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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

broad_and_south 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 20, 2014 9:35 AM Member since: Oct 18, 2007
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  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Aug 5, 2014 5:47 PM Flag

    The new insulin supply agreement does not really tell the entire story. MNKD has a large supply of lyophilized insulin purchased in 2011. It has been on ice for the last 3 years and will be used to make product subject to FDA approval. Since Amphastar does not start until next year, I surmise that the iced insulin is good and they are making product now for product launch. For the beancounters out there, the iced insulin has already been written off so it is essentially free. A few years ago, MNKD said it had enough iced insulin to make $1 bln product.

    It seems there will be a product launch. Who will be our partner?

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Jul 27, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    The latest report shows 71.7 mln shares MNKD stock shorted. This is an increase of 4 mln shares since the last report. Short interest was abnormally high for the last 6 months. Why would it increase after FDA approved Afrezza? If money is on the line, only the clearest logic backing the investment thesis prevails. In my mind’s eye, it is illogical to hold a short knowing that a catalytic event (partnership announcement) is looming and the odds on bet is positive. Like a child, I rationalized the dissonance by assuming the shorts were hedged.

    But Jason Carp’s article shattered my fantasy. The poorly written article’s intentions were to induce a bear run which offers cover for the shorts. I have changed my mind and I think the majority of the shorts are unhedged. They are waiting for a bad partnership or no partnership to be announced. If the shorts are right, they will cover at a nice profit, but not at $1. If the longs are right, there will be a tremendous short squeeze.

    I am long the stock and short the puts. We will all find out soon who wins.

  • Reply to

    Short thesis intact

    by broad_and_south Jul 27, 2014 9:06 AM
    broad_and_south broad_and_south Jul 27, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    One other point:

    Hedge fund managers are not gods with awe inspiring power. Last week Bill Ackman tried his best to take down HLF by presenting incontrovertible evidence that HLF is a scam. How well did he do? HLF's stock started to go up as he started his presentation. By the end of the day it was up 25%.

  • broad_and_south broad_and_south Aug 5, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    You must first understand the bifurcation of tasks that the ensuing partnership will entail MNKD will manufacture Afrezza along with RA and R&D. The partner will be strictly sales and marketing. Purchase agreements for raw materials are always tied to manufacturing. Any payment to the insulin supplier will be next year after MNKD is flush with cash.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Sep 20, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    You know that van Ostrand held on until he was booted. He is like Tony Romo of the Cowboys; he can get you just so far. The march to full scale production has stalled. Will Kholodenko solve the problem? It will take a year to find out.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Aug 12, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    When the Flint study was stopped in January due to early achievement of the primary endpoint, it caused this stock to jump to the moon. Yesterday, we received additional data from post trial testing. The jewel presented last night was that OCA reversed fibrosis in NASH patients. This is akin to a liver transplant in a pill. The news spawned the typical short covering but not the fireworks I expected.

    There are still price estimates in the $400-500 range. ICPT has a potential blockbuster drug. Sanity will return soon to the market.

  • Reply to

    the most logic answers to all puzzles

    by legendtrade Sep 9, 2014 11:59 PM
    broad_and_south broad_and_south Sep 10, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Not going to happen. If the public knew that a sapphire screen was coming soon, between major product releases, it would kill sales. People would wait. There is no way to hide this since there is so much tooling involved. AAPL will let the IPhone 6 be a sales success before it changes to sapphire assuming it is possible.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Sep 10, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    The selling has caused the stock to break below the double bottom set earlier this year. The price is below the 60 and 200 DMA. Technically, nobody is coming to rescue this stock. It will have to find a new price range to trade in.

    The bad news is that the IPhone 6 does not have a sapphire cover. I know some still believe ion modified is code for sapphire; but the market gets it right always. However, the real bad news is that sapphire may never be on smartphones. The crystalline structure of sapphire may be too brittle to use in a large form factor smartphone. It will be harder to scratch; but easier to shatter when dropped. There may be a way to laminate sapphire over gorilla glass to get the best of both worlds.

    Back to the chase: Let's see where the price settles in at.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Aug 11, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    I have held MNKD for several years now and have a nice gain. But I expected much more today from the Sanofi deal. There was constant selling today meaning investors were getting out. There is no catalyst for a bump in price until next year. I see this as dead money until then.

    ICPT has done much better for me in the short run.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Sep 10, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    The IPhone 6 will ship in little over a week. AAPL will sell millions before the end of September. If the GTAT sapphire screen is on the device, many millions of units will have already been shipped to China for assembly. Has anyone seen such a screen on the factory floor? We would have heard about it already.

    But many people on this board still think GT's sapphire screen is on the iPhone. For no reason other than they want it to be true.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Sep 13, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    Fidelity will get some BABA stock and distribute them to customers who express an interest. No doubt the interest exceeds the number of share they will get. Allocation will be by the value of the customer relationship - meaning large dogs eat before small dogs. I entered an order for 1,000 shares as a retail customer who trades a lot. Will I get a fill?

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Aug 11, 2014 7:44 AM Flag

    Some confusion this morning. There is a webcast at 830 am EST to discuss the Sanofi deal. Some newswire said there is one at 2:00 pm EST; this seems wrong. As per Friday, there is an ER webcast at 5:00 pm EST.

    Be on the one at 8:30 am EST.

  • Reply to

    results are out in the 10q

    by vvvvvvrebel89130 Aug 11, 2014 4:18 PM
    broad_and_south broad_and_south Aug 11, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    I read it briefly. My key take away is that the improvement due to OCA goes away after the drug is stopped.

    Not much on the lipid problem.

  • Reply to

    GALT and GFT-505

    by gran_pa Jul 31, 2014 8:03 AM
    broad_and_south broad_and_south Jul 31, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    GALT's NASH drug is based on apple pectin, a naturally occurring fruit and consumed widely without adverse events. It was the second cohort in Phase 1 that they flopped. Leave it to AF to frame the failure in an odious fashion. They will go on to the third cohort at higher dosage to observe Phase 1 endpoints (safety) and if the appearance of biomarkers that tell if the drug is working. Absent the latter, GALT needs to punt.

    ICPT is much further along. The FDA may accept OCA for NASH notwithstanding the cholesterol issue given that people will die from lack of treatment.

    The best part of the ICPT story is the low stock float. Many biopharmas must dilute and dilute to get over the finish line.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Aug 11, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    First off, Kevin needs to be talked off the ledge he is on somewhere.

    The market's reaction to the Sanofi deal is lukewarm at best. The shorts can cover at their leisure so there will be no thunderous short squeeze. Sanofi is the large pharma MNKD needs to market Afrezza. But there are several aspects of the deal that are less than glowing.

    The partnership is structured as a JV where both members share the cost and profits 65/35. Afrezza is transferred to Sanofi at COGS which means a lot of MNKD's current costs are placed on the product. This is good. The up front cost to market Afrezza means there will be no profits to MNKD for several quarters. They will have to survive on the up front $150 mln and progress payments.

    AF, bless his wretched soul pointed out that ARNA's deal is better since they get 35% royalties up front on sales.

    On the webcast, PIerre of Sanofi highlighted the injection adverse market as key. He did not mention the ultra rapid acting nature of Afrezza. Al did so at the end of the webcast.

    In sum, we have a deal. Not a great deal but one that will prove out if Afrezza can garner large volumes of sales.

  • broad_and_south by broad_and_south Sep 5, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    I am short NFLX and short today's expiring $275 put. IThe puts should get assigned. But the MM may not want to sell to me at 4:00 pm. Let's see if he plays games.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations all you longs

    by wineilli Aug 11, 2014 4:48 PM
    broad_and_south broad_and_south Aug 11, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    In the Flint study for Nash, there was observed reversal of fibrosis. This was a surprise.

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