I think that may have an effect on what Gooch does. If it was overwhelming he may have little choice. If it was close, then he may try some more shenanigans although I don't know what they may be.
I also posted this on the GFI board. It's dangerous to read too much into this, but the price is now below both the 6.10 BGCP is offering and the 5.85 that CME/Gooch is offering. It is possible that there won't be enough votes for either plan. That might be what the market is saying, and also may be what ISS recommended.
It's dangerous to read too much into this, but the price is now below both the 6.10 BGCP is offering and the 5.85 that CME/Gooch is offering. It is possible that there won't be enough votes for either plan. That might be what the market is saying, and also may be what ISS recommended.
Gooch and his buddies own 40% of the shares. In order for the deal with CME to go through, they have to get 2/3s of the total shares AND a majority of the neutral shares, (meaning I assume the non Gooch shares.) If I am right, then Gooch needs 31% of the total which is over 50 % of the neutral 60%. And BGC, between pledged and owned has about 30%. If that is correct, then Gooch can't win.
If I am wrong and the neutral shares are only those that are owned by neither Gooch nor BGC then the most neutral shares there can be are 47% of the total. I believe that BGC owns 13.5% and has 16.5 pledged. That means they only need another 7 or 8% to block the deal.
So if that is correct, CME can't win under that interpretation either. BGC needs 45% to win so they need only an additional 15% or so.
Let me know if I've got the numbers correct. tia.
This was the same deal that was completed some time ago for the rehab. What happened last week was the Tajik government stamped it's final approval. We all knew that was coming, it was merely a ministerial act. The only effect it might have is that the bank for Vagobel may have been waiting for that to approve the deal. Other than that, this news will have little effect on price. February 19 is the big date. Will they get the money from Vagobel?
There were almost 10,000 august 10 calls traded today. The open interest at that strike is over 16k already and most of these went at the ask which means they were probably buys. This is a massive open interest for this stock. Whoever bought will never be able to sell them all, IMO, so they must be intending to exercise at some point. That's maybe 2.5 million shares at this point. It seems that someone knows something or someone is up to something. Thanks to whoever pointed out the high volume on this board a couple of weeks ago.
Why the CME deal requires 67% of the shareholders and BGCPs only requires 50 or perhaps 45%. Since this is the case it looks like BGCP can block CME's deal without winning itself
I wonder, with the new letter, if BGC is implying that if the CME deal goes through, CME and the current board will be buying a lawsuit from BGC. Sounds like it to me.
If that is true, then the whole system may be self regulating and this may have been the Saudi's point. If SA had cut production to support prices, the over production would have just continued and only the Saudis would have suffered. They no longer have the power to control prices. So, they had to do what they did. Allowing market forces to work will limit production by NA and others until the prices reach a new equilibrium. I'm no expert but my guess is that that price will be around the 75 dollar a barrel price.
The other interesting question is where fixed and variable costs are in the equation. If the variable costs for producing a barrel are above the price of oil then it makes no sense to pump another drop. If the variable costs are below that, but the fixed costs are above, then it does make sense, at least for a while. I don't know the fixed and variable costs of PWE but it anyone does, I would be interested i hearing.
Interesting, thanks kingkalm. From what I can see the August 10's were trading pretty heavily all day and wound up with almost 4000 volume. The biggest trade was 339 at 3:18. No other strikes traded heavily. The stock volume was not heavy. Assuming someone was buying, the seller was not laying off on another strike. They may have been buying stock but the volume of stock wasn't huge. There was a rush in stock volume in the last few minutes so maybe that's it. Don't know but it looks promising.
I wonder if there is news on the GFI deal. The price shot up at about 1 pm today. Someone said that BGC and CME want different parts of GFI. I wonder if those two came to a deal. Just speculating, I have no info.
The old saying is that when the bear in any market hits the non-financial press, gets on the front page of Newsweek if it still existed, then the bear is over. Oil is getting to be a top story on the mainstream news shows, so maybe its ready.
The fed today said it will keep interest rates low. Investments compete for investors dollars. If interest rates go up, money moves from stocks to fixed income, a little at a time, but it will move. So, with the fed saying that the rates will stay low, money moved back into stocks. As to the media, they have to say something. If they said what I said and left it at that, the news readers would be out of a job, because they'd say the same thing every time, or they'd say nothing and no one would watch.