For some board bully-cretins this is where one declares their supreme foresight by posting the obligatory 'I told you so'. I didn't expect the drift in one day - but that's supportive in some sense.
I won't do that 'victory dance', however. I will objectively point out that on low float stocks the market makers are tasked with keeping all stock liquid - and sell shares both long and short - needing to square up at days end. Gaps interrupt that process and it behooves them to 'adjust'. Read up on market makers if you are interested in swing trading. Swing trading exists because there are opportunities for even greater gains. Simple need filled - and opportunity for investors to 'scalp' here and there.
As I said, this time I did not sell any shares - but I did snag a few more shares at $2.05 with a very tight stop loss. I was out at meetings and set the GTC yesterday - not expecting to hit it - but guessing based on experience. It isn't guaranteed to hold or rise - ergo the tight stop loss.
But I still sit on many more shares for having 'played' the last swing. Yet, as much as this move down today might support the notion of 'gap filling' . . . there IS a gap from Nov. 4-5 at $1.46 to $1.55 and if volume flags terribly - or less enthusiastic response to earnings appears - that gap would typically fill. I don't see that happening, personally.
But news like a renewed contract like we witnessed gives more cover over that existing gap - and credibility to the flip side of the discussion that 'not all gaps fill'. That's a good lesson in investing - both examples - and doesn't necessitate a daily monitoring of every move or swing when you realize gaps CAN fill and you don't always have to sell at the low (we all have) from the 'drift and panic' approach/mindset
That might be, Nonny . . . and I don't discount your skepticism. But if you look at daily pricing of any stock you will see that the closing price today will almost always see the price the next day at or below that closing price. That's an 'opening gap' and the market makers will drop the price 99% of the time to close that open gap.
I just can't ignore statistics like that. But to your point, yes, ignoring gaps isn't all bad either.
But if the stock sticks at a certain price like it is now, that's support and we'll see that replace the old $1.86-$1.90 range of support we saw recently - leaving the 1.45 and 1.25 . . . and lower numbers this PPS clustered around as distant support . . . TA is hindsight - but it sure can help with foresight.
As I said, I didn't sell this move. If it dips I will buy lower. I have a GTC set at $2.10 - and we will see if that gap fills. If not, I'm happy either way . . .
Typically the market makers want 'at the open' gaps closed. The one at $2.11 would logically close at some point unless this goes parabolic - which seldom happens. Once released from that 'magnet' this can resume its upward trend. Gaps don't always close - but on low floaters they are volatile enough to do so. Then sellers get itchy and sell when momo drifts it lower on less volume. If I haven't sold the peak, I rebuy there or a few pennies lower.
Unlike the swing trader I am, I did not sell at $2.30 this time like last time it spiked. I was happy scalping 1000 free shares with those gains when it hit $1.86. But it may slowly drift lower if buyers dry up. Don't be bothered if it does. Waves. Always in waves.
Still a solid play long or mid term.
It could just as easily dip to $1.80 if volume flags . . . But I'd still be a buyer and hold what I got yesterday. From $1.86 to $2.20 is around a 19% gain and past moves suggest it happens within 3 months. That's a nice gain annually - even sexier if done quarterly. My average is now a bit over $1.60 so I'm quite pleased with how this has panned out this year.
Next year will be a tough go in the overall markets when compared to this year - but small caps will always hold the largest gains if you can catch them. A change in strategy for next year for me.
Sold half at $2.30 as previously posted. Patience snagged a partial fill of my order minutes ago at $1.86. Bought the remainder of what I sold at market price (1.89) and gained 1,000 free shares by selling and waiting to buy back. That's why I swing trade.
However, long term investing is much safer as you must realize that action also raised my average cost per share simultaneously. Yes, it gained me 1,000 free shares - but it just as easily could have gotten away from me. Stocks with lower floats can be more easily played for swings. Thin volume offers good cover, shall we say.
Best of luck. Enjoy your holiday. Lower expectations if they stress you and you'll be happier. Life is messy. Family gatherings are temporary. Then everything looks better! :)
Agree completely. Even a small run to $2.20's would get the swing traders some small gains - the shorts something to aim for again - and the longs a chance to sell - or buy on any dips. Win-win for the market makers and both sides of the trade.
If the past is any indicator (and it can be) then this goes back to $1.86 - then $1.80 if it closes at or below $1.92. But it appears there is a new bottom 'range' established (without substantive news).
Watch the short sales daily for an idea of future moves. Much of the volume on those sites I shared are about half of the daily tally - not sure why - but they do give an indication of the 'seen' moves - aside from the dark pools that trade invisibly.
The 'short analytics' site shows total volume as 431,856. Same for the 'short volume' website. Why the discrepancy?
Don't know the ins and outs of the AMEX to state why . . . Dark pools trading? HFT's make up the rest? But you are right - there is that difference. Interesting.
Perhaps I was premature. That's the beauty of the market!! But anything before 10:30-11am CST is quite often all fluff for the way the days trades will go - and 'normal' trading begins after.
Either way, I skinned 57% on a few thousand shares. That will come in handy. :)
The renewed buying interest makes the 75% of shares that I held look a lot nicer!! Win-win.
So that didn't happen. With that late afternoon support yesterday it looked quite likely it would go back higher . . . Sure makes my sale at $2.30 look prescient. At what price does it reverse? Likely to see support at new levels now.
Yesterday's volume of short sales was 288,237 shares bought short. Yesterday's volume of long sales was 143,619. At 67% of the days trades shorted, you can see why the drop today. But it always will reverse - - but where? Headfake at a $2.15 bottom this morning? Or a climb to past yesterday's high?
Ah, the market. Waves . . . always in waves.
I'll buy lower when volume dips. IF it dips. Otherwise I bank the gain and watch it. Still a good long term play - but I don't love stocks. I love gains. Easier to sell that way. Like your kids . . . Can't sell 'em if you love 'em. ;)
I think it still climbs tomorrow. Check out the short sales over the previous few days. More short sales than long sales for 6 of the last 8 days. That'll cause a spike.
I'm more of a swing trader with stocks like this - so when I see spikes, I pay close attention. Re-entry would allow even more profits - but you have to find the sweet spot. I was in low - sub $1.40 - and have been as low as $1.25 before selling all and re-buying. Protecting 57% gains - whether right or wrong - is simply my way to trade - and NOT a smart long term strategy . . .
But it's in the bank now - and in 3 days or longer I may get in lower. Or I may not. But the bank balance thinks it a wise choice.
I'm betting on a low volume dip after the spike. Right after I did that I saw it climb 9 cents . . . but now stabilized. It was prudent to sell some - but it isn't any guarantee. Something is moving this. But there is always a cap . . .
Holding 75% of what I had was my counter to that possibility of still climbing.
I agree. The daytraders, HFT's and swingers are licking their lips. I'm selling 25% of my holdings at 2.30this point - and will perhaps re-enter if it dips. I'm up over 57% so 'profit' is not an ugly word at this time . . . but 'greed' is.
This is climbing a bit too fast . . .
Daytraders, swing traders and HFT's. Typical movement for low float stocks. Didn't like the EOD low so it could test $1.80 once again.
Buying more on dips right now is smarter than selling the peaks and waiting for re-entry. But HFT's and daytraders don't think like that. :)
BREAKOUT CONFIRMED breakout above 1.93, no resistance in area just above.
Type: Continuation breakout from single resistance.
Target: 2.15, 9.7% Stop: 1.88, Loss: 4.1%, Profit/Loss ratio: 2.4 : 1 - Good
TARGET 1 SUPPORT -4.1% at 1.88 ± 0.05, type single, strength 8
-14.8% at 1.67 ± 0.05, type double, strength 7
-22.4% at 1.52 ± 0.04, type single, strength 2
-24.5% at 1.48 is Target 1
Yahoo won't let me directly link to the page. But I'll try to slip it by. It's all one word - shortanalytics. And it is the first Internet extension you would think of. Choose data over graphs for these numbers I posted above.
There is also another link that is one word and the same Internet extension: shortvolume
Yahoo keeps erasing my posts . . . To clarify: 68% of YESTERDAY'S volume were short sales . . . That is what will spike it higher. Almost the same for the day before.
Short sales as of 10-15
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
10/15/2013 1,605,694 179,789 8.930991
This will spike today on shorts closing out as a result of that high short percentage. If volume fades over the next few days then the gap from today should close. It all depends on the volume. Traders and HFT have influence.
But up long term is the trend if this company keeps performing and containing costs.