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Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. Message Board

brpanthers99 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 13, 2014 9:24 AM Member since: Aug 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    2015 Dividend Analysis

    by brpanthers99 Dec 12, 2014 10:10 PM
    brpanthers99 brpanthers99 Dec 13, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    Regarding Ensco 110, Ensco 106 is getting about 150k per, Ensco 107 is getting 230k, Ensco 108 is getting about 150k. Given the tough market, probable 130-140K per is expected.

    Regarding DS10, I think we see less than DS-8 and DS-9 so probably 500K per day.

  • Is there an ETF or Mutual fund focused on offshore drillers?

  • brpanthers99 by brpanthers99 Dec 12, 2014 10:10 PM Flag

    In 2015, Ensco has 2B in CapEx to pay for in addition to the 700M in dividend payments. This is a 1 year issue as capex for 2016 is current at 400M. Add in another 400M for sustaining and upgrades and the CapEx falls to 800M for 2016. Therefore, we need to look at whether Ensco can pay the dividends for 2015 only.

    Ensco current brings in about 500M a quarter is Net Income plus Depreciation. This totals about 2B. Ensco also has 1.1B in cash currently. This would equal 3.1B. which would be above the 2.7B (CapEx and Dividends). Going a step further, Ensco DS-8 starts in Q3 with Total at 610K per day, and DS-9 starts in Q3 with Conoco Phillips at 550K. This equals 1.16M per day in additional revenue. Factoring in these rigs working ½ of Q3 and then Q4, that would add 52M in Q3 revenue and 104M in Q4 revenue respectively. At 30% profitability this alone will add another 50M or so to cash in the 2nd half of the year. Ensco 110 (3Q) and DS-10 (Q4) are also set to start working in 2015 but are not under contract at this time.

    Overall, the cash will likely be there to support the entire $3 a year dividend without borrowing money. However, it would not surprise me if Ensco either borrowed some money to keep the dividend, or reduced it slightly. Being that the 2016 CapEx is so much lower, it gives me hope that they may just weather 2015 because in 2016 and going forward there really would be no issue paying the dividend giving the incoming cash flow against the CapEx and dividends that need to be paid.

  • Reply to

    ESV Dividend History?

    by bijom Dec 8, 2014 4:01 PM
    brpanthers99 brpanthers99 Dec 8, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    Not that I know of. I mean a few weeks ago on 11/12 they declared and will pay the December $.75 dividend. They didn't have to but they did....

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