Athens, I don't think they are failing to land a partner due to ineptness. I think they have taken a hard line stance on their projections and what they believe PATH is worth, and what their demands are but suitors simply aren't giving them the terms that they have stood by from the beginning.
My opinion of the worst case scenario of why a deal hasn't been inked would be pride. Best case scenario is that they are so overly confident in the sales projections that they view GIA and a dilution as a mere speed bump.
I bought this stock in December before the FDA approval and have been holding ever since. At this point I'd rather hold and lose my money then sell and lose the chance to hit it. Worst case scenario is having to continue to hold the stock for another year.
Ken, I think there is room for electric vehicles but Tesla's is very expensive and that is with a federal incentive. Tax dollars have been supporting Tesla sales and the average person still cannot afford one. The amount of Nat Gas that has been discovered surpasses increases in demand. Other countries are using fracking technology now as well. If Nat Gas wasn't an answer then there would not be so much capital deployment in the industry directed towards Nat Gas fueling stations, engines, vehicles, engineering...etc. They are using fleet vehicles to help get the infrastructure established, which is the hardest part of this endeavor. This is not a zero sum game and there is plenty of room in this economy for electric and Nat Gas.
Haha athens that's an interesting point but I have seen some insane things, and it doesn't necessarily bar the company from declining further negotiations if they cannot come to an agreement, and still decide to go it alone. Let's hope we get a partnership, it won't give us a grand slam that a buyout would but it gives longer term investors a chance to make substantial gains as revenue manifests on the Financial Statements.
Yes, If I had to make assumptions I would say they have not had been bought out, but a partnership does seem like the most likely scenario. I have never been involved in a company that has drug this process out so long so I have no idea what is going on behind closed doors. There may be circumstances that would make the wait logical.
Concurrently I don't recall ever spending so much time reviewing and following lease agreements. But that is because PATH gives us very little to work with, let's just hope that is because they are finalizing a deal.
bull, I have come to the same conclusion this morning. But I also think ONCS does share a symbiotic relationship from a fundamental standpoint. Good news, good trial data for one is also positive for the other. Personally I think an interesting scenario would be for a large cap pharma to bid for both companies in a buyout attempt. The synergies would be enormous.
I run screens, model companies then buy based on my level of confidence and what funds I have available, but I will look at RNN. and I did not say I hope it tanks, I said I hope it dips. I wasn't trying to have a negative impact on the stock, I am long, I was simply expressing hope for an opportunity, it didn't happen and that is OK.
I just graduated from college. I could only afford 1000 shares. I bought in at .53 per share. I don't have a lot of money to invest, it is what it is.
I would love to be able to buy more shares below $1.50. I plan to hold for at least six months so I'm not worried about a tweet or an SA article and even though it is selfish, it would be nice to get those cheaper shares.
Uni, I agree. We can only work with the information that is available and even though leasing and staffing information is merely tangential, we can glean and infer information that gives us a chance to play the stock correctly. I have been invested in PATH since December, this hasn't been an easy stock to hold but I have averaged my price down over that time and feel confident in what we have with this company.
One thing I know for sure, this is a dynamic and complex situation. Between GSK's legal trouble and their ties to PATH it is hard to pin down motives. I think the goal here is to not get rattled.
Obviously we prefer buyout. But from everything I have done I would say it is much more probable that we partner. There will be some arrangement where PATH keeps the U.S market and the partner gets overseas, or Europe. I think we see $6 on news of partner, with $7 to $8 there after. Buyout would bring a higher PPS, I ran it in Excel under a simplified model and came to a number that I believe is lower than what a lot of people here are hoping for upon buyout, but if you are OK with doubling or tripling your money then I would continue to add sub $3 a share. This is all my opinion and you should seek your own information or professional counsel for the sake of not taking the advice of a stranger on the internet (obviously)
I don't get on the boards here often. I spend all my time valuing companies and researching, but every once in a while I come around when I think that there is very little research left for me to do in a company and I am awaiting an impending catalyst. That time is now and the company is Nupathe.
hahaha I was thinking $2,000 a share! but seriously this stock could take me to the next level.
Started with $3,000 in the brokerage acct in December, sitting on $7,000 now. Thanks to ACAD, MJNA, INO and GALE. Still have INO, ONCS and PATH. Trying to break $10,000 in the account.
i bought 800 shares at .53, sold at 1.45 bought them back at 1.23 and am holding right now. If I wasn't two months out of college and broke as #$%$ I would have bought 10,000 shares, but it takes money to make money. Can I get into Epicville with 1000 shares?
Uniowner, I understand what your logic is in counting the companies then dividing the odds equally among them but I disagree with that line of thought softly. As nothing can be absolute, when I give advice to novice investors I use this analogy; Investing in stocks is similar to going to a casino, your either going to win or lose and the odds are stacked against you because you don't have the resources, man power, and access to software that the house has, but when you do your DD and research (or have professional training such as myself) then you become similar to a card counter that tilts the odds back ever so slightly.
With that being said, yes Safeguard Scientific has multiple companies in their portfolio and yes other companies in their portfolio are ripe for a deal but not all of them. I'm not going to pour out all of my Due Diligence here but I can assure that the odds are better than 1 in 20. Using just the basic information available we can eliminate some of their holdings. Now look at PATH; They have a new drug platform approved that delivers the most common Migraine medication. They have intimated that they have been actively seeking partnership since even before the approval. Their goal was to launch Q413. That means that they have been soliciting offers and negotiating for months. Other Safe companies have not because they aren't ready, take a look at them. There are a few specific factors that lead me to believe that they were indeed discussing PATH but you have to dig for yourself. All I am saying is we can never be sure, but the odds are tilted in our favor ever so slightly, and in this casino that is all you can ask for.
This is going to be a stupid question but I looked through GSK's 10Q and also on Mergent and I couldn't find anything about their position in Nupathe, can you direct me towards it to further my DD?
Dr, I don't think that anything was said that could be considered a violation of the SEC. If he had given specifics then we might be having a different discussion but he basically just said that one of the companies that they are invested in has been at the table having a discussion, from what I remember there wasn't much beyond that and what was said was very ambiguous. But I really hope he was referring to Nupathe and based on my research I think there is a fantastic possibility that he was.
Tracer, What these guys are talking about is Safeguard's conference call. Safeguard is a private equity firm that buys stock in growth micro-small cap companies and help them develop, seek partnership, or buyouts and then sell their shares. Safeguard owns 17% of the common outstanding shares of Nupathe so they have a vested interest in a deal being made for PATH. Technically they could dump their shares, yes, but that doesn't make any sense at this point considering how long they have held the stock, how close a deal is, losses they have already incurred, and their goals this year (they want to close two positions by the end of 4Q13).
Now about the CC. The buzz is in what was said near the end when there was speculation by whoever was talking (I can't remember) that there is healthy ongoing discussion of a buyout/partnership and Nupathe fits the description of the the company that was being discussed. If i deal is to be made we will know most likely by the end of august and at the latest mid september. If there was ever a time to buy this stock due to spec of buyout this is it, no question about it.
how does the saying go? You have to be able to see the forest between the trees. People will look at the balance sheet, income statement today and say this company loses money, this company dilutes shares, but you invest in a company for its intrinsic value; "the present value of all future cash flows". This is why I sometimes like dilution, a company like this needs cash to finance operations and is not yet in a position to fully sustain itself, and there isn't neccessarily anything wrong with that. It simply gives us an opportunity to purchase more shares at a cheaper price and average our price down. Yeah, if you were trying to flip this stock within a short amount of time you lost money, but your not a very intelligent investor if that was your strategy with this company. The main thing to watch now that acquisitions and financing have happened is future income statements, if they start making money to pay down their debt and turn cash flows positive, the company will be fine.
I have said several times on this board that dilution is a neccessary tool for a company like TRTC. Whether or not you are thinking about investing in a company like this should revolve mainly around two things. 1. what is your time horizon? If you can hold this stock long term, not worry about further financing and let the company grow into a profitable enterprise over the course of a year at a minimum, and more likely 2 or so years. So if you can hold for a long time then this stock is more enticing. 2. what is your risk tolerance? This is not a safe company to invest in, it is not a sure thing, but it is the type of company that is high risk high reward. I wouldn't take out a second mortgage to invest but if you have play money that won't kill you to lose then the possible reward over the long term is large.
Numerous companies that are now successful, mid-large cap companies with good reputations started out as micro cap cash hungry enterprises that required pain to get to where they are. If you are trying to make quick money, or are betting money that you can hardly afford to lose then you shouldn't be investing in any company like this to begin with. So you can talk about the companies acquisitions, dilutions, and name changes all day but the simple fact of the matter is is that TRTC hasn't done anything unusual for a company in its' position.
DC is right, this is the type of stock that rewards the most patient. If you are looking to make a quick buck then TRTC will be dissapointing. They have to organize and restructure (all the things a micro cap company has to do to poise themselves for growth). They don't have benficial credit terms so they need to raise cash by issuing shares, but I am assuming no one here needs a corporate finance lesson. I sold at .58 and bought back in recently. Patience in this company will reward everyone handsomly. We must take uncertainty and a little pain along the way but those that can handle it will come out on top. My suggestion is to simply average your price down on dips and accumulate shares. This is the only MMJ stock I still hold, sold MJNA, CBIS, and GRNH after they popped.