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Comcast Corporation Message Board

brlc.blows3 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 27, 2015 9:22 AM Member since: Oct 20, 2008
  • Reply to

    Once the deal is done I see

    by nolic1944 Jun 12, 2015 1:14 PM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 27, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    I agree, this is a real POS. wait until the first full quarter of ownership is over so we can see how big the cash shortfall is.

  • Reply to

    Once the deal is done I see

    by nolic1944 Jun 12, 2015 1:14 PM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 26, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Ha ha. The reason FGP has the highest yield of the propane MLPs is that it also has the highest risk - negative book value of units, free cash flow doesn't cover the distribution, increased debt each quarter, etc. IMO, none of that really changes in the Bridger deal if my calculations are correct. And for all of you mindless pumpers, feel free to post your own calculations instead of unsubstantiated opinions.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 24, 2015 10:27 PM Flag

    Hi pumps,

    Just wanted to make sure this post doesn't go too far down the page. I wonder if any of you could post an argument with my math rather than just rate it down? Would that be too much to ask?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This sort of got lost in noise of the Bridger deal, but they missed big time yesterday. EBITDA was down 4% vs 2014 Q3 despite 2015's inclusion of the midstream wastewater disposal business. I thought that was supposed to provide growth? In reality, it looks like all it's doing is hiding the true decline of the propane business.

    One other thing I noticed that is EXTREMELY misleading is that they claim excess DCF of just shy of $60 million for the 9 months ended 4/30/15 in the press release. However, as I pointed out elsewhere, DCF only includes maintenance capital ($14.9 million) and excludes everything else. Flip over to the 10Q cash flow statement and you will see total CapEX of $51.3 million plus acquisition CapEx of $68.9. Subtract those 2 and actual cash flow available for distributions goes negative. Don't worry though, they added debt to make up the difference like always. I'll be contacting the SEC as I think this is a loophole that needs to be closed.

    Toodles for now!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 10, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    OK, I'll give you that one. I didn't scroll down that far when reading it the 1st time. However, on an annualized basis, I still don't think it covers the distribution and debt service as I calculated above. There is one more item which I left out above to be fair. That is the additional $0.05 distribution on the existing units which comes to about $4.1 million.

    As to the point about PP&E investments contributing future growth, I also agree to a certain point. Bridger's assets consist primarily of trucks and rail cars plus 1 pipeline that's out of commission at the moment, plus 1 ship. I think the time from purchase to implementation for trucks and rail cars is significantly shorter than other midstream assets, meaning that once you buy the thing, it doesn't take long to put it to work. So I don't think there is much in the way of new assets waiting to come online (to be fair there must be some) but I don't think it is a whole lot. And again, I really must point out the conference call where they responded to a question saying they are assuming $10 million in annual maintenance capital. Nothing on asset purchases, ships, pipelines, etc. It really looks like they aren't planning on putting any growth capital into Bridger.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Thank You Wambold and Mgmt.

    by dangonegolfing Jun 4, 2015 7:45 PM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 9, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    It's much worse than that, see my other thread where I show the dilution to be 22% on 18+ million new units and why I don't think Bridger generates enough free cash for the distribution from these new units plus new debt service. It's not a pretty picture

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 9, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    I agree that FGP is profitable, and I've never suggested otherwise. However, my analyses have shown that FGP pays a distribution that is higher than its operating cash flow. It makes up the difference by increasing debt or increased dilution. The solution is easy, cut the distribution. However, the unit price would then fall as well to maintain the yield.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 9, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    No comprehension is just fine. You pointed out that Bridger experienced significant past growth due to PP&E investment. I agree there, but I pointed out where FGP management stated future investments will be $10 million, which is a fraction of past levels. Therefore I don't believe you can expect the same level of past growth to continue into the future. I expect it to be flat at best.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 9, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Did anyone ever tell you that you don't pay attention? I'm really starting to wonder... FGP stated on the call that they only intend to invest $10 million in Bridger CapEx for the first year. Therefore, you can't assume the same type of growth rate as Bridger was experiencing in the past when their annual CapEx was higher. Does that count as "looking out the front window"?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • See below for my cash flow analysis:

    Total new units: 18,473,750 which equals $37,871,187.50 in new distributions
    New debt: $500,000,000 @ 6.75% which equals $33,750,000 in new interest expense
    Expected annual CapEx - $10,000,000 (comes from the Bridger call around the 20 min mark in response to an analyst question)
    Total Brlc.blows3 expected annual cash outlay - $81,621,187.50.

    Compare to Bridger's FY 2014 cash flow from operations of $38,387,848 found on page F7 of FGP's 8-K filing from 6/1/15. Note that Bridger's historical cash flow would need to more than double from here just to cover expected outlays. That is only possible through increased asset purchases (tankers, rail cars, ships, etc.) in which case the $10 million CapEx number above will rise as well. In either case, I just don't see how the math works on this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 8, 2015 8:40 PM Flag

    As of today, the only ones getting bent over are the ones who bought at the offering price of $23. Well them and the rest of you clowns who just got a 22% dilution.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    These scam artists did it again!!

    by brlc.blows3 Mar 11, 2015 11:10 AM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 8, 2015 8:37 PM Flag

    Nope - only spent 6 months as a renter. Since you called my analytical skills into question, I thought I would point out that one of those periods had a one time expense that, when added back in for comparison's sake, actually showed net earnings decreasing over the period. Looks like my point was lost. I'll post another in depth overview of the more recent deal in a little bit, then let's see where it shakes out. The bottom line is I don't think Bridger generates enough free cash to allow them to pay the distribution, they will still need to borrow to cover the shortfall, stay tuned.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    22% Dilution LMAO!

    by brlc.blows3 Jun 7, 2015 12:14 AM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 7, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    I am more convinced than ever that FGP is a house of cards waiting to collapse. I went back to read the seeking alpha article about their DCF calculation and how it excludes most types of CapEx and therefore isn't a true measure of cash available to be paid as distributions. When you subtract all types of CapEx, the DCF coverage ratio is less than 1. I don't expect this to change now with 22% additional units and a capital intensive business. One of these days, I am going to call in to one of their earnings calls and bring it up.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • brlc.blows3 by brlc.blows3 Jun 7, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    6,325,000 public offering units
    948,750 underwriters option
    11,200,000 units paid to Bridger's owners
    18,473,750 total new units
    $500 million notes @6.75% ($33.75 million annual interest expense)

    82,717,600 units outstanding at the end of last quarter, no wonder this hit a 52-week low last week

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    These scam artists did it again!!

    by brlc.blows3 Mar 11, 2015 11:10 AM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 6, 2015 9:59 PM Flag

    Sorry dummy - the P&L for the six months ended 1/31/14 included $21 million of expenses related to the early extinguishment of debt. The real comparison over those 2 periods is actually $53 million vs. $57 million. Let me know if you have any further brilliant suggestions.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Issuing 11 Million new shares should

    by nolic1944 Jun 1, 2015 9:20 AM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Jun 1, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    I think you are misinterpreting the "cash" portion. While they will pay cash for the 2/3 portion, they still need to borrow whether it's short term, long term, or from their revolving credit line. Take a look at recent balance sheets, they don't have that much cash.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    OUCH

    by ttt5m Apr 17, 2015 10:33 PM
    brlc.blows3 brlc.blows3 Apr 29, 2015 10:49 PM Flag

    It's getting pretty close, especially when you add the collateralized note plus the continuous increases in accounts payable. I heard from an industry buddy that a big parts supplier put them on COD terms. They really need to fess up and cut the divvy and right the ship.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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