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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

brendabreeze77 546 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 minutes 18 seconds ago Member since: Oct 11, 2013
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  • Well here we go again with the IMF trying to maintain their control, insisting on providing additional funds with austerity measures attached. Previously IMF officials claimed Greek banks faced a substantially larger capital shortfall than that identified by the Bank of Greece and BlackRock. The IMF provided no evidence for its assessment, which was disregarded by foreign investors who were sufficiently satisfied by BlackRock and proved it by injecting new capital into the Greek banks.

    The IMP has a polarized global political opinion over the way to ensure Greece’s recovery. IMO more austerity measures now could create trouble for Samaras’ reelection. An intl renowned economics professor from NY University advises that restructuring debt by reducing the fixed rate and extending the repayment period to 75 yrs would reduce the net present value of the debt by 50%. That sounds like a long time, but it’s dealing with a country and not an individual. Following is excerpt from dated 5/30/14:

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 May 30, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    As expected, at the Governing Board of the International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington tonight, a third loan will be combined with a new austerity program "pushes" the Greece International Monetary Fund, according to the evaluation report presented today the Board of the Fund under the approval of the dose of 3.5 billion euro to our country. Factors of Treasury estimate that the dose should normally be approved by the time Athens has fulfilled all outstanding issues and prerequisites were related to that amount. Consequently, interest shifted to the content of the report which will focus on coverage of two "twin gaps" from next year, the financial and budget. The text of the report will be a comprehensive report that Greece will require additional funding from June 2015 onwards. This is because experts (in) Washington do not consider it possible to raise additional capital from the markets. (IMF says) even if it becomes possible to raise these funds borrowing costs of Greece from the markets are greater than that calculated in the report of the Greek debt sustainability. Moreover, consistent view of Fund money is that the FSF should be held for the needs of banks (that considers the results of stress tests of the Bank of Greece is optimistic) and that therefore the best solution would be for Greece to receive a small - soft- loan from the euro…. According to the information, in this "account" includes equivalent measures required by the troika to cover the "hole" of 500 million euro implement the decision of the Council of State (CoS), which held unconstitutional the cuts made to the remuneration of uniformed. Towards this end the Fund is expected to ask the Greek side to continue to implement the agreed, but to extend certain fiscal measures such as the extension of the special contribution by 2016 and the elimination of favorable tax regimes, despite the fact that the government dared to say 'no' election.

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 May 30, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    IMF - Approved dose of 3.41 billion for Greece (cont.)
    Another interesting point in the report will be proposals for debt relief. The feeling that leave statements strains of the international organization is that the IMF will back again scenario "haircut" of the Greek debt, considering that the extension of the maturity of the loans of the eurozone and the EFSF and the new rate cut proposed by the German side (does) not solve the problem of sustainability.

  • Reply to

    Huge Volume in Athens

    by red_tsar May 30, 2014 11:21 AM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 May 31, 2014 6:05 AM Flag

    Congrats on your Schwab deal! I’ve called and talked with their knowledgeable reps when I couldn’t get an answer from TD Ameritrade.

    Well, you’re ahead of me with groceries bought. Preparing the meals and freezing for quick fixin’ is a great idea – ha, gives you more time to watch the market later! Tonight I got junk food from Burger King and watched Bill Meier. Rych postponed travel to Ohio b/c Gia wanted to get her 2nd and final (hopefully) chemo before he arrived. Of course Rych wanted to be by her side during her treatment as she is not near relatives. He had tried to reassure her that he realized she would not be at her best. Chemo caused her bouts of fever and nausea.

    Yes, she’ll probably keep him pretty busy. He said the horses don’t require much attention in the summer as they graze freely. He plans to do the internet radio from her home. We’ll see how demanding she is of his time and attention. Lately she’s kept him on the phone quite a bit, and he’s felt pressured. Anyway, without a degree in broadcasting I don’t know if he’ll have much of a future unless he gets lucky. Yesterday he got angry with the Rock365 owner b/c he hadn’t done as promised, and now he’ll probably go back to a former station (PureSteele) who has promised to allow him to carry his own sponsors. Having sponsors is what brings in revenue. However, Catch 22: PureSteele doesn’t reach as many people with only two servers – Rock365 had eight.

    I’ve tried to be supportive but really find it hard to accept some of his choices. In particular, I think it’s important to be established career-wise before pursuing a soul mate. But maybe I’m just generationally out-of-touch or just think differently. Have to get Red’s opinion about that. Ha - Maslow's hierarchy of needs may be to blame.

    Time for beddy-bye. Happy weekend to you as well, and I hope Charles stays in good health!

  • Reply to

    Huge Volume in Athens

    by red_tsar May 30, 2014 11:21 AM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 May 31, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Yes, Greece is a beautiful country! I’d love to vacation there. Do you have the recipe for Greek egg chicken soup? A b/f thought I was being too laissez-faire – maybe so – ha, anytime I need some help parenting I know I can call on him! Sometimes a male figurehead helps.
    Speaking of males, I had a friend request on fb – don’t know how he found me as I’m hardly ever on it. Ha – if we were only as young as our picture presents! I see a prior friend now has a picture – quite a handsome guy!

    Sorry your post evaporated, terrible to have time wasted. I’ve had my posts vanish when I remove and reenter them. I believe it helps to wait a few minutes before reentering the message. Also, if it’s a lengthy post, I type it in Word and copy it to YMB.

    Will check out One Kings Lane sometime. I used to love to shop – now it seems I spend most of my time studying the stock market. lol Well I am heading to the mall shortly as Rych needs a new pair of slippers. Thanks for the coaching!

  • Reply to

    My "fair value."

    by furphyharuspex May 31, 2014 12:14 PM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 May 31, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    Yes, determining the evaluation of a bank is different from determining the evaluation of other businesses. It is more complex and, according to multiple sources, differing regulatory requirements for different countries and types of banks have to be considered. For instance, you should not compare Credit Suisse or Deutsche Bank to U.S. banks, because they’re not US-based. A European bank that is required to set aside more in provisions for bad loans will report lower income and have higher P/E ratios. (going shopping now so cannot respond further)

  • Reply to

    My "fair value."

    by furphyharuspex May 31, 2014 12:14 PM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 1, 2014 6:04 AM Flag

    I beg your pardon – you tell me to take up knitting? The statements I just made have been expressed by “real” experts in the field of bank analysis, i.e. Aswath Damodaran, professor of corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University; and others from BreakingIntoWallStreet, a website for training in inv. banking: Brian DeChesare, investment banker & graduate of Stanford.; B J Hansen who received his MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business; Ed #$%$, a graduate from Harvard Business School. What makes you an expert in bank analysis? You’ve stated you’re a retired chemist. I prefer to accept the principles of bank evaluation from those who specialize in that field.

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 1, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    According to professional banking investment analysts at BreakingIntoWallStreet, “Instead of traditional metrics like revenue and EBITDA, you list the metrics and multiples that are relevant to a bank: EPS, Return on Equity (ROE), Book Value (BV), P / E, P / BV, and so on.”

    From Stern, NY Uni: “To value the equity in book value, you would subtract out the deposits, debt and other claims on the bank. This approach has merit if you are valuing a mature bank with little or no growth potential but it has two significant limitations. First, it does not assign any value to expected future growth and the excess returns that flow from that growth. Second, it is difficult to apply when a financial service firm enters multiple businesses that prove to be difficult to value because the assets in each business – insurance, commercial banking, investment banking, portfolio management – would need to be valued separately, with different income streams and different discount rates. In emerging markets, financial service firms tend to have an even higher profile and account for a larger proportion of overall market value than they do in the United States.”

    Red also uses book value rather than revenue in his evaluations but he also has emphasized the potential for growth in emerging markets and the competitive advantage of the Greek banks after absorbing smaller banks. (busy day -running to Lowe’s now to repair screened patio)

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 1, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    You evidently didn’t absorb anything from my post. Why would I “plug in the numbers” to your calculations when they are based on revenue which, according to experts, should not be used for bank evaluations. And again, you refer to Bank of America, a U.S.-based bank that should not be used for comparison to EU banks.
    Determining fair value of EU banks involve many factors, not all of which are numbers, which I don’t have the time to discuss with you now. Come to think of it, some of these factors have already been discussed anyway. As you have said, why should I waste my time. I’m sure others on the MB have already comprehended enough from what has already been posted.

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 1, 2014 11:15 PM Flag

    Perhaps YOU can’t read – I said determining fair value of EU banks involve many factors, not all of which are numbers.
    However, here’s one numerical component of fair value – a bank’s loan portfolio, which is an asset (debt to a bank is what steel is to Toyota). According to Stern Uni., “Fair market rate can be estimated by either getting the loan portfolio rated by a ratings agency or by measuring the potential. The loan portfolio has a fair market value that exceeds its book value because the bank is charging an interest rate that exceeds the market rate.” Assigning FV to a bank is not an easy task. I’ll leave it to the professionals, thank you.

  • That’s a lot more than normal – maybe we will see some hi volume today. Somethings gotta give - if no one sells, those buyers are going to have to move it up.

  • Reply to

    Hi Maria!

    by billiosi Jun 1, 2014 7:10 PM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 2, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Billi, I have no idea where the bottom will be - I thought it had hit bottom but it continues to go down whenever a couple other solar stocks are down. They missed the analyst estimate for Q1. It will go back up eventually, but if you don't want to tie up your $, this stock isn't a good idea now. I hope you didn't buy it! I only have a small holding that I'm letting sit.

  • "Our long term goal is to have Eurobank profitable again.. We are convinced that Eurobank and its management may exceed expectations and present the first successful example of recovery in the Greek banking system after the crisis." The Fairfax is a cornerstone investor with 400 M euros invested in EUROB. Fairfax Financial Holdings was founded in 1985 and has around $25 billion in assets under management

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Stifel will Stifle the Shorts

    by prenzie Jun 2, 2014 11:55 AM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 3, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    Yes, Magnum Hunter Resources Raised to "Buy" From Hold by Stifel Nicolaus yesterday. .

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 3, 2014 10:59 PM Flag

    Since today was a win for the U.S. solar industry, I’m surprised SolarWorld (down 1.93%), FirstSolar and Sune aren’t up today.

  • brendabreeze77 by brendabreeze77 Jun 4, 2014 7:02 AM Flag

    (hide DOOTmySLAASH drw) list PTBV for NBG at 1.5. Following the formula, PTBV = share price divided by tangible book value per share, NBG’s PTBV ratio is 2.39, i.e., 3.59 divided by 1.5. This disagrees with Buchanan’s ratio of 5.3. It’d be fun, fun, fun to point this out to him. Double dare you! (guess he’s too busy to do Eurobank or he forgot how to translate 1Q14 report to English) :)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The order will be the first of its kind for ReneSola America, as the non-Chinese modules are being manufactured by the Company's OEM factory using non-Taiwanese cells. SOL was chosen b/c of their specialized anti-reflective coating that maximizes clean energy production.

    Kevin Chen, president of ReneSola America stated: "This order exemplifies ReneSola's commitment to the U.S. market and our ability to adjust quickly to changing market dynamics through our OEM strategy. With the recent announcement of preliminary tariffs on modules imported from China to the United States, we are able to take an early initiative to keep our prices competitive by leveraging our global OEM network. We believe this approach is pivotal, and will be a key differentiator between ReneSola and our competitors."

    Yes, s0larizer2014, let Renesola take the entire U.S Market! Now if the traders just have enough sense to read the writing on the wall!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Of course no trading until market opens.
    For comparison, Alpha has 2500 bids and 2500 asks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 4, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    Well ample bids below current price - looks like no one is selling to allow those buyers to get in low. It continues to move up in Athens (EUROB) on high volume. Eventually buyers will move in to EGFEY to reach parity with EUROB.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Red, SA authors

    by brendabreeze77 Jun 4, 2014 7:02 AM
    brendabreeze77 brendabreeze77 Jun 4, 2014 10:31 PM Flag

    * I meant following the formula for PTBV "ratio"

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