CMG traded most of today above $668 until the last hour. Then the market maker went dumpster diving hoping to get the short $665 puts expiring to day to cover (buy puts to close). I have seen this type of play many times this year all having to do with options expiration. The fact that CMG closed below $665 is not important. I will not be put the stock since once it opens on Monday If it goes above $665 the market maker will lose out.
It also occurred today with HLF with expiring $31 puts. I just opened up a short put position at lunch time today for the purpose of scalping $100. The dumpster dive at the bell to $31 ended above $31. A trader needs to take the bait once or twice to know he has been taken to the cleaners. Just don't take the bait.
LOL. Costco already has a new partnering card lined up. The odd man out is AXP.
In my town, the local vendors buy from Costco. I see break-time trucks all the time at 3:00 pm when their day is over. The truck owners reload for the next day.
My brand new BOA cc has been in my wallet for no more than 4 months. I have cashed in $300 in rewards cash. Some of it was sign on bonuses. I don't ever remember my AMEX Costco rewards check larger than $30 for the year. From my viewpoint, dump Amex and let me use BOA at Costco.
Power utilities do not like homes with solar power. The grid must still be there when the sun does not shine. But laws require utilities to buy solar generated energy. But there are limitation. Only so much power can be shunted into the grid based on what the house consumes from the grid. On a bright day, the panels may not be limited in how much the homeowner can sell back to the utility. This is why efficient batteries are needed. Rather than dump power due to grid limitations, store the power.
Currency hedges are costly and are only good if you put them on before the event. Many companies are reporting losses on currency exchange. I can't see how this can dramatically affect GMCR hedged or no hedge.
I agree. I sold calls after the huge gap up for NFLX. But it kept going up! I managed to make a few dollars but the strength in momentum stocks is huge.
AMZN missed rev and guided lower. I dunno why all this strength. On the other hand, NFLX proved again it is the Monster of the Midway.
On an earnings miss, the market maker is flooded with sell orders. To gain some control, a technical price is targeted. This is what happened tonight as we're at a massive bottom for which there is much support. To say that we blew through other (higher) technical support levels is true. I think we will stay at this level for some time as everyone seems to salute it.
In tech land, a miss means the woodshed.
We know that Afrezza inventory has been built up. We know that some reps are being trained this week in Vegas. Afrezza has been found on some drug formularies. This looks like a launch and smells like a launch. Why no announcements from either Sanofi or Mannkind?
Deja vu all over again.
Four years ago, FFIV missed in Q4 2010 and the stock dumped AH as it is doing now. The stocked stayed in purgatory until last year. Now it is back in the hot seat.
NFLX posted good numbers last night and the stock is rocketing in pre market. I can't believe that unhedged shorts are scrambling to cover. But am I wrong. Do we go higher or is it a pop and drop?
Diabetes is a broken feedback control loop. When Sam exercises, the muscles tell the liver to produce more sugar as it is needed for energy. This results in an uptick in blood sugar. But insulin is needed to "usher" the large glucose molecule into the cells where it is needed. Inadequate insulin results in blood sugar remaining in the blood stream. A non-diabetic would produce insulin in proportion to the sugar it is producing so the cells have access to the energy source.
Since Afrezza is quick acting, Sam could take a puff and be ready to exercise. Doing this with Novolog has a risk of hypo as the insulin remains in the blood for a long time.
The quick-on and quick-off feature of Afrezza is not captured in either of the P3 clinical trials. There they relied on HbA1c as a measure of sugar control. The Sam Fintas of the world will figure this all out and find out that Afrezza changes their lives in a positive way.
Notwithstanding the above, I think it will be T2s that will drive the early adopter market. Many docs have T2s that should be on insulin but fear the needle. Afrezza get the monkey off their backs. There should be quite a few of these in the US.
The P3 data MNKD presented to the FDA was not perfect. Although Afrezza met the primary endpoints for T1 and T2, it did not control HbA1c as well as current basal bolus therapy. The market correctly interpreted the AdCom as a way for the panel to do the dirty work of the FDA - reject Afrezza. At the AdCom, the FDA went after MNKD hammer and tong. But the public speakers were foresquare behind Afrezza. The turning point came later that afternoon when the diabetic member of the panel said: "its not all about HbA1c." Other panel members also saw the need for needle resistant patients. So on an so forth.
The FDA team was clearly shocked by the outcome. They just didn't get it.
I find it amusing that Jonas's analysis is based on a 15 year model and an estimate of WACC. It's like predicting how tall your newborn will be at age 15.
The story need not be complex. With any new product, there is risk that the buying public will not cooperate. Although the products are not similar, the moniker of "blockbuster" has been affixed to Afrezza as it was to Provenge.
Investors will not know for sure until the August 2015 MNKD ER. By then we will have real numbers to evaluate. 2015 Q1 will have a lot of free samples.
Do you remember the 2008 NFL draft? Two blockbuster quarterbacks headed the round 1 picks. No 1 turned into a hall of fame QB: Peyton Manning. No 2. turned into a horrendous dud: Ryan Leaf. Some said Leaf had more potential. Will Afrezza be the next Lipitor; or will it be Provenge?
It is easy to point out the various differences in details between DNDN and MNKD. The lesson to learn that everyone seems to miss is that MNKD's success is dependent on the market's response to Afrezza. On paper and in the hearts of all diabetic/investors Afrezza is a clear winner. But so was Provenge in 2011. My post was to cause longs to be reflective in thought. What I got was a pack of no-brained pumpers who consider anything negative as a hit on their champion stock.
I am not a diabetic. At AdCom in April, I sat right in front of Sam Finta (Afrezzauser) as he spoke about his experience with Afrezza. His and other very convincing testimonies that day solidified my position on Afrezza. But we as investors must heed the warnings of the price drop after SNY of $4.00 ps. The DNDN story is of a sure winner that went south.