday's Credit Suisse and BofA Merrill Lynch degraded the banks to neurtral, cutting the price target in view of the stress tests of the ECB.

    Well it’s no wonder Credit Suisse isn’t in the best of spirits. Germany’s financial regulator, BaFin, is extending investigations into alleged interest-rate manipulation at Deutsche Bank German magazine Der Spiegel reported.

    However, why is EUROB down more than the rest? I cannot find any new news to explain it.

  • brendabreeze77 by brendabreeze77 Aug 5, 2014 4:31 AM Flag

    beginning with Sept talks in Paris to discuss dismantling the troika and letting Greece handle its own programs. Greece wants more emphasis on growth and employment along with focusing on budget savings. And Brussels is considering allowing Athens to pursue its own plan to bolster the economy. The Greeks have until October to present a blueprint.

    Scrapping the troika would mark the end of a model of enforcing economic reform in Athens that many in Greece and the European Parliament have criticized as heavy handed, likened by some in Greece to the German “N” occupation.

    One potential benefit of the Greeks owning their own program could be to get acceptance at home for economic reforms, if they are not seen to be imposed from outside. In return for meeting milestones by implemented reforms, Greece would be rewarded with debt relief, such as extending the time for repayment, rather than granting additional loans.

    Officials in Athens are hopeful another bailout can be avoided. "We don't want a new austerity program. We don't want new money” one senior Greek government official told Reuters. "We are committed to reforms ... but we don't want a knife to our neck because this hurts the ownership of these reforms," said the official, adding that the idea of staggered debt relief for reform could work so long as the monitoring 'has no similarities' to the troika. Quarterly policing by the troika could be replaced by a special task force from the European Commission with biannual check-ups. Ekathimeriini, 8/4/14,

    URL is goo DOT gl SLASH PjYtxo (replace dot and slash w/ symbols)

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 4, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't b/c I trade at TDA, and no stocks are available from foreign exchanges. Anyway when the euros are converted to US$ it's actually still a little below US price.

  • Ticker: PLUN.GR

    Sentiment: Buy

  • According to Corporate Finance textbooks, how detrimental a capital share increase is to its s/holders depends on many factors besides the volume of new shares, such as the price of new shares entering the market. FCEL issued shares at $1.25 per share. And, as stated by FCEL, proceeds of $29.4 M from the public offering of 25,300,000 shares on Jan 23 2014 were to be used for project development. Evidently Investors had faith projects would follow because the PPS didn’t decline.

    During the first quarter of 2014, the Company sold 2,704,200 shares, respectively of the Company's common stock AT PREVAILING MARKET PRICES through periodic trades on the open market and raised approximately $3.7 million, net of fees.

    For the three months ended January 31, 2013, 108,008 shares were issued under the ESPP at a per share cost of $0.79. ESPP is a shareholder approved incentive plans for employees

    During 1Q14, $15.0 million of outstanding principal was converted by Note holders and the Company issued 9,677,425 shares of common stock. The aggregate fair value of these derivatives at Jan 31, 2014 and Oct 31, 2013 is $2,7 M and $4.7 M, respectively. As a result of the Note conversions 2,344,080 shares were issued, and a payment of $0.3 M was made to settle the make-whole payment. The Notes are convertible into shares of the Company's common stock at a conversion rate of 645.1613 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of convertible notes, equivalent to a conversion price of approximately $1.55 per share of common stock plus a "make-whole" payment in regard to interest.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Some textbook thoughts on dilution

    by brendabreeze77 Aug 2, 2014 9:42 PM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 2, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    The reduction in equity rights of the s/holder that neither puts in nor takes out funds on the occasion of a capital increase is called real dilution. This is when the s/holder does not participate in a capital increase and his percentage interest declines. There may be dilution of control – that is, reduction in the percentage equity interest of the s/holder, whenever he does not subscribe to an issue of new shares in proportion to his current shareholding in the absence of subscription rights.

    However, the dilution of power and control should be distinguished from the financial dilution that MAY occur in the short term with a decline in share value. (Guess decrease in PPS also depend on the price of new shares entering the market) Goo DOT gl SLASH FvD1i5

  • brendabreeze77 by brendabreeze77 Aug 2, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    First, it’s important to be aware company managers and s/holders are not always in harmony with each other about the benefits/effects of a capital share increase. In practice, perception often entails a temporary reduction in informational asymmetry and resorts to agency theory. Agency theory does not usually address any clear problems and may be excessively narrow, focusing only on stock price. The theory is often empirically invalid and rarely explains actual events. It’s important to look at all the ramifications of dilution to avoid a narrow point of view,. Goo DOT gl SLASH qls38a

    A capital increase is analyzed as a sale of new shares at a certain price. If that price is equal to the true value of the share, there is no creation of value, nor is any current shareholder made worse off. This is an obvious point that is easily lost sight of in the analysis of financial criteria.

    A capital increase will change earnings per share instantaneously. However, it’s important to consider how a company will make use of new capital to bring value to the company. In the long term, EPS dilution should normally be offset by the earnings generated by the investment financed by the capital increase. The increase in equity allows a parallel increase in debt and thus in the company’s overall financial resources. A capital increase may increase a company’s financial power considerably. Goo DOT gl SLASH FvD1i5 “The Vernimmen” a Corporate Finance textbook edited by investment bankers at BNP Paribas...

  • Eurobank Properties (EUPRO) issued 40M+ new shares on Feb 6 2014. The following excerpt from Eurobank’s 2013 annual report explains Fairfax’s purchase:

    “Pursuant to the aforementioned investment agreement, on 21 January 2014, Fairfax’s subsidiaries acquired from Eurobank the 33,888,849 pre-emption rights regarding the share capital increase of Eurobank Properties for a total consideration of #$%$19,994,420.91, i.e. #$%$0.59 per pre-emption right. The share capital increase of Eurobank Properties was fully covered through the payment in cash and amounted to Euro193m. As a result, on 6 February 2014, 40,260,000 new common shares were issued.”

    I don’t know terms of the pre-emption rights, but 103M euros for 40.260M shares equals 4.79 euros per share paid. Prior to the issuance on Feb 5, PPS was 7.15 and the next day 7.33; Friday it closed at 9.30.

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Aug 1, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    Where is this info coming from? It’s been reported PR wouldn’t agree to settle outside of court. Well, women are guilty of changing their mind. haha

ORI
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