Another interesting post..but don't agree all the debt is unrepayable. The trillions in mortgage backed securities are already being repaid every time someone refinances their house at today's low rates, or sells their home, or loses their home to a bank (which then sells it). The new mortgages will not end up at the Fed. Eventually all those mortgage bonds will be paid off and disappear. But I do wish we knew more about the status of the Fed's holdings of mortgage backed bonds.
Very interesting post but disagree there was "relatively little pain felt to achieve their results". You must have been lucky. Millions are still underwater on their mortage. Millions more lost their homes. Countless businesses failed...still lots of empty storefronts. Unemployment is finally getting back to normal, after six years...and many believe it's much higher than the BLS says.
He was a great stock picker. My memory, however, is he recommends picking stocks you personally know more about than most people. For example, a local bank or manufacturer or franchise where you live (or work) that's prospering but their stock is depressed. Most of us have no personal knowledge of SDRL because it operates overseas. All we know is what we read...old news. Still, reading his book is a very good idea. Good luck,
I hope you are right about Iran. But what the Iranian young people think or want has nothing to do with it.
Two days after negotiations ended the entire Knesset resigned...many supported negotations. An odd coincidence? Tough Netanyahu is now in full command. The US Secretary of Defense resigned. Another odd coincidence? The Joint Chiefs probably told him a seven month delay is unacceptable, so he quit.
The Republicans take control in February and can't wait to attack. Neither can Netanyahu. I even expect Obama (reluctantly) to agree with congress. The Saudi's can't wait to get it over.
I hanen't read that book but can't imagine Peter Lynch investing a nickel in SDRL based on reading interviews of him years ago. But good luck anyway.
Supposedly the Volker Rule will be implemented in mid 2015. It may help deal with the "to big to fail" problem.
My biggest concern is Iran. I can't see Israel waiting seven months for negotiations to resume. I also can't see the new Republican congress waiting seven more months. In fact, I doubt even Obama will wait seven months. My prediction: an attack on Irans nuclear facilities sometime in the early spring. If that happens what happens to stocks, especially oil stocks?
Yes, Fed bond purchases increased a lot. After private sector greed crashed the economy the Fed ordered banks to strengthen their balance sheets (reduce leverage) and tighten lending criteria. Suddenly they can't make as many loans and the economy collapses. Is that what you want? Most of those bonds generate income for the Fed. I wish I owned them. More importantly, the banks could continue making loans and help the economy recover.
They don't refer to QE anymore as a Ponzi Scheme because...it isn't a Ponzi Scheme and never has been. The Fed has been buying bonds from banks for decades.
Canadians must fly from Canada or Mexico, not AZ. Americans can too, from Canada or Mexico. The Cubans do not stamp their US passport (I've been told).
I wonder how Republicans Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will respond. Both have Cuban parents and are ultra conservative anti-communists. Cuba is, after all, a communist country.
The Saudi's, in my opinion, are holding fast to put pressure on their arch enemy Iran. It's the only pressuring tool they have. They don't want Iran to get nukes. And I don't blame them for being concerned! I don't want Iran to get nukes either. Does anybody?
I agree. Many people see a conspiracy in every negative event. And of course one would expect billionaire CEO's to be privy to the conspiracy, and well prepared. Obviously it caught them by surprise too.
I did not follow your day by day posts. Did you predict last August that sanctions would lead to a huge drop in oil prices? Or did you simply warn us about the SDRL debt? If the latter you were wrong. The sanctions, not debt, caused the current situation. Please refer us to your August post.
A mistake we all made was to ignore the resignation of JF's top aid. Obviously he knew SDRL was headed for trouble.