Interesting post! If the markets close for an extended period...what happens?
A little research today revealed the total notational value of derivatives held by the six biggest US banks (Chase, Citi, G Sachs, BofA, Mor Stanley, and Wells Fargo) is an astounding $278 Trillion. Those six banks have total assets of only $9.8 Trillion. Total outstanding mortgages in the US are valued at $13.5 Trillion and the total US debt is about $17 Trillion.
Why is gambling on this scale tolerated?
It's true, most derivatives expire worthless...just like most conventional insurance. Maybe this should not be a concern. Let's hope there is no black swan event.
Insurance is one kind of derivative...a business Buffet's been in for decades. He's also bought/sold puts/calls too...another type of derivative. This activity is published in their financial reports.
His concern was the scale of derivative transactions in the big city banking system combined with the lack of transparency. No one knows, specifically, the bets they are making. Thus, it's impossible to gauge the risk to the banking system if some unexpected major crisis occurs. He still views this situation as a potential weapon of mass financial destruction.
Does that make him a hypocrite? Not to me.
Old news wizard. And not relevant to my post.
S.eranger apparently blames Obama for the recent market slide. Yet I doubt he credits Obama for the 20+% average market gains every year since he's been in office.
Buffet (a true market wizard...unlike S.eranger) just closed a $37.2 billion dollar deal. Obviously he disagrees with S.eranger. Whose market advise would YOU trust?
I wonder if Warren Buffet would agree. Two weeks ago he bought Precision Castparts in a $37.2 billion dollar deal. Big mistake...right?
Thanks for the positive feedback. Glad you found my post funny...especially you crankybuzard.
On a different topic: Goggle these words "Should Obama get credit for the improved economy?"
It's amazing how people (all supposedly experts) have such widely different opinions.
No, no no...illegal immigrants don't have any cookies. None. They are working 6 days a week, 10 hour a day, picking lettuce near Bakerfield, Ca...the lettuce in the salads you eat. If you doubt that I suggest you visit Bakerfield and see for yourself.
Here's an improved version.
Donald Trump is on the patio of his 80,000SF home, Mar-A-Lago, on Palm Beach Island. He's sitting with a plumber discussing the pool leak, and the illegal immigrant who weeds his rose garden. The maid brings them 20 cookies. Donald grabs 19 and advises the plumber to take the last one before the illegal takes it.
Here's a Goldman Saks joke:
A GS executive is sitting at a table with an autoworker and illegal immigrant. There are 20 cookies on the table. The GS guy takes 19 cookies and tells the autoworker to grab the last one fast...before the illegal immigrant gets it.
Or it could be a Donald Trump joke:
Donald Trump is sitting at a table ... Etc.
Assume the earth scientists (the experts) are right...ie. there IS global warming AND it's caused by man. I thought: So what if it takes 10-20 years for the world to address the problem. Eventually we will, and when that happens we'll take the steps needed to solve the problem.
Apparently that's not true! The greenhouse gases already released will NEVER go away...EVER...according to scientists. Delaying action will only make it worse. So the naysayers better be right or their children and grandchildren will be toast...literally.
He is a very high level Greek banker. My guess he is fully occupied dealing with the Greek debt crisis. He has been heavily involved in the debt negotiations in the past and probably still is. I doubt there was any malfeasance.
Climate changes occurred many times over millions of years for various reasons. You can research why that happened yourself. More recently evidence suggests a gradual rise in average temperatures that seem unrelated to any of the historical causes of temperature changes. A huge consensus of earth scientists believe it is happening and is due to pollutants generated by mankind. Very few experts disagree, but get lots of publicity.
Both Obama and the Pope rely on urgent concerns coming from experts on the subject. It is frequently a huge mistake to ignore experts. President Reagan ignored the AID's crisis for years. President Bush was never advised by his national security advisor to raise an alarm prior to 911 (terrorism expert Clark was essentially ignored). Alan Greenspan was warned repeatedly prior to 2007 about corruption in the mortgage banking industry and the dangers of Credit Default Swaps and CDO's...but ignored it.
Fortunately no one stopped Dr. Salk from his research on a polio vaccine. In the 1930's physicist Leo Szilard realized a nuclear bomb was possible. He was worried Hitler would build one first. Frantic with fear, in 1938 he wrote a letter to FDR and asked his friend Albert Einstein to sign it, even though Einstein was not an expert on the subject. But Einstein's reputation was too great to be ignored. Unfortunately, there is no "Einstein" today.
I'm not confusing anything. You can't transform the economy (as you suggested) and ignore the transportation sector. Last year cars traveled the equilivant of to/from the sun 14,000+ times.
As for the Pope and Obama not knowing what they are talking about. So you do and they don't? Pretty arrogant I'd say. They consult the best experts on the planet. Who do you rely on for your information...Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity?
Well, with those limitations what is the "huge opportunity" you believe in? Cars account for 60% of gas/diesel consumed (trucks 28%, planes 8%, trains/buses 3%). The conversion to steam turbines is already happening, but converting cars will make a big difference...that huge opportunity you reject. Personally I believe ANG is the huge opportunity we need to pursue.
Well, I agree you could never be elected President. Not so sure about the honest part however. It doesn't seem like you've made an honest appraisal of the difficulty of switching to natural gas. T. Boone Pickens has been trying for years, with little success, to make it happen. One of the few tools available to the government is tighter regulation of the oil and coal industry. Every time the president, EPA, or congress try that the oil and coal companies tell their Republican shills in congress to back off. It's even Impossible to eliminate tax subsidies for oil/coal companies.
Sounds like you are considering running for President. The "U.S. has a huge opportunity ahead of it" sounds like a typical campaign speech. Good luck convincing the oil and coal companies to fund your campaign.
A recent study concluded about 219,000-368,000 birds are killed by windmills. Cats kill 1,400,000,000-3,700,000,000 birds! Looks like cats are the main problem, not windmills. We need a windmill that kills cats.
Historically major climate change was usually the result of massive volcanic eruptions, major forest fires, and large meteorite impacts, according to many scientists. The result was global cooling, not warming. Those are very rare events but have happened. A more subtle cause of climate change is the movement of the solar system thru space. There are regions in space that are clean and other regions that are dusty. Dusty space results in a colder earth and clean space results in a warmer earth. There is no evidence the earth is currently passing thru space that is cleaner than normal.
You forgot to mention thr "over 400%" in losses last week by the other 6 pro traders.
Well, a week has passed and the stock failed to reach $15.50, per your prediction. I believe it is lower than it was last Friday. You need to "adjust" your predictive system, or entirely replace it. Don't make the mistake of invoking events over the past week to explain away your error. Be honest with yourself. You might discover a new system that works.