I don’t know – I’m still learning but I think a single and double doji don’t have much significance unless they occur in a strong pattern to indicate a reversal. And the pattern since Feb 2 doesn’t appear to have developed an uptrend or downtrend pattern - just trending implying indecision. We shall see. I haven’t found a site providing much info re the double doji. Actually another small hammer formed today.
Finito, just looking at the numbers. What is the OCED insinuating for the $20.5 billion? Are the funds to be used for training/educating the unemployed? Why didn’t OCED explain? Surely, they didn’t mean 32,031 euros would be “given” to each of the 640 K just to provide income. Any ideas?
I think it was a hammer on Feb 5. A hammer may mark the bottom and create a new support level. It was 4.70 on Feb 5, and it hasn’t gone below 4.70 since that day.
Programs for the employment of 73,000 young Greeks started in January according to Labor Minister Vroutsis. Also, since Germany wants to offer vocational education to Greeks, evidently the Germans believe there will be new jobs offered to a well trained workforce.
Perhaps that’s why Greece was reclassified to the MSCI Emerging Market Index. The Emerging Economy Report defines Emerging Economies as those "regions of the world that are experiencing rapid informationalization under conditions of limited or partial industrialization. Hopefully Greece is beginning to “emerge” or gradually improve.
Employment should begin to show improvements soon. The World Bank Group Report in Oct 2013 rated Greece a top improver in starting a business Businesses are relocating to Greece. SAP, one of the largest software companies in the world, recently relocated its south Europe HQ in Greece. The Development and Competitiveness (OCED) Deputy Minister Mitarakis said Greece will receive 20.5 B euros which could create 640,000 jobs in the country. See “Greece to set up corporate bond exchange for SMEs, Capital.gr, 2/5/14.
Per ekathimerini, the VAT refunds are due to be paid in 462 to 650 days; therefore these refunds will not come out of this year’s budget surplus. The primary surplus was 811 M euros in January alone, indicating VAT refunds will not be a big drain on profits. See Greek budget primary surplus doubled in January; Capital gr
Yes, NBG passing the stress test has been a big topic on this message board. It's nice to be able to go directly to the source for info.
“However, thanks in part to the reserve option mechanism, a government policy that allows banks to hold some of their required reserves in foreign exchange or gold rather than the Turkish lira, the banks may be reasonably well-hedged against depreciation. In total, the banking sector holds dollar reserves of $33.7bn under the scheme, according to figures released by the central bank just over a month ago.” See “Turkish banks: how safe are they, really?” Ft 2/4/14
Thanks for your input!
Hi fp, did you read my post re Finansbank? No one commented - I thought it was significant info because of concern that Blackrock stress test would reveal NBG didn't have adequate Tier I assets after lira decline. However, report shows Finansbank hedged against the lira decline to protect assets.
Very funny - Aloha ahiahi (I'm too sleepy to find the explanation point)
Investors' REACTION to the tightening of US monetary policy has particularly affected a group of EM countries with current account deficits. These were originally known as the "Fragile 5" - India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, but have since been joined by Argentina, Russia and Chile to make the "Fragile 8". See “Handful of Large EU Banks Exposed to Fragile 8” 2/11/14
Explanations Related to Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk As of 9/30/13, the net foreign currency exposure of the Bank (Finansbank) is TL 222,277 SHORT position…. The long off balance sheet position… is related with the FC/TL swap transactions entered into with banks and customers. The Bank used these transactions to manage foreign currency liquidity risk and to hedge itself from interest rate risk. The Bank enters into foreign currency forward transactions to decrease foreign currency position risk. The Bank also engages in foreign currency and Eurobond buy-sell option transactions.
Explanations Related to Interest Rate Risk: The management of the Bank follows the interest rates in the market on a daily basis and revises interest rates of the Bank when necessary. The Bank… also hedges itself from interest rate and maturity risk.
For mitigating the credit risk, cash and cash equivalents and high-credit-quality debt instruments are used.
Write-off policy: Unrecoverable non-performing loans under legal follow-up, for which 100% provision is provided.
As of September 30, 2013, the Finansbank’s unconsolidated capital adequacy ratio is 17.65%.
As of September 30, 2013, 77.23% of the Bank’s shares are owned by NBG, 9.68% by NBG Finance (Dollar) PLC, 7.90% by NBGI Holdings B.V. and 5.00% by International Finance Corporation (“IFC”). The Bank is a National Bank of Greece S.A (NBG) Group entity.
Source: Finansbank Review Report for the interim period Jan 1 – Sept 30, 2013
Okay - very good coaching! It reminds me what a guy who I dated once said – you have to tell doctors and lawyers what to do (can’t remember exact words). He had been married to a doctor so guess he knew what he was talking about.
Greek banks have adopted a new corporate loan policy offering support to the strongest businesses only. Overindebted businesses amount to 45% of all businesses and will probably end up filing bankruptcy as they have obsolete operations and are uncompetitive. Provopoulos said issuing them loans that they do not deserve doesn’t benefit the economy and is damaging for the healthy businesses. Another 30% of companies may stand on their own feet through mergers, loan reductions, etc. The remaining 25% are the robust companies with high productivity, an export-oriented character with rational management and are the main hope for the country’s corporate future. See “Cash to be channeled to healthy firms” ekathimerini Jan 17, 2014
Why didn’t the banks follow these basic, sound principles before? Perhaps education has been weak in Greece? According to German magazine der Spiegel, rather than being limited to financial aid, Germany wants to offer vocational education to Greeks. See Der Spiegel: Ready for extensive concessions to Athens Berlin, ekathimerini 2/2/14
I’m reading the tea leafs (ha) (candlesticks) and waiting to see any significance of the hammer that formed on Feb 5. After the last hammer that formed on Nov 19, NBG continued moving up for 8 days (with 2 intervening down days) until Nov 29 closing at 6.29 for a 16% gain. Avg volume during those 8 days was 3.85 M. At least the volume is low today on declining price. MACD histogram turned positive 2 days ago.
250 hedge funds account for over 70% of daily transactions in the Athens stock exchange. The funds channeled from abroad are centered on 15 listed companies. These figures do not include the four systemic banks. By ANESTIS NTOKAS, Kathimerini, 2/9/14 Perhaps stats on investments in the banks will eventually be released.
Yes, I guess you could call it egostistical. Stop taking my bullishness personal! I’d be posting on this board even if you were not here. I guess you may feel I’m trying to challenge you b/c we initially supported each other’s bullishness In NBG and joined the board about the same time. And you did say if I wanted to post all bullish statements it was okay. And the board is more interesting with many different points of view – just it’d be nice if everyone didn’t get so offended. Anyway – got to get busy – it’s supposed to snow again!